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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    11 minutes ago, SouthernSnowFan said:

    It was touched on yesterday, but I'm really interested to know what brought that epic dumping in January 2010 to our parts? (The dumping which was suggesting 40cm for Southampton, it was lowered to around 15-20cm though).

    Thinking back that far, it feels as if this was quite an evolving situation but for the life of me, I cannot remember what the forecasts or models were showing for this. None of the historic threads in the model forum go back that far either.

    I'm just clutching at straws really, what do we need for a similar event? Was it a channel low that pushed a touch further north and ran across the southern quadrant?

    The member 'Weather-History' might be able to help you with more accurate details than my anecdotal waffle. Maybe TWS will recall it, although I don't think he was in an area that experienced much of the impact?

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  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

    Help needed please with something I’m struggling to understand.

    two things.

    The first is if you look at the radar in the north showers are coming in from the North Sea making their way in land going all the way over tops and mountains right over to the west coast.

    The mountains are not hindering those stream of showers at all.

    why is that?

    secondly the streamers further south are really struggling to make their way over to western areas. there is a dark orange patch over Milton Keynes Way which is just stationary over there yet the main flow is east to west so why is that not shifting anywhere and why is it staying in one place when there is no high ground in comparison to Yorkshire where those showers are actually making it all the way from one coast to another?

     

    thanks if any of you can put some rationale onto this for me please 🙏🥶

     

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  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    We really are at  the weeble end of any snow in this part of the country!

    Can't even get a descent shower pass over.

    The wait continues!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    11 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    It doesn't seem to be decaying much, given the increase in size and intensity throughout the day so far?

    It does look like it will wax and wane in situ, not making westward progression but moving west on its eastern flank. Frustrating given where it could potentially end up if it was moving across! Not seeing many reports regarding what conditions are like underneath it?

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  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Well after a brief flurry earlier and some excitement about the streamer setting up its gone a bit pantz 🙄

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    Posted
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Winter- Cold, frost, snow. Summer- Warm and thundery.
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
    13 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

    The BBC should be banned from using apps! 

    Screenshot_20210208-144907_BBC Weather.jpg

    Screenshot_20210208-144900_BBC Weather.jpg

    4% chance of heavy snow! Get in!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    33 minutes ago, AWD said:

    It's a streamer that this particular model is forecasting for southern Cornwall, pretty much on/off all day tomorrow;

    Screenshot_2021-02-08-14-31-31-24.thumb.jpg.cf05cccdbb77d98c6dfda62064a51010.jpg

    Very localised, but should you be lucky enough to be under it, you could get a decent covering.

    I see that the low has trended too far south for us 

    Are any models showing up with this steamer?

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    9 minutes ago, offerman said:

    Help needed please with something I’m struggling to understand.

    two things.

    The first is if you look at the radar in the north showers are coming in from the North Sea making their way in land going all the way over tops and mountains right over to the west coast.

    The mountains are not hindering those stream of showers at all.

    why is that?

    secondly the streamers further south are really struggling to make their way over to western areas. there is a dark orange patch over Milton Keynes Way which is just stationary over there yet the main flow is east to west so why is that not shifting anywhere and why is it staying in one place when there is no high ground in comparison to Yorkshire where those showers are actually making it all the way from one coast to another?

     

    thanks if any of you can put some rationale onto this for me please 🙏🥶

     

    1089225361_Screenshot2021-02-08150502.thumb.png.c6bab128c8d7c600fb996d3c72f00320.png

    Analysis chart at midday:

    Three convergence zones and a decaying upper warm front.

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    The sun has melted my snizzle 😞

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  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    I see that the low has trended too far south for us 

    Are any models showing up with this steamer?

    Will have a look over next couple of hours when 12z data comes out.

    Getting kid from school, forgot to wear gloves, hands are slowly freezing over, can barely type.

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  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    11 minutes ago, Pea said:

    It does look like it will wax and wane in situ, not making westward progression but moving west on its eastern flank. Frustrating given where it could potentially end up if it was moving across! Not seeing many reports regarding what conditions are like underneath it?

    I'm in Aylesbury and the heaviest snow has been to our northeast never quite making it here except for a few instances. Very strange how the heaviest precip decays juuuuuust as it gets to the town lol.

    Constant snow here for a fair few hours now but it's not amounting to much! A bit on the grass. Pretty disappointing in that respect but at least I can see it falling!

    I'm sure a 20 minute drive to the northeast it's winter wonderland!

     

    20210208_141807.thumb.jpg.d73de55cf011561b5909d85439807b1a.jpg

    Edited by JamieUK
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  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & storms.
  • Location: Calne, Wiltshire

    Taken this from @danm in the SE thread. Is it anything for us to get hopeful about?

    0A53EAD2-3431-4FBA-9DE9-C05BF400225D.jpeg
     

    I won’t pretend like I know what it means😅

    Edited by Calneee
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  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey and mild!
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
    22 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    If I recall correctly that it was a decaying cold front from the north that somehow developed a low pressure system along its line as it moved slowly south and as it hit the south coast it started circulating moisture from the Channel back northwards into the flow so it kept it going from around 4pm throughout most of the night. We were in an almost unprecedented red warning zone 24-48 hours beforehand (I thought it had to be some sort of error) and was the heaviest fall/accumulation of snow we had here this century.

    Yes If I recall it stalled right over Oxfordshire and gave a 20-30cm dumping! Very tasty! 

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  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
    6 minutes ago, Calneee said:

    Taken this from @danm in the SE thread. Is it anything for us to get hopeful about?

    0A53EAD2-3431-4FBA-9DE9-C05BF400225D.jpeg

    Doesn't seem to be as it doesn't look as though it's going to move in our direction....

    Edit... see Mapantz posts earlier for an explanation why 🙂 

     

    Edited by wiltshire weather
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  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    1089225361_Screenshot2021-02-08150502.thumb.png.c6bab128c8d7c600fb996d3c72f00320.png

    Analysis chart at midday:

    Three convergence zones and a decaying upper warm front.

    Thanks Mapantz, appreciated . 

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  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey and mild!
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire

    Blizzard alert! Lol (well compared to what we've had so far!) 

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  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    15 minutes ago, AWD said:

    for areas further north and east in the region, it screams stalling fronts and where those fronts stall, snowfall.  IMBY admittedly, but something to straw clutch for those of us further north and east in the region, sorry guys further south and west.  

    Yeah I've been hesitant to post charts in FI, but many charts support this. If we get unlucky on Thurs / Fri, there's going to be more attempts from the atlantic next week. This isn't your bog standard easterly, so you'd think temps will be on the right side of marginal for many of us. I think we're safe from hearing the dreaded 'Snow north of M4' line for a little while. Might have about 50 miles leeway for a change.

    Edited by MidnightSnow
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  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole

    It certainly will decay according to the Met Office, see screenshots below of expected precipitation at 16:00, 17:00 and 18:00.

    DE8499A8-BAF1-4CE8-81AF-4FEA227D7BB0.png

    AE18DDE0-D245-41E5-9956-76286153A796.png

    ECD617D5-CC22-40BE-BEBB-D4DB499DA666.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

    Arome 12z goes with bits and pieces into tomorrow, then a bit of a streamer South of the M3 in the morning.

    anim_dsv0.gif

     

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  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

    It's an almost stationary decaying upper warm front.

    If it was decaying , how come it intensified snd stayed stationary .

    thanks for explaining btw. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    2 minutes ago, jtay said:

    Arome 12z goes with bits and pieces into tomorrow, then a bit of a streamer South of the M3 in the morning.

    anim_dsv0.gif

     

    Southern Cornish streamer again being modelled @Skullzrulerz

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Southern Cornish streamer again being modelled @Skullzrulerz

    Knocker will be pleased. 🙃

    Edited by jtay
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