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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    15z UKV also similiar, "bolstering" the snowfall intensity quite a bit compared to previous output.  All to play for, for large parts of the West Country.  Will definitely be an interesting 24 hours or so, although the downside being an early Sunday morning alarm call may be required.


    Running through the animation, it looks like it will hit our neck of the woods around 7-8am. Hopefully that's correct because that's just about bearable on a Sunday morning.

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    Just now, SilverWolf said:

    Fairly large clustered showers are forming just behind the main (fragmented) band in Ireland. Cant be a bad thing! Nearly everything is showing up as snow away from the coasts... 

    I'll grab my umbrella...

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:


    Running through the animation, it looks like it will hit our neck of the woods around 7-8am. Hopefully that's correct because that's just about bearable on a Sunday morning.

    I normally find rain bands often arrive and depart and hour or two earlier than forecast, I got a feeling it will be the same with this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Looks like all the models have an onshore wind tomorrow am along the south coast, maybe some freezing rain for a time here but can’t see dp’s staying subzero and can’t therefore see any snow. Probably the closest we’ll get to snow this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    11 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

    I'll grab my umbrella...

    That is in Ireland! Hope it gets cold enough for us all... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey
    15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Looks like all the models have an onshore wind tomorrow am along the south coast, maybe some freezing rain for a time here but can’t see dp’s staying subzero and can’t therefore see any snow. Probably the closest we’ll get to snow this winter.

    Yep correct the onshore wind will mean no snow for all of us along the coast only need to go 10/15 miles inland and it should all be snow

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    5 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

    Yep correct the onshore wind will mean no snow for all of us along the coast only need to go 10/15 miles inland and it should all be snow

    Should be ok for ferndown then 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    20:00 Euro4 forecast;

    21012320_2312.thumb.gif.6249524e7dfe277d3cdb04c8030a12bf.gif

    Vis 19:50 radar return;

    Screenshot_2021-01-23-20-00-39-98.thumb.jpg.3941ff46b16107c69cccaf789ee33636.jpg

    A bit further east than forecast, no notable difference in terms of north/south placement at this stage.

    Snow over Ireland not of interest to us though.  It's the developing southern flank of the band to the south of Ireland that we need to watch.  This should swing NE overnight.

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    image.thumb.png.4aa6d0e5b5221cda3624a597faebd171.png

    Latest Met Office is an upgrade for me 🤞❄️

    Also notice the snow in the evening - that may be due to a pivot and it sinking back south again?

    Edited by Leon1
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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    20:00 Euro4 forecast;

    21012320_2312.thumb.gif.6249524e7dfe277d3cdb04c8030a12bf.gif

    Vis 19:50 radar return;

    Screenshot_2021-01-23-20-00-39-98.thumb.jpg.3941ff46b16107c69cccaf789ee33636.jpg

    A bit further east than forecast, no notable difference in terms of north/south placement at this stage.

    Snow over Ireland not of interest to us though.  It's the developing southern flank of the band to the south of Ireland that we need to watch.  This should swing NE overnight.

    Looking it on the radar it does seem to be moving at a pace from west to east, it would probably slow as it begins to slide, hopefully grinding to a halt over us

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, fromey said:

    Looking it on the radar it does seem to be moving at a pace from west to east, it would probably slow as it begins to slide, hopefully grinding to a halt over us

    12z EURO4 (using this model as it is most favourable for our region) has it beginning to pivot and slide over Ireland in next hour.  Snow over Ireland forecast to pivot and start sinking SW as the band over the ocean to the South of Ireland starts to swing NE, over the SW of the UK.  Essentially everything "should" start to move in an anti clockwise direction soon.  🤞🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Estimated arrival on dartmoor has been brought forward an hour to 1am. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

    Looks like we will miss out on the Isle of Wight, but hope the rest of you get lucky!  Fingers crossed February will deliver even more widespread for us Southerners!

    Enjoy the chase everyone!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    Latest met office update on their youtube channel is saying & I quote 'significant snowfall in Northern Ireland, southwest England & wales', sounds nice, we'll see what happens.

    Video was uploaded 3 hours ago so not sure how accurate the data is now though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    What time is a good time to be setting an alarm?  I'm off to sleep early rather than staying up...

    Edited by Leon1
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Can anyone find somewhere, anywhere in the world (that’s not a Rocky little island) that is less snowy than parts of the south coast of England west of the IOW at 50degrees north? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Yeovil
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Yeovil
    Just now, Smartie said:

    Latest met office update on their youtube channel is saying & I quote 'significant snowfall in Northern Ireland, southwest England & wales', sounds nice, we'll see what happens.

    Video was uploaded 3 hours ago so not sure how accurate the data is now though. 

    Don't care how accurate it is ,i'll take it

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    5 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    What time is a good time to be setting an alarm?  I'm off to sleep early rather than staying up...

    05:00am.  Not saying it will be at Bath then, but it should be on our doorstep.  If it isn't, something's gone boobs up!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    05:00am.  Not saying it will be at Bath then, but it should be on our doorstep.  If it isn't, something's gone boobs up!!!

    4.30 here. 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Sheikhy in the midlands thread!!!!!! is saying it's much further north!!!!!!!! than forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, Nights King said:

    4.30 here. 😄

    Met Office radar projection for 06:00 tomorrow morning;

    Screenshot_2021-01-23-20-44-39-98.thumb.jpg.25ae4c4b74dfb731f972c450cae8963a.jpg

    Some decent intensity PPN there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    Sheikhy in the midlands thread!!!!!! is saying it's much further north!!!!!!!! than forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😁

    Not enough exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   😁😁

    I can't see much difference in the north/south situation, but it is definitely further east than forecast.

    21:00 Euro4 projection;

    21012321_2312.thumb.gif.9c4653b4d74fc772e5822186a140bf45.gif

    Versus the 20:40 radar return;

    Screenshot_2021-01-23-20-48-51-18.thumb.jpg.6decd80009ce38a502eb0f1619297b3b.jpg

    Definitely further east but I can't see much difference in northwards extent, bearing in mind, with it being further east, we have to move the Euro4 projection further east to counteract this.  Northwards extent on both is Northern Ireland?

    Edited by AWD
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    1 minute ago, kumquat said:

    Sheikhy in the midlands thread!!!!!! is saying it's much further north!!!!!!!! than forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😁

    Agree that's what the ECM is predicting plus look at the radar. It's def moving further north.

    1 minute ago, kumquat said:

    Sheikhy in the midlands thread!!!!!! is saying it's much further north!!!!!!!! than forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😁

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Cold. Thuderstorms
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire.
    11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Can anyone find somewhere, anywhere in the world (that’s not a Rocky little island) that is less snowy than parts of the south coast of England west of the IOW at 50degrees north? 

    Edited by Smokeone
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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    8 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    Sheikhy in the midlands thread!!!!!! is saying it's much further north!!!!!!!! than forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😁

    I don't think it is.

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