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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    31 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Tuesday's low increasingly looks like missing us to the south, so probably a dry spell for the west of the region up until Thursday, maybe the odd flurry as others have mentioned, maybe up to a few cm in places in the east of the region.

    Thursday's breakdown is still "up in the air" as far as I can see.  GFS and ECMWF have a snow to rain event in the north and east of the region with an all rain event for much of Devon and Cornwall, but the UKMO at T+144 (which so far has been verifying well) has the frontal attack further south, which might well result in more substantial snowfall for this region instead of the Midlands.  Also, it's not unusual for the models to revise this kind of setup further south with successive runs (like they did with Tuesday's low, which ironically looks likely to go too far south as a result).

    The thing is, it only has to track 50 miles  just a tiny bit north and we are in for a chance on Tuesday 

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
    3 hours ago, philglossop said:

    Can't say I can get enthusiastic about this spell. It all seems to far East for us and then when the Atlantic will come up, we hit 7c by Thursday according to the Met with rain.

    I'd like to be wrong. Bit I ain't hopeful. 

    Yep looking like that for our neck of the woods, even the moors are  not lookng great with  may be an hour of snow before the rain comes in. The angle of attack is all wrong for us from the atlantic

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    The problem I have with the saying "Models don't handle breakdowns well" is that it doesn't apply for a portion of our region. Less cold air may not move right across the country, but 99.9% of the time it does move in to the South or Southwest.

    Battleground events are notoriously poor for here, but It's something I have grown accustomed to, fortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth - Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow
  • Location: Bournemouth - Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The problem I have with the saying "Models don't handle breakdowns well" is that it doesn't apply for a portion of our region. Less cold air may not move right across the country, but 99.9% of the time it does move in to the South or Southwest.

    Battleground events are notoriously poor for here, but It's something I have grown accustomed to, fortunately.

    Agreed, I was talking more generally about models handling breakdowns, of course location, elevation are key, but my point being is once you have the cold air in situ, its the position and track of the low pressure that will decide if you get rain, sleet or snow or nothing at all and some models particularly gfs, tend to over do the deepness of pressure, altering its track.  Many a night I have watched a channel low primed to strike, only to veer off into northern France leaving us with a snizzle shower lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos

    I'm still optimistic about the coming cold spell. From experience I think snow flurries will make it across the region from the east. Anything from a dusting to a good covering the further east in the region you go. On top of that a biting cold wind and low temperatures should give a very wintry feel to things. 

    Then, maybe with a bit of luck, heavier snow for many as the Atlantic tries to move in.

    Then, if the Atlantic does win the battle in this area, it looks like the mild could be very short lived as more cold pours back in from the east. 

    A lot to be optimistic about in the tail end of the winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    Need that low pressure to be a lot more flattened & elongated rather than round shape as being rounded will just push mild air up into the south & south west. 

    Fingers crossed, I think its safe to say the models haven't got a grasp fully of what will happen later next week with that low pressure but as it stands right now any snowfall will probably be short lived & not the classic battleground event I was hoping we'd see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    If we get the cold and the precipitation disappears I would class this area as one (if not the) worst in the UK for snow! And I thought growing up on the Leicester / Nottingham border was bad! 😅 

    I have been down here since early December and you can probably count on one hand the amount of days when it hasn’t rained at some point, so I’ll try to remain optimistic about the next 4 days or so...

    🤞we can all get in on the action, just one day with a real good dumping will suffice, is it too much to ask for 🤪😭

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    image.thumb.png.4197e3ebbc40f68ac59231df7c2dbc93.png

    I took this from twitter @UKsnow_updates

    Shows some snow for parts of the region right down to the coast in some parts too.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A little rainbow action going on here:

    20210205_124637.thumb.jpg.cdfee7dae933e98b74812131f3f22216.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Low-lying Devon, especially south Devon, has always been on average one of the least snowy regions of the UK, albeit prone to occasional severe snowstorms as per 1 and 18 March 2018.  As we're seeing with the predicted frontal attack from the SW next week, it relies on the low pressure and fronts aligning favourably, but on rare occasions it does work out.  In some ways it is frustrating being in lockdown down here while this easterly is happening, for I expect to be in the Lincoln area next winter which is more guaranteed to get snow showers off the North Sea in an easterly and so it doesn't matter so much there if the breakdown is a snow to rain or all rain event, but there are no guarantees of anything like this happening next winter.

    I agree that if Tuesday's low was a little further north much of this region could see an all snow event from it, but in my experience if these things get revised, more often than not it tends to be a southward correction, which is why I see more potential from Thursday.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    35 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    image.thumb.png.4197e3ebbc40f68ac59231df7c2dbc93.png

    I took this from twitter @UKsnow_updates

    Shows some snow for parts of the region right down to the coast in some parts too.

    Classic example of the random nature of precipitation forecasts from Easterlies:

    1. Snow wrapping all the way around, yet somehow avoiding, Oxfordshire; and

    2. More snow in Devon than in Lincolnshire (for TWS).

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yeah that's true, it seems to be showing Lincolnshire in a dry slot in between showers to the north and the more organised activity to the south, and it has the latter extending across to Devon.  I remember when I came to Exeter for the first time in January-June 2009, the easterly on 2 February actually brought more and longer-lasting snow to Exeter than to the Tyne and Wear coast, as a snow shower came all the way across from the North Sea that afternoon and the trough that came in from the SE was an all snow event in Exeter but turned to rain along the north-east coast. 

    The long-term averages indicate that the odds are against though.  I just have to hope that this ends up as one of those easterlies that bucks the long-term averages.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Fingers crossed this cold spell doesn't become just a series of cloudy ice days with the best chance of snow being at the very end when it won't last... that would put it in the same category as, well, most cold spells.

    I'm hoping for surprises to pop up along the way or, even better, the Atlantic to stall against the cold block, as the West Country is often in the best place for such scenarios. Of course, the likes of Somerset/Gloucestershire/Wiltshire turn out very different to Devon/Corwall/Dorset. Then again, such is the nature of cold spells in this country. I can see there will be fisticuffs between the 25cm, 2.5cm and 0.25cm crew in the southeast in the coming days lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    13 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    Classic example of the random nature of precipitation forecasts from Easterlies:

    1. Snow wrapping all the way around, yet somehow avoiding, Oxfordshire; and

    2. More snow in Devon than in Lincolnshire (for TWS).

    The way that shapes around Oxfordshire lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yeah, come to think of it, it would be somewhat more of a kick in the teeth if I was in Lincoln this winter and Lincoln stayed in a dry slot between the snow showers further north and the organised snow further south, and Exeter actually got more, especially if Thursday's Atlantic attack does end up further south and slower to break through the cold block than modelled and Exeter gets a snow event from that.  I remember Norwich (and for that matter Abingdon) lay in such a dry slot in late Nov/early Dec 2010, though I didn't miss out altogether living in Norwich as there were snow showers there on 25-29 November before the easterly set in.  Living in Exeter on the other hand we don't normally expect much off the North Sea from an easterly and the breakdowns often (but not always) push too far north too quickly, so expectations from this type of setup are necessarily lower.

    I'm remembering that at one point (I think it was March 2006, just before Abingdon got hit in February 2007) Abingdon had such a snowless run of winters that I produced a map of expected snow depths and had a tiny area centred on Abingdon down as having "definitely nothing".  Actually, here it is:

    1032640526_expectedsnow.thumb.jpg.2d68f2e73b6c891d7c3aa52e9b43e23d.jpg

     

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.ecb458ed1f7073f65a4d3f88bd244ad4.png

    UKV's now picked up on that leading edge feature as the cold air cuts in.

    Signs are, this may have enough intensity to overcome any wet surfaces as it heads southwest.

    It's just the sort of feature that tends not to be well resolved until quite short notice. Of course, it may still change in detail. There's uncertainty over how fast that cold undercut it - how soon it reaches the feature (or does at all!).

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Fingers crossed this cold spell doesn't become just a series of cloudy ice days with the best chance of snow being at the very end when it won't last... that would put it in the same category as, well, most cold spells.

    I'm hoping for surprises to pop up along the way or, even better, the Atlantic to stall against the cold block, as the West Country is often in the best place for such scenarios. Of course, the likes of Somerset/Gloucestershire/Wiltshire turn out very different to Devon/Corwall/Dorset. Then again, such is the nature of cold spells in this country. I can see there will be fisticuffs between the 25cm, 2.5cm and 0.25cm crew in the southeast in the coming days lol.


    Yup, and I don't think this scenario is that far out of the question really. There's going to be proper cold embedded and I don't think the atlantic steamrolls through the country on the first attempt. I think parts of the West Country up to the Hereford and Worcester area will be in the best position for a stall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    The problem I have with the saying "Models don't handle breakdowns well" is that it doesn't apply for a portion of our region. Less cold air may not move right across the country, but 99.9% of the time it does move in to the South or Southwest.

    Battleground events are notoriously poor for here, but It's something I have grown accustomed to, fortunately.

    And on top of this - To me, it always seems that when a breakdown/battleground is forecast, the models inevitably go for fronts quickly intruding into the south west, thus suggesting snow initially for Cornwall/Devon/Dorset, when what actually happens is a slower affair allowing the cold air to be mixed out before the precipitation gets going, end result - cold rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Yeah, I hadn't really thought of that possibility (the cold air being mixed out and then cold rain), probably because I haven't lived in this area of the UK for that long (January-June 2009 and October 2014 to present) and don't remember experiencing any instances of that in this period.  I'm aware that the region missed out on potential frontal battleground snowfalls around 13 January 2010 and at times in January 2013, when snow accumulated over Dartmoor but not here.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    1 minute ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Yeah, I hadn't really thought of that possibility (the cold air being mixed out and then cold rain), probably because I haven't lived in this area of the UK for that long (January-June 2009 and October 2014 to present) and haven't experienced any instances of that in this period.  I'm aware that the region missed out on potential frontal battleground snowfalls around 13 January 2010 and at times in January 2013, when snow accumulated over Dartmoor but not here.

    Yeah, i think it's a case of the wind direction just being a few degrees in the wrong direction for a bit too long ahead of any fronts means less cold air over the channel inevitably gets dragged into the mix. By the time the fronts get NE of Bristol - leading edge is much more likely to be all snow

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth - Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow
  • Location: Bournemouth - Dorset
    11 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Yeah, I hadn't really thought of that possibility (the cold air being mixed out and then cold rain), probably because I haven't lived in this area of the UK for that long (January-June 2009 and October 2014 to present) and don't remember experiencing any instances of that in this period.  I'm aware that the region missed out on potential frontal battleground snowfalls around 13 January 2010 and at times in January 2013, when snow accumulated over Dartmoor but not here.

    I think the South West and South, especially close to the coast are really unlucky with this, we are always just on the wrong side of marginal and whilst everyone else south of the M4 is knee deep in snow, our lamp post watching is very much a cold rain affair lol.  Can make a person bitter over the years lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
    Just now, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    If we get the cold and the precipitation disappears I would class this area as one (if not the) worst in the UK for snow! And I thought growing up on the Leicester / Nottingham border was bad! 😅 

    I have been down here since early December and you can probably count on one hand the amount of days when it hasn’t rained at some point, so I’ll try to remain optimistic about the next 4 days or so...

    🤞we can all get in on the action, just one day with a real good dumping will suffice, is it too much to ask for 🤪😭

     

     

    Welcome to the West! It is quite rainy over here, but it has been particularly rainy this Winter! As for snow, well, it does happen, sometimes, not very often, but sometimes!

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    For next week, I'd rather have the weather we have right now, sunny and 11°C rather than cold and overcast. Milder from Thursday with yet more rain!

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    As hard as it to get snow in my location, I wouldn't trade it. Quite happy living in one of the most beautiful places in the world with miles of coastline and stunning purbeck walks. Then the possibility to see storms out to see from France. I wouldn't trade that for a bit of snow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Good afternoon, sunny with a breeze in from the south. 9.0°C

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    • Week Ahead: Bimbling lows keeping the weather unsettled, showery and cool

      Low pressure is going to keep doing its thing during the upcoming week, rolling in from the Atlantic, then hanging around to bring days of sunshine and showers with occasional longer spells of rain. Read the full update here

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