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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
    10 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

    I cant see any cold shot lasting for more than 3 days tbh.. the energy on the eastern seaboard is as strong as it has been all winter.. crazy energy driving low after low... -20 in chicago

    Yes, just strange they couldnt see that when writing the update each day

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    2 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Yeah, come to think of it, it would be somewhat more of a kick in the teeth if I was in Lincoln this winter and Lincoln stayed in a dry slot between the snow showers further north and the organised snow further south, and Exeter actually got more, especially if Thursday's Atlantic attack does end up further south and slower to break through the cold block than modelled and Exeter gets a snow event from that.  I remember Norwich (and for that matter Abingdon) lay in such a dry slot in late Nov/early Dec 2010, though I didn't miss out altogether living in Norwich as there were snow showers there on 25-29 November before the easterly set in.  Living in Exeter on the other hand we don't normally expect much off the North Sea from an easterly and the breakdowns often (but not always) push too far north too quickly, so expectations from this type of setup are necessarily lower.

    I'm remembering that at one point (I think it was March 2006, just before Abingdon got hit in February 2007) Abingdon had such a snowless run of winters that I produced a map of expected snow depths and had a tiny area centred on Abingdon down as having "definitely nothing".  Actually, here it is:

    1032640526_expectedsnow.thumb.jpg.2d68f2e73b6c891d7c3aa52e9b43e23d.jpg

     

    I had forgotten about that, but impressed you remembered the December 2010 easterly fail. I remember your response to my astonishment at my location (and others further East) being in the same narrow 'green' corridor on the warning maps for three consecutive days whereas areas on either side were yellow/orange as it being like rolling a die (where anything other than one gets you a covering) three times and getting three 'one's'. Had it not been for the small Low/trough feature approaching from the south-west on18 December (which was only forecasted to go north of the M4 about 12 hours beforehand, we would have got nothing from that cold spell. March 2018 was an equally crap Easterly where what little snow we did get was too powdery and simply got blown against the sides of buildings and down cracks in pavements. The only accumulation we got from that was once the frontal snow tried to move in and even then 10 December 2017 was a better accumulation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yelverton, Dartmoor
  • Location: Yelverton, Dartmoor
    1 hour ago, gman88667733 said:

    I'm hoping that up on Dartmoor we will get some snow at least, which a lot of the charts seem to show. Probably not a lot, but a few cm would be nice!!

    I'm Dartmoor too. Maybe we'll be lucky, fingers crossed. Although my area did get a couple of inches just after New Year. It'll be pretty sad if people in the far SW get next to nothing again whilst watching most of the rest of the country turn white. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

    I think there must have been 3 troughs today, each giving around 45 minutes of heavy rain with several hours of sunshine/clear sky before and after each one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    55 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

    Tuesday close to very interesting on the GFS 12z:

    image.thumb.png.4e32b1775efe9b28eb88fc5e5e2384cf.pngimage.thumb.png.f409dab9b6edbe220535af518c3bbe0a.pngimage.thumb.png.8c8b5a904fe4c8084e9f7e2df1cf362b.png

    Yes, although in my experience these things correct south more often than not, it doesn't always happen, and certainly if that system nudges just a smidgeon further north on subsequent runs, those of us close to the English Channel coast would have a near-guarantee of a decent covering prior to the more marginal push from the south-west on Thursday.  For Thursday this GFS run has the scenario swebby mentioned earlier with the milder air pushing in from the south before the precipitation reaches us, resulting in nothing more than transitionary snow to rain for the north and east of the region.

    The latest UKMO run might have the same issue on Thursday but it, too, looks closer to delivering for near the south coast on Tuesday with the low to the SW deeper and closer than on earlier UKMO runs.l

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Yes, although in my experience these things correct south more often than not, it doesn't always happen, and certainly if that system nudges just a smidgeon further north on subsequent runs, those of us close to the English Channel coast would have a near-guarantee of a decent covering prior to the more marginal push from the south-west on Thursday.  For Thursday this GFS run has the scenario swebby mentioned earlier with the milder air pushing in from the south before the precipitation reaches us, resulting in nothing more than transitionary snow to rain for the north and east of the region.

    The latest UKMO run might have the same issue on Thursday but it, too, looks closer to delivering for near the south coast on Tuesday with the low to the SW deeper and closer than on earlier UKMO runs.l

     

    It is still 5 days out, in FL! Not always true. Think it was a few Sunday’s ago we had a low showing it more south and then a day or two before it trended north and we got rain/sleet on the coast and Things can trend north... although I think if it does trend north it will be southern coastal counties. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 hour ago, That ECM said:

    Beautiful day bar the odd sharp shower.😄

    79E988A7-5610-4568-AD3D-F75487F1A411.jpeg

    90C2E3EF-52C4-42E0-84AC-6797ED3B67CA.jpeg

    I put some of these on fb and my mate in Scotland said I was so lucky. All he’s had is bloody snow. 😩😩 well he said snaw cause they can’t spell up there. Come on, I’ll be up.😄😄

    41FF0A47-DCE0-4E2F-B907-FDF4518829AD.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    @chris55 That GEM snowfall chart you posted would be a great outcome! 😍

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    Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL

    Snow chances on the increase Saturday night into Sunday early hours for us? Seems an upgrade on this for us 

    Screenshot_20210205_173346_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20210205_173253_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20210205_173223_com.twitter.android.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Well the 12z has arrived and i'm still hesitant but looks like the cold is at least nailed on for us now we just need to find the snow. 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    I'll be polite as I have no idea who Dorset snow is, but you gotta love what is being fed to the local rag, and I quote

    “Areas that see the heaviest bursts of snow could see a dusting......." that much aye, well I'll be damned..yawn, time to go back to sleep, having spent a good couple of hours in the garden this arvy..night all..

    Edited by Dorsetbred
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    Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL

    Hmm, red warning for the SE do we think? Or something else? 

    Screenshot_20210205_184759_com.twitter.android.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Crediton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and Dry
  • Location: Crediton, Devon
    3 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Although I wasn't there at the time, I remember seeing reports that the Exeter area got a big dumping on 20 December 2010 (the Monday before Christmas, rather than the preceding weekend) with over 20cm in places, and with lying snow out to the sea front along the south coast of east Devon, though not as much in west Devon and generally nothing in low-lying parts of Cornwall.  I remember there being a lot of uncertainty over that one in the days leading up to it with some model runs (notably the GFS as per usual) deepening the low and sending it further north, which would have brought the dumping of snow further north but rain into the areas that ultimately got snow from it.  It was a very different kind of setup though (a northerly followed by a lobe of the polar vortex being stuck over Britain for a few days).

    I remember that vividly, I had to stay in Exeter because I had to get to work. I left the car at the health centre and didn’t manage to get it out for three days 

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

    I doubt this will be posted by a certain someone because the UKV actually looks good for a change. Could get a decent covering from this.

    4433.png


    EDIT: Also worth sharing what Man Without Beard just posted in the mod thread for some in here:

     

    13 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Worth a note - the extremely rare "channel streamer" sets up on the ECM on Tuesday - bringing snow to the most snow barren parts of the UK, South Devon and Cornwall, and possibly the IOW. Even the Isles of Scilly are in the sleet zone!

    Edited by MidnightSnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Keep those upgrades coming. Almost looking like what the ECM was showing a couple of days ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yeovil
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Yeovil
    8 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

    I doubt this will be posted by a certain someone because the UKV actually looks good for a change. Could get a decent covering from this.

    4433.png


    EDIT: Also worth sharing what Man Without Beard just posted in the mod thread for some in here:

     

    Looks good mate especially for the UKV👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Harmonie also looking decent for a dusting for the same areas covered above.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    19 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

    I doubt this will be posted by a certain someone because the UKV actually looks good for a change

    I've been busy, thanks.

    If that's a problem, PM me, instead of being rude.

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    Why do we all have secret identities on here anyway with made up names?

    So we don't confuse the South West thread with our Tinder profiles.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    The frontal attack from the SW doesn't even reach the east of this region on the ECMWF 12Z run tonight - I have mentioned a few times that the models often place these things further south, but it's also true that when they underestimate a cold block they also tend to place systems further west with successive runs. 

    It's an unusual evolution from cold easterlies to mild southerlies without any significant frontal precipitation in between, but in many ways better than a switch to mild wet and windy weather and consequent flooding.

    And yes, the ECMWF has joined the other runs in pushing Tuesday's low a little further north - I can see strong hints of a Channel streamer on its northern flank while the frontal system makes it into the far south-west.  A bit further north still, and some of the region could get a fair amount of snow from it, although admittedly that may increase the marginality in the south of Cornwall.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-09-19 10:28:59 Valid: 19/09/2021 1200 - 20/09/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 19TH SEPT 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
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