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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: BS15 8bx
  • Location: BS15 8bx

    You have to laugh about the MOD thread it’s like a game of Top Trumps. My prediction of snow totals beats your prediction. Grown up adults arguing about possible snow depths. Laughable really. Anyway let’s hope we Top Trump the SE by getting 40cm next Wed/Thurs 🤣🤣👍🏻👍🏻
     

     

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    Another reference in the MOD thread to 'only' 5 inches, for goodness sake.

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    Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

    I think there will be a decent snow event for more eastern parts of the region, especially over the Chilterns.

    5-15cm probable away from the south coast and west of the A34 (highway between Bicester and Winchester). Thats my guess. Maybe a little more over higher ground? Somewhere might get 23cm.......

    Hopefully there will be some snow later in the week for more of us in the region as Atlantic lows try to move in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

    Considering people in the MOD thread were making out this was going to be such an amazing cold spell, it doesn't look anything special. Looks dry for the next week, anyone else think this is a bit over hyped?

    Edited by Jayfromcardiff
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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Considering people in the MOD thread were making out this was going to be such an amazing cold spell, it doesn't look anything special. Looks dry for the next week, anyone else think this is a bit over hyped?

    It is an amazing cold spell will feel bitter but going by latest runs it is just that for the South west a nice cold spell. All expectations have now gone for me, were now relying on scraps to make it far enough west. Oh well was fun to dream while it lasted. I've had enough of the chase this year been nothing but a let down just want a decent spring and summer now and look forward to getting a good storm.

    Never know may get lucky with an odd disturbance in the flow but we really are now relying on rolling 2 6s of the dice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    14 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Considering people in the MOD thread were making out this was going to be such an amazing cold spell, it doesn't look anything special. Looks dry for the next week, anyone else think this is a bit over hyped?

    If you live East of Reading and North of Oxford  I suspect all your snow dreams will come true. Down here as always, we will be relying on showers making this far West.

    It will be cold here, but I think snow will be hard to come by.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    It is an amazing cold spell will feel bitter but going by latest runs it is just that for the South west a nice cold spell. All expectations have now gone for me, were now relying on scraps to make it far enough west. Oh well was fun to dream while it lasted. I've had enough of the chase this year been nothing but a let down just want a decent spring and summer now and look forward to getting a good storm.

    Never know may get lucky with an odd disturbance in the flow but we really are now relying on rolling 2 6s of the dice.

    Agree, model consistency for me is enough to not expect any great amount of snow this time round. It’s a SE affair, one that we very rarely do well out of unless you have a screaming easterly to blow the precipitation this far west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

    Arome for Sat into Sunday.

    Runs out of time, but it shows the general direction of travel as it fades.

    Obviously, West ain't best in the set up, but it's a start...

    anim_atj9.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    21 minutes ago, jtay said:

    Arome for Sat into Sunday.

    Runs out of time, but it shows the general direction of travel as it fades.

    Obviously, West ain't best in the set up, but it's a start...

    anim_atj9.gif

    Light dusting maybe going by that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    😄😄🙏🙏🙏❄️❄️❄️

    7D03E7FE-5D46-4F54-BBF2-3ABBA35F5B36.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    😄😄🙏🙏🙏❄️❄️❄️

    7D03E7FE-5D46-4F54-BBF2-3ABBA35F5B36.jpeg

    Lol a dusting on roof of cars at best 😂 Look at the temps for Wednesday and Thursday. Shocker. What a let down!

    Actually doubt it will even be a dusting look how much rain is before that lol. Might see a flake or 2 😂

    Edited by Rapodo
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    Lol a dusting on roof of cars at best 😂 Look at the temps for Wednesday and Thursday. Shocker. What a let down!

    IF we had 9 hours of light snow I don’t think it will be a dusting. 3 degrees max Wednesday 5 max Thursday. If snows Sunday it would be here for 4/5 days. Still a chance of something Tuesday. Not bad for a town at in the far south. Water can freeze.👍😄

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Yeovil
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Yeovil
    38 minutes ago, jtay said:

    Arome for Sat into Sunday.

    Runs out of time, but it shows the general direction of travel as it fades.

    Obviously, West ain't best in the set up, but it's a start...

    anim_atj9.gif

     

    That actually looks fairly promising

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Met office written text forecast has risk of snow for the east of the south west region on Sunday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    For Devon and Cornwall cold and dry sun to wed odd flake in the wind. Thursday Atlantic comes in wet not white. Our chance was Tuesday but with the low now appearingly sunk some half decent snow chances have gone too. But looking forward to some bitter temperatures. Potential ice day here on Monday!

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Morning All, the sun has just made it over the yard arm, a partly cloudy, some drizzle, BUT blue sky (in places) start to the day, currently 5.2°C after an overnight low of 3.1°C at: 05:18, no breeze this morning RH97% and pressure very slowly rising and currently is at 1008.1mb...the beach cam looking good this morning

    image.thumb.png.f0e6a30ce1061c4ea5d05c7493da4633.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom

    GFS 00 doesn't look too good for our region, hopefully can disregard.

    But the possibility is there for precipitation to be too Far East then too keen a warm up later in week with rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    It hasn’t even started yet and people are writing it off?! Come on people.. at least there’s something to focus on at the moment other than the mundane

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    Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

    Can't say I can get enthusiastic about this spell. It all seems to far East for us and then when the Atlantic will come up, we hit 7c by Thursday according to the Met with rain.

    I'd like to be wrong. Bit I ain't hopeful. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    General impression at the mo for Sunday:

    Rain turns to snow around 3 am plus or minus a few hours.

    Could be heavy for a time - signs of a more organised line orientated north to south - but will have to overcome wet surfaces to settle.

    Then, a regime of low cloud delivering snow grains but also, with any luck, some showers of actual flakes. By this time the dewpoint is zero or below so accumulation should occur readily - its just that there might not be that much to accumulate!

    Possible exceptions are if and where streamers set up as one or more could reach parts of the region and deliver more frequent mainly light snow showers.

    By Monday we may have lower 850s and some models hint at increased instability - it looks more ‘ripe’ for shower development.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gosport
  • Location: Gosport

    A high of 10.1c at 2pm yesterday, 9c at midnight, a low of 4.3c at 7:50am

    Misty early morning, the fog horns were noisy.
    Now a bright sunny start to the day.
    7.1c, SSE light wind, 1008.7 hPa

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
    10 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    That is not going to occur here, no way.

    You are close to the coast. Away from the coast a short distance (maybe 15 miles or so) we are not expected to see daytime maximums above 0c for 3 days

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    34 minutes ago, philglossop said:

    Can't say I can get enthusiastic about this spell. It all seems to far East for us and then when the Atlantic will come up, we hit 7c by Thursday according to the Met with rain.

    I'd like to be wrong. Bit I ain't hopeful. 

    Agreed.  Cold, dry - maybe the odd flurry.

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