South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[AWD]

It's worth noting, as per the 09z UKV output, that this model actually takes the front across our region as far north/north east as Glos/Wiltshire before stalling/pivoting it and bringing it back S/SE again, giving parts of the West Country a couple of spells of snow.  Just one outcome to keep an eye on.

[Nights King]

9 minutes ago, AWD said:

Meto yellow advisory has been updated;

Glos, Wiltshire, BANES, Hampshire, Oxfordshire at highest risk.

I need to see an amber for more confidence.. 

 

[SilverWolf]

I must admit looks like where I am (Stroud, Glos) has a good possibility... temperatures look to be around -2c here before it arrives (if it does!), and if the Met Office animation is right the pivot could keep the snow going most of the day. Won’t take heavy snow to settle either. 
Good luck to everyone, maybe we’ll all see at least a bit. 

[AWD]

In house NMM model shows further snow showers across parts of the region later tomorrow, after the main band has passed through;

18z tomorrow evening.

Edited January 23, 2021 by AWD

[Glenosnow]

Afternoon all.....A beautiful sunny day and currently 6.0C after an overnight low of -1.6C....69% rh and  the faintest whiff of a sw breeze.

So..............I hear it's going to snow tomorrow.......would be great to get some sort of covering eh....fingers crossed we all get a decent amount....Good luck all ❄❄

[offerman]

1 hour ago, iceman1991 said:

Upgraded snow more now for my area hopefully this continues 7 hours of snow 

Nice one iceman 

will get 3hrs of snow here between 6am-9am then from 9am until midday sleet . 
 

but I Will be happy to see some snow and I wish everyone lots of snow that wants it

[iceman1991]

16 minutes ago, offerman said:

Nice one iceman 

will get 3hrs of snow here between 6am-9am then from 9am until midday sleet . 
 

but I Will be happy to see some snow and I wish everyone lots of snow that wants it

Hi offerman yeah pretty sure everyone should at least see some snow just check and it’s another upgrade again 12 hours of snow hopefully will be a feb 2019 episode again as that would be great will all just have to wait and see  

[fromey]

I expect this word to be used a lot tomorrow 

[chris55]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

It's worth noting, as per the 09z UKV output, that this model actually takes the front across our region as far north/north east as Glos/Wiltshire before stalling/pivoting it and bringing it back S/SE again, giving parts of the West Country a couple of spells of snow.  Just one outcome to keep an eye on.

The pivot could be key to depths, how far it pushes north before it starts wrapping back around will be a big factor. As always in these situations it will be a case of looking out of the window and watching the radar. Some lucky places could see 10cm plus I would think.

 

Always love these kind of snow days and its a Sunday which is nice.

[chris55]

1 hour ago, SilverWolf said:

I must admit looks like where I am (Stroud, Glos) has a good possibility... temperatures look to be around -2c here before it arrives (if it does!), and if the Met Office animation is right the pivot could keep the snow going most of the day. Won’t take heavy snow to settle either. 
Good luck to everyone, maybe we’ll all see at least a bit. 

Hey Silver, hopefully it'll pivot right over Stroud Snow all day.......

[Dorsetbred]

Afternoon All (Is it safe to return yet?)..anyway a warm sunny afternoon with the current temperature of 5.9°C, marginally lower than the daily high. Feels warmer than that as the wind has really backed off, so nice time out in the garden.. The bulbs are certainly using the warmth, to grow ever upwards...

Edited January 23, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

41 minutes ago, fromey said:

I expect this word to be used a lot tomorrow 

Is PIVOT the same as TWIZZLE? Or is it used in a different concept?

[fromey]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Is PIVOT the same as TWIZZLE? Or is it used in a different concept?

I will have to look that one up 

[saintkip]

Lovely day so far, beat Arsenal in the cup and the GFS saying 12cm of snow for Basingstoke tomorrow, I expect that to change 

[MattTarrant]

Southampton are definitely providing us with plenty of smiles this season! Good start to the weekend! 

[Kreftysoton]

6c here in Netley today sunny and feeling quite warm, just cant see anything other than rain for southampton and surrounding areas tomorrow...i hope im wrong though.  

[AWD]

Latest UKV output brings the PPN in a but earlier tomorrow morning;

A fairly narrow band of moderately heavy snowfall across my most parts.  The key to any semi-notable accumulations (above circa 3cm) will be location of any pivoting.

[Nights King]

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest UKV output brings the PPN in a but earlier tomorrow morning;

A fairly narrow band of moderately heavy snowfall across my most parts.  The key to any semi-notable accumulations (above circa 3cm) will be location of any pivoting.

Already set my alarm clock for 4.30am 

[snowlight robbery]

Oh well .. better get the  Poole, Bournemouth and Purbeck snow shield out then! Guess we'll just see our normal predictable rain as always!

[AWD]

Just for amusement (not a fan of accumulation charts as they always seem overly optimistic), but the 06z Euro4 this morning forecasts some rather widespread and modest accumulations;

Sorry if you live in that green bit over Weston super Mare. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by AWD

[Nights King]

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just for amusement (not a fan of accumulation charts as they always seem overly optimistic), but the 06z Euro4 this morning forecasts some rather widespread and modest accumulations;

Sorry if you live in that green bit over Weston super Mare. 

I worry with the northern adjustment on latest runs we have less chance of getting the pivot action.. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

16 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just for amusement (not a fan of accumulation charts as they always seem overly optimistic), but the 06z Euro4 this morning forecasts some rather widespread and modest accumulations;

Sorry if you live in that green bit over Weston super Mare. 

Glad I don't live in Cardiff anymore! That's another area with no snow

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Glad I don't live in Cardiff anymore! That's another area with no snow

Shouldn't you rename "JaynotfromCardiff" then? 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Shouldn't you rename "JaynotfromCardiff" then? 

Haha too much effort . I now live in Caerphilly which is nearly 100m above sea level so not a bad thing.

[jethro]

5 hours ago, Leon1 said:

This is the satellite image for 2nd Feb 2019, looks like it only snowed inland. It pivoted and ended up snowing for about 18 hours if I remember correct. 

We got about 15 to 20cm, I think it ended up being just more than what we got from Storm Emma.

If we get anything close to Feb 2019, all of you will be able to hear me shrieking.

In the 20 years of living here, all our best snow has been in February, several deep falls in that month - best of all February 2009. Can't find any pics of 2009, (on a disc somewhere downloaded from a dead computer) but these are from 2019. Can't see tomorrow coming close to this but I'm hopeful at some point in February we should get a good dumping.