Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 3.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    1 hour ago, fromey said:

    I would worry at this stage about snow forecast, where it’s going to fall and depths, it’s like trying to nail jelly to a wall! 

    I just proper pahahahaed at that!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    41 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    I can sense mapantz getting quietly excited.. 😲

    I doubt it very much! It will always rain on him and snow half a mile away. Poor sod! 😞

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    40 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    I'm gonna hold back expectations until friday 12z.

    If train doesnt derail by then Ill buy my ticket 😅

    I'm waiting for the train with you. I'm half way up the ramp though ...

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
    1 hour ago, AWD said:

    I think that model has been on the waccy baccy!!  😁😁

    Was just about the say that.

    Last week I set the GFS-P a test after it showed snow across our region on Saturday unlike other models that didn’t. It failed miserably but then so did other models that had nirvana for Wales and the Midlands. Instead, they had a day of watching it fall but not settle, just like we had last Sunday afternoon.

    So for me GFS-P is still a work in progress but it would be lovely if it were right for this weekend.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    53 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    So... UKMO and icon have the low tracking south which gives a massive dumping of snow! ❄️ GFS has it tracking north which would be ️Rain . Which will it be? Hopefully ECM backs UKmo 

    while not making any predictions, if you were asked to name the major model most likely to be ramming the Atlantic through too enthusiastically you would pick the GFS.......so you never know!!! 

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Well just caught up with the latest after walking the dog, I think regardless of what happens Sunday we will get snow in many places down here. Even if the breakdown does happen it would still be snow for a time before turning to rain. Met office favour sliders so in my eyes were doing okay to be fair after the fax and met office warnings.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    1 minute ago, Frank Trough said:

    while not making any predictions, if you were asked to name the major model most likely to be ramming the Atlantic through too enthusiastically you would pick the GFS.......so you never know!!! 

     

    Gfs has performed poorly in the last week and the GFS is poor with lows and always blows them up. I’ll always go with Uk met or ecm 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    2 hours ago, fromey said:

    I would worry at this stage about snow forecast, where it’s going to fall and depths, it’s like trying to nail jelly to a wall! 

    What like this you mean?

    image.png.24c622fe6a4ffafc32b92f3e45f50d24.png

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
    52 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    Well just caught up with the latest after walking the dog, I think regardless of what happens Sunday we will get snow in many places down here. Even if the breakdown does happen it would still be snow for a time before turning to rain. Met office favour sliders so in my eyes were doing okay to be fair after the fax and met office warnings.

    Have I missed something? The whole of the SW isn't under any warnings yet 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    52 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    Well just caught up with the latest after walking the dog, I think regardless of what happens Sunday we will get snow in many places down here. Even if the breakdown does happen it would still be snow for a time before turning to rain. Met office favour sliders so in my eyes were doing okay to be fair after the fax and met office warnings.

    Unused bag of road salt. Bought locally 8 years ago, never used, bargain @  £24...(by the end of next week, I'll be the sole owner in town with a bag of road salt...don't miss this bargain buy today)...

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    6 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    What like this you mean?

    image.png.24c622fe6a4ffafc32b92f3e45f50d24.png

    God dam you!!😂😂😂

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    58 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

     if you were asked to name the major model...

     

    Hmm let me see, Sam Fox maybe?

    I'll get my coat....🙈🙉🙊

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exmouth, Devon
  • Location: Exmouth, Devon

    Is it me or anyone else feeling deflated by the snow prospects for the south west 😔 Quick snow to rain event is not ideal 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

    This is why it's not worth getting too caught up in each model run because they change alot. No doubt tonight they'll flip back to a more favourable outcome.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
    11 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Well ECM isn’t the run we want 😢

    Certainly isn’t. GFS wasn’t great either for our region.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Aye, the slider on Tuesday largely misses us (though some light precipitation shown for the SW to the north of it) and then a swift snow to rain event on Thursday.  However, only a minor revision south would put our region in the firing line and sometimes these setups do shift southwards as we get nearer the time.  I remember the unexpected South West snowfall of 31 January 2019 was forecast to be over the Midlands about 4-5 days before the event before being modelled further south with successive runs.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    6 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Aye, the slider on Tuesday largely misses us (though some light precipitation shown for the SW to the north of it) and then a swift snow to rain event on Thursday.  However, only a minor revision south would put our region in the firing line and sometimes these setups do shift southwards as we get nearer the time.  I remember the unexpected South West snowfall of 31 January 2019 was forecast to be over the Midlands about 4-5 days before the event before being modelled further south with successive runs.

    Have you not seen ecm? It’s just stalling and completely misses all of us 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
    6 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    Aye, the slider on Tuesday largely misses us (though some light precipitation shown for the SW to the north of it) and then a swift snow to rain event on Thursday.  However, only a minor revision south would put our region in the firing line and sometimes these setups do shift southwards as we get nearer the time.  I remember the unexpected South West snowfall of 31 January 2019 was forecast to be over the Midlands about 4-5 days before the event before being modelled further south with successive runs.

    mettoffice saying we in firing line next week significant snow for are region as they regen the lies won’t push to far into country so you probably find be upgrades come near time for us  

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol
    48 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    What like this you mean?

    image.png.24c622fe6a4ffafc32b92f3e45f50d24.png

    Now that deserves a round of applause 👏 😂😂😂

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    9 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    Have you not seen ecm? It’s just stalling and completely misses all of us 

    Yes, I see a slider missing us to the south on Tuesday and then a quick snow to rain event on Thursday/Friday followed by cold air hanging on in the north, milder air in the south, and the cold air building back south/west at T+240.  I think there's a good chance that the Thursday/Friday event, being a week away, may get revised further south.  Ideally I would like the Tuesday low a bit further north though, and expect that one possibly to also end up a bit further south.  But the GFS 12Z does have a bit of precipitation over the SW to its north nonetheless.

    Edited by Thundery wintry showers
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    All in the hands if the weather Gods now regardless what models say regarding the breakdown. We're used to things being knife edge down here were a hardened bunch! Disappointing though seeing what the ECM did but things can just as easily swing for our favour yet though. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    28 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

    mettoffice saying we in firing line next week significant snow for are region as they regen the lies won’t push to far into country so you probably find be upgrades come near time for us  

    Where did Met say “firing line” 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Election weather- Still chilly with showers to dodge on May 6th

      Voting takes place on May 6th across Britain with Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections, Mayoral and local councils including for London Mayor. If you've not postal voted, what's the weather for Thursday? Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-05 09:08:00 Valid: 05/05/2021 0600 - 06/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 5TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Unseasonably cool & showery theme continues, wet & windy but milder this weekend

      Chilly with sunshine & showers by day for the rest of the week, where skies clear at night a frost is likely too. Turning wet & windy over the weekend, but at least it will be a little warmer. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...