Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Eskimo]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

-1’C now. Met Office automated forecast gives me 17 hours of snowfall tomorrow. Meh.

15 hours for here. Needs to be at least 18 for me to get excited.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, SSW said:

What are we cheering on here? The band from the North West to hit us. Followed by a main course of what's North  of us (2 bands?)  Hoping it comes south enough before it heads west?

What ideal conditions do we need which can be monitored?

Yep more or less.  From the models  it looks like the band from the NW  will either miss us to the west  or fizzle out before it hits us  then its all eyes on the fronts from the north.  Some models  bring the fronts  down to North of England  then west  avoiding us and hitting North wales.  Some have it  further south before it moves west.    Another point is that some models  including the met ( at the moment)  dont think  any snow will settle   only on high ground.  This maybe due to DPs  being slightly above marginal      At the moment so much uncertainty  its down to radar watching closer to the time.   As it stands  further North and West of the region  looks to be in the best sport  to see falling snow at least.    Could all change later though 

[Jason74]

14 hours of snow forecast by the Meto. I don't even bother getting out of bed for nothing less than 15. 

[Andypvfc]

17 hours for me, does that put me joint top with Matt

[weirpig]

The  cosmo  delivers again

[Derbyshire_snow]

Be amazed if it is anything but snow given that it is snowing on the east coast at sea level.

[Sparkiee storm]

As others have said, certainly not a done deal, but i do have a good feeling about this.

[BarometerCat]

Snow 6am - 7pm.  errm?  Surely no?  

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

As others have said, certainly not a done deal, but i do have a good feeling about this.

One thing i have noticed  with the met office automated    is that  the winds on there are from a north westerly direction  whilst the snow is falling.  Could be nothing   but surely that would limit the amount  the trough drops to our west?.    Just a thought 

[Sparkiee storm]

Just now, weirpig said:

One thing i have noticed  with the met office automated    is that  the winds on there are from a north westerly direction  whilst the snow is falling.  Could be nothing   but surely that would limit the amount  the trough drops to our west?.    Just a thought 

Yeah, could be onto something but hopefully it don't push too far East either if it happens. Even if not though seems like we are seeing some snow tonight and overnight and into early tomorrow with the main area

[Essan]

Was still -2c at midday when this was taken - now up to -1.7c though.   If we can keep below freezing till the front arrives, we have a chance, but expecting a gradual increase in temps as it appoaches

Edited January 7, 2021 by Essan

[MattStoke]

16 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

17 hours for me, does that put me joint top with Matt

I miscounted. It’s actually 18 hours. Time to get excited!  

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

One thing i have noticed  with the met office automated    is that  the winds on there are from a north westerly direction  whilst the snow is falling.  Could be nothing   but surely that would limit the amount  the trough drops to our west?.    Just a thought 

Could though be that winds higher up are coming from the north east?

[Essan]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I miscounted. It’s actually 18 hours. Time to get excited!  

Even Evesham has 15 hours of continuous "light snow" tomorrow     Albeit with never more than a 50% chance of precipitation.  So more likely a bit of patchy snow  on and off through the day.   But best I have seen for a few years ..... 

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Could though be that winds higher up are coming from the north east?

Maybe  Matt    maybe straw clutching      but  (and i know its automated)   but  at 7 this morning  the winds were North easterly at that time frame   and hardly any snow icons.      also the snow  symbols arrive earlier.    Something to watch anyway 

Also  the icon oand the hirlam  are totally different in regard to wind direction  Hirlam bring a NNE in at 2am  whilst the Icon keeps it at  Either a NW or NNW  out till  1pm

Edited January 7, 2021 by weirpig

[PolarWarsaw]

Couple of worries for me and I think it's a reason that the Met Office have gone with less accumulating snow to lower levels.

Looks like the main heavier stuff is likely to be fall later in the day now, whereas for most of this week it's been in the early hours.

Massive difference there because during the day light snow will melt/not accumulate sufficiently enough to keep it from turning to puddles. Given that the intensity of second band isn't all that great, it would be falling on to wet/puddles surfaces. So that will diminish things. 

The best time for falling snow is during the middle of the night, best chance of settling.

Great frost pictures this morning.

[MattStoke]

Met Office app now gives me 5 hours of snow this evening.

If I see a second less than 23 hours of snowfall in the next 36 hours, I’ll be outraged

[Andypvfc]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office app now gives me 5 hours of snow this evening.

If I see a second less than 23 hours of snowfall in the next 36 hours, I’ll be outraged

6 for me

[Easily sled]

Apologies for sneaking in - just wanted to say good luck for tonight/tomorrow, enjoy it and try and blow some down to us snow starved southerners (not a flake here...)

[chris pawsey]

So, may have just jinxed it! Just finished spraying my home made sled out of some very old ski's! Its ready... just need snow ❄!! 

[Shezale coventry]

The last 2 weeks of this cold spell i have constantly been looking at the beeb forecast and met office forecast to see if its going to snow and every time we have had snowfall in coventry both beeb and met office have got it wrong by ether forecasting rain or nothing at all. I mean in 2021 how can they be so off the mark? The only 2 things i will be looking at now is out of my window and the radar!

[Gord]

I’ve got to set off for work at 4am in the morning. Will the snow be here by then?

In other words, is it worth leaving my car on the main road tonight in case I can’t get out of my cul de sac?!

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Gord said:

I’ve got to set off for work at 4am in the morning. Will the snow be here by then?

In other words, is it worth leaving my car on the main road tonight in case I can’t get out of my cul de sac?!

Dont think it will be that bad Gord     Trouble is on Gornal/Sedgley mountain   everywhere  is hills. 

[Essan]

4 minutes ago, Gord said:

I’ve got to set off for work at 4am in the morning. Will the snow be here by then?

In other words, is it worth leaving my car on the main road tonight in case I can’t get out of my cul de sac?!

The first lot is expected down here by around midnight - so I would say leave your car on the main road, to be sure.

[Klippieboo10]

Have 4 hours showing for tonight and 17 hours tomorrow including two of heavy snow.

 

radar watch now.

latest run wasn’t  the best for return to deeper cold