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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    2 hours ago, Smartie said:

    Reading the outlook on the met office site they talk of any low pressure systems hardly making any inroads into the uk due to the high pressure to the north, this could bode well for us if systems stall trying to push in. 

    What quite often happens in scenarios like this (not that there have been too many of them in recent times) is the models tend to be too aggressive in their modelling of any approaching Atlantic depressions from the SW.  These normally get delayed and squashed down nearer the time and often don't get past Plymouth.

    The systems some modelling show encroaching from the SW mid next week probably won't even make landfall neater the time.

    My very early guess for the weekend and into the early part of next week is predominantly cold and dry for our region, with a noticable wind-chill factor.  Obviously can't rule out snowfall/showers/troughs nearer the time.

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants

    image.thumb.png.6386c0b42ceb22511094c0e38056e20e.png

     

    The UKMO looks amazing, that low going under the block along the channel. Some slightly milder uppers creeping in for the far south (i.e. me). Can't see dewpoints or anything but surely that would still be ok? Even for Costa del Bournemouth? 

    Anyway, it won't look exactly like that come tuesday.

    Definitely getting excited now which i feel is ok. It's late wednesday and we're talking about it getting properly going sunday - not long really 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    GEM looking promising earlier on too...

    spacer.png

    Edited by kumquat
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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    You gotta love it when you see the MOD thread go in to meltdown, pages and pages in minutes, and amongst all the Northern Boom talk, one comment of note

    " but there seems to be a not insignificant chance of some quite heavy rainfall across the South...."

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    12 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    You gotta love it when you see the MOD thread go in to meltdown, pages and pages in minutes, and amongst all the Northern Boom talk, one comment of note

    " but there seems to be a not insignificant chance of some quite heavy rainfall across the South...."

     

    ...and it was then corrected to “extreme south” just to rub it in a little bit more. 
     

    surely even we have a chance of seeing a flake out of this? 

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    17 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    You gotta love it when you see the MOD thread go in to meltdown, pages and pages in minutes, and amongst all the Northern Boom talk, one comment of note

    " but there seems to be a not insignificant chance of some quite heavy rainfall across the South...."

     

    How can we in the south not get anything its a BFTE for christ sake i'm in southampton and we better something

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight
    7 minutes ago, Chrisover93 said:

    How can we in the south not get anything its a BFTE for christ sake i'm in southampton and we better something

    Isle of Wight here 🙋‍♀️ we’re stuffed ugh!!! You never know maybe we’ll get lucky this time but generally here we just get rain 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: 145m ASL West Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe
  • Location: 145m ASL West Cornwall

    Still looking extremely knife edge for the extreme S/SW likes of here in Cornwall and Isle of Wight - looks like we may end up on the marginal side of 850s but dps perhaps still low enough? Although any frontal stuff moving up from the SW, I doubt we'd be looking at a Storm Emma with snow on immediate coastlines. All seems a bit so close but yet so far - still time for upgrades though ofc! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, kumquat said:

    spacer.png

    Wouldn't take much of a shift south to get some of us in the game on Sunday.

    If it does, we'll all be as excited as Susan P looks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    I am getting quite anxious about this snow. What are our chances (%) for tomorrow and for the midweek battleground (%)? I was confident up until I read the mod thread just now, but now I feel a bit deflated. Might just be my natural pessimism.......🙄😀.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 hour ago, kumquat said:

    Good to see us bordering on some interest for Sunday on ICON and GFS. Don't want to be waiting around until middle of next week! Hopefully it keeps upgrading nearer the time for all of the region.

    GFS 12Z

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    Icon 12z

    spacer.png

    And then you turn to a proper high resolution chart..

    viewimage.thumb.png.cc93970b91f0774dba3c693e37402388.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    11 minutes ago, noggin said:

    I am getting quite anxious about this snow. What are our chances (%) for tomorrow and for the midweek battleground (%)? I was confident up until I read the mod thread just now, but now I feel a bit deflated. Might just be my natural pessimism.......🙄😀.

    Chances for tomorrow??

    I can answer that one with very high confidence for you........

    Screenshot_2021-02-03-18-06-11-75.thumb.jpg.f7ffd920488f47c77316302e255f6385.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
    4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    And then you turn to a proper high resolution chart..

    viewimage.thumb.png.cc93970b91f0774dba3c693e37402388.png

    You need to change your name to party pooper lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    5 minutes ago, Smartie said:

    You need to change your name to party pooper lol

    You can guarantee that chart will be the most accurate of the winter 😂

    we’ll need something more than showers here. A trough, a channel slider....

    During the 2018 BFTE I was properly miserable with a tooth abscess so failed to enjoy any of it. 
     

    never been better at present so what’s the betting? 😀🕺🏿

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

     I'm not one to obsess over 850hpa temp charts much, as I think they are over-analysed far too much in the MOD thread, but I couldn't help raise an eyebrow to this chart;

    Screenshot_2021-02-03-18-34-10-40.thumb.jpg.d1fc74824744cb9504357171eda99d7a.jpg

    -12c 850hpa temp over my locale being forecast by the 12z EC Det next Tuesday, in a brisk easterly wind will feel rather cold to say the least.

    The old woolly hat might have to make an appearance next week, of only for a few days.  Only comes out on notable cold spells.

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    Posted
  • Location: 145m ASL West Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Anything severe
  • Location: 145m ASL West Cornwall

    Again not particularly snowy for the SW but ECM 12z has -7 for West Cornwall mid week, that's rare to see! 

     

    Screenshot_20210203_185125.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol

    After a fleeting glance into the mod thread... I've retreated to a more local, benign thread. There will be snow for us in Brizzle next week.. thats my prediction, I've nailed my colours to the mast, do with it what you will 😆👍👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
    Just now, AWD said:

    Chances for tomorrow??

    I can answer that one with very high confidence for you........

    Screenshot_2021-02-03-18-06-11-75.thumb.jpg.f7ffd920488f47c77316302e255f6385.jpg

    Thought as much........🙄😎

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    19 minutes ago, noggin said:

    Thought as much........🙄😎

    There's not much chance of anybody south of Hull seeing anything until Sunday, Noggin. Just 'cos you live in a coal pit doesn't make you special 😛😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Certainly for this west facing part of dartmoor these type of easterlys present dry but cold weather. Once the cold is on all eyes on the Atlantic to see what moisture can buff up against it!

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    2 hours ago, Smartie said:

    You need to change your name to party pooper lol

    Or realist?

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare

    You have to laugh sheikhy just posted in the Mad thread ‘

    I think come the weekend it wont be snowmageddon as the charts show now but more in the form of showers!!that band of snow for saturday keeps shifting south!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
    19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Or realist?

    Snow is rare in these parts. I've seen heavy snow forecast for it to be kept out in the Channel. Bitter Easterly with Channel lows produce the best here but its so finely balanced. 99/100 if there's marginal you can bet it won't snow. If there's a band crossing, it will fizzle. I agree with your realism. Not a flake so far this season. I will believe it when I see it

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    2 minutes ago, snowysouth said:

     If there's a band crossing, it will fizzle....

    Which band, Westlife, Beautiful South,..?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
    37 minutes ago, matty40s said:

    Which band, Westlife, Beautiful South,..?

    Surly Bucksfizz!

     

     

    37 minutes ago, matty40s said:

    Which band, Westlife, Beautiful South,..?

     

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