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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    I have 50% chance of snow suddenly appeared the met office app for 2am. Must say the yellow warnings are actually quite impressive. They certainly must be thinking things will pick up. They favour snow over ice on my wording. 

    Edited by The Moving Planet
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Indeed... "Daily accumulations of 2-5 cm are probable for some, with 10-15 cm plausible in areas where showers merge into more organised and prolonged spells of snow." applies to an area reaching all the way down to Dorset from the northeast.

    Really will be a lottery. Well okay, more like a generous local raffle in terms of % chance 😁.

    No escaping that there will be a real mix of cheer and disappointment on this thread in the coming days, though. This exacerbated by the travel restrictions - though of course travelling would be risky anyway!

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    Temp staying annoying high, currently 2.0c 

    Not dropped for a few hours. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    Interesting animation from the 12z Arpege that demonstrates how it thinks the shower distribution will pan out over the next 24 hours.

    4ACdHgzXO2.thumb.gif.bf447b0ca4fd98fe720c4df8dfac12c3.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Really surprised at the comments in the south east thread. Thought the radar all day looked good. Take it it's been really light or sleet?

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    Countryfile forecast filled me with hope.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Possibility of streamer down the channel mentioned here to bring snow to S Devon and Cornwall??

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dursley
  • Weather Preferences: 4 seasons please
  • Location: Dursley
    7 minutes ago, The Moving Planet said:

    Really surprised at the comments in the south east thread. Thought the radar all day looked good. Take it it's been really light or sleet?

    I think everyone in the amber warning area took it as guaranteed that they'd all be getting 10cm+ of lying snow. The reality of it is that some have and lots of others haven't. But that is the fickle nature of snow in this country! 

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
    5 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

    Countryfile forecast filled me with hope.

    What did they say ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
    Just now, iceman1991 said:

    What did they say ? 

    Streamers tonight, Monday and Tuesday, mild air trying to come in Thursday looks like stalling and cold reinvigorating thereafter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight
    19 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

    Interesting animation from the 12z Arpege that demonstrates how it thinks the shower distribution will pan out over the next 24 hours.

    4ACdHgzXO2.thumb.gif.bf447b0ca4fd98fe720c4df8dfac12c3.gif

    Do you think this will reach the Isle of Wight at all? If so when? Ta

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

    Streamers tonight, Monday and Tuesday, mild air trying to come in Thursday looks like stalling and cold reinvigorating thereafter.

    Similar to latest EC Det then (and GFS to be fair too).

    Those in more northern and eastern areas of the region won't be seeing anything "mild" for the foreseeable future IF either of these models prove to be correct tonight.

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
    2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

    Streamers tonight, Monday and Tuesday, mild air trying to come in Thursday looks like stalling and cold reinvigorating thereafter.

    Thanks for that blizzardof82 lets just hope we  all get some snow 

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    Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset

    Just skimmed through the latest ECM run. Looking rather dry to me. A huge welcome break from all the recent rainfall to give parts of the region a chance to dry out a bit. 

    Friday’s potential snowfall looks to be really struggling to make inroads. Still a long way off for any forecast certainty.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: NE Hants
    48 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

    To be fair that isn’t true! Bournemouth has seen plenty of snow events with it settling on beaches. It just depends if the off shore breeze turns it to rain! It’s right timing with the winds! 

    It’s all relative, though. There are obviously examples when we did ok - perhaps better - compared to everywhere else. But they’re memorable because they don’t happen very often. I’m not complaining, it’s just geography. Just have to accept it.

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain

    Can anyone remember feb 2009 well  was similar set up and we had lots of snow and I remember one day wasn’t predicted till late notice and snowed all day were they streamers atall ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    1 minute ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

    Friday’s potential snowfall looks to be really struggling to make inroads. Still a long way off for any forecast certainty.

    That's the downside of the latest model output.  Whilst northern and eastern districts of the region have an increasing prospect of remaining cold throughout the week and into the weekend, the sacrifice of this is that any frontal snowfall from the SW doesn't get as far across the region.

    Seems like getting COLD AND PPN at the same time is a rather difficult and tedious task.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater, Somerset

    Just noticed on Wunderground someone up the road from me has a weather station. It's reporting 2c and a dewpoint of -6c

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    As expected from Ian, for the next 24 hours or so;

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Latest high Res UKV extended at least gives most of the region some snow.  Shows and increasingly fragmented front crossing the region overnight Thursday, into Friday morning, falling as snow for most of us away from Cornwall and coastal areas of Devon/Dorset;

    IMG_20210207_191014.thumb.jpg.4e10d86f77e622a091f278adb9997296.jpg

    IMG_20210207_191043.thumb.jpg.09f6e879a2966649a275e5e3f2e6dc5f.jpg

    IMG_20210207_191117.thumb.jpg.111aaceea939405de4cbdea4ab7a2e14.jpg

    It would be far from historic, but it would provide some much craved snowfall for many at least.

    To add, whatever snow does fall and settle would at least stay for a while and not quicky melt away, with the UKV keeping many areas north and east of Exeter cold to very cold still, these are the temperatures forecast at 15:00 on Friday afternoon;

    IMG_20210207_191538.thumb.jpg.2d40a51991531c3b49093c07e70c1f17.jpg

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Waterlooville
  • Location: Waterlooville

    Well we have v light snow in Waterlooville, it's from the finger of decaying snow that's took all day to get here from just east of Brighton 🤣🤣 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Really like John Hammond . He loves the cold and snow .

    In terms of that Channel streamer . The flow is expected to change to a more easterly and then as that shortwave low approaches from the west this will cause the flow ahead of that to change to a more ese then se and this gives the possibility of that moving into parts of Cornwall and Devon and perhaps parts of Dorset . 

    Good luck, and fingers crossed this delivers .

    Haven't exactly looked into the models today as been quite busy 

    At least for the SW there is a chance though low confidence for now there might be a bit of snowfall for these areas 

    However it seems more likely to we have a better chance of snowfall in Cornwall on Tuesday then Friday as it seems to be raining 😞

    From a location point of view we need to cold air to stay further west though any changes seems to small 

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