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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    Where on earth are all the showers? What is the point in getting colder uppers if that is all they achieve?

    I'm assuming that the long range global models are not going to show shower activity very well at that timescale.

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  • Location: bath
  • Weather Preferences: Anything under4 deg. In winter and anything over 20deg in the summer!
  • Location: bath

    Don’t give up hope for snow in our region yet because the as the low slips further SE and the easterly wind increases there is likelihood that ‘fingers’ of snow showers will develop and reach us especially overnight and tomorrow

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  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Morning all, nowt exciting happening here, unless you count my snowdrops in full bloom which I find exciting, they're my favourite flowers.

    It's grey, damp and a bit breezy, doesn't even feel cold. I know the mad thread is ecstatic when an easterly sets in but personally speaking, they don't do a lot for me. Over here in the west we just end up grey, cold with a smidgeon of snow if we're lucky, very very rarely does it result in copious snow here. Those historic battleground events are more elusive than beasts from the east, more myth and legend than expected weather. Will this time be any different?

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  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    You can see streamers are slowly setting up already these will increase further from Monday into Tuesday. We were very unlucky last night. Precip pushed in way further west. If the cold had undercut quick enough it would of been snow.

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  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

    I take it the air profile/ skewT isn't yet unstable as we're too close to the front - I expect we'll see flurries as it moves away, and especially as the winds turn E 

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  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Remember I've been posting the Netweather Medium range model over the last couple of days, showing a forecast snow event over inland parts of the region towards the end of the week.

    Well, the latest 0z run has gone a similiar way to other global modelling, with the front now forecast to barely make it into Devon/Dorset/South Somerset area.  This is the furthest east the front gets, early Friday morning, before it fizzles;

    IMG_20210207_090554.thumb.jpg.562044d2647f106517673c03b27e075d.jpg

    This therefore leaves areas north and east of Somerset dry, and continuing cold to very cold right into next weekend, as per the below charts;

    IMG_20210207_090332.thumb.jpg.67640c4449c02d845df8d11bef3a510a.jpg

    IMG_20210207_090435.thumb.jpg.d2ecbb0354fa061277d8b48902eb7911.jpg

    IMG_20210207_090507.thumb.jpg.218e7c1ae0f57ae18321f7b64b45f23f.jpg

    The above are for mid afternoon ("warmest" time of day).

    Whilst it's still a fair way off, and still very much subject to change, the general broad brush trend is for any Atlantic frontal activity to really struggle to get very far NE, thus leaving many of us eastern and northern members cold but dry. 

    Further South and West across Devon & Cornwall in particular, things are still rather more uncertain, with snow possible over Devon and slightly milder air possible over Cornwall come Friday.

    The above, to varying ranges of detail as you would expect at this timeframe, is similarly being shown by other, common global models.

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  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Showers look to start spreading across the region by sometime between 9 pm today and 3 am Sunday, judging by the spread across the models.

    Not much predicted by most but with such a cold flow and SLP on the low side for a continental easterly, I find it hard to believe that there would only be very sparse activity and very localised streamers.

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  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Latest UKV output actually quite bullish with regards to snow flurries/showers making it this far west over the next 48 hours.

    Nothing significant, but I expect many of us may see some falling snow over the next couple of days.  Flurries possible anywhere from early hours tomorrow morning;

    IMG_20210207_091639.thumb.jpg.a6bdbf230831c73aa6efac8521340b44.jpg

    With a cluster of showers now being shown to make its way over Central Southern England later tomorrow morning;

    IMG_20210207_091726.thumb.jpg.950868eeb1a4dd161d93e75f6860d4f9.jpg

    IMG_20210207_091802.thumb.jpg.c8d7ac1dfcbf40657359eada5c20272b.jpg

    Followed by further showers for our southern member tomorrow afternoon;

    IMG_20210207_091848.thumb.jpg.4f7fce58d420769ced3d1449563b5e71.jpg

    Nothing significant forecast, but for those who don't care about that and would just like to see falling snow, every chance you could see some over the next couple of days.

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  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    This looks like turning out to be a grim spell for this location. Freezing cold, grey and windy.

    I absolutely cannot wait for Spring.

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  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
    25 minutes ago, kumquat said:

     

    Off to play geoguesser Battle Royale 🤪

    👌

    My daughter has just discovered this and is addicted, whilst on furlough. She asks "how many geo coins do you have?"

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  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

    We have a few snow grains falling at the moment. Exciting times. 🙃

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  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
    Just now, AWD said:

    Final "chart post" from me for this morning, 03z UKV extended now coming into range for Thursday/Friday.  Very similiar to other model output, the front giving snowfall to Devon and even Cornwall on this run;

    IMG_20210207_092604.thumb.jpg.a03afae36821a92396391923e44e0ea9.jpg

    IMG_20210207_092636.thumb.jpg.0c1baf55c3df0e746a7bbbc6c9cbd8f1.jpg

    Before fizzling out as it reaches areas further north and east.  This is about as good as it gets for the Bristol/Somerset area for example;

    IMG_20210207_092711.thumb.jpg.cbc95e1cb9160136d7bdb75ccb7da2be.jpg

    Therefore, milder air manages to get into Cornwall, majority of the rest of us remain cold to very cold but dry and snowless;

    IMG_20210207_092803.thumb.jpg.02c253614449e4a72e91b6019d8c4875.jpg

    Your posts are very much appreciated, AWD, thank you! 👍😀

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  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    None over night but bbc forecast just now shows showers streaming into westcountry from this evening.

    Interesting 🧐

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  • Location: Gosport
  • Location: Gosport

    A high of 9.9c mid afternoon yesterday and a spell of rain showers from 8pm to 11pm, 0.2mm
    Temp was 5.2c at midnight and been falling slowly since then.
    Was one of those days yesterday when the condensation stayed on windows for most of the day.

    Started off a light grey morning, but blue sky is now appearing through the grey clouds
    Now, 3.3c, 1004.6 hPa, NNE 10-13mph wind with plenty of 18-22mph gusts.

    Always found the Meteocil site to be a good quick radar check.
    It is getting closer, maybe something for us here if it keeps moving west towards us.

    spacer.png

     

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  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Few snow grains here too. Given the 850s are still dropping and the flow is currently at its least favourable of the next few days, I’m daring to be a little encouraged by that.

    Here, I’m merely looking for some ‘scenic’ snow as a baseline -  a slight covering in fields, that sort of thing. Wouldn’t mind a bit more than that though...!

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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    18 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    None over night but bbc forecast just now shows showers streaming into westcountry from this evening.

    Interesting 🧐

    Just seen that forecast, look like plenty of showers packing in right over the country including our region. Louise even mentioned the Moores of the SW, and Wales. 

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  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

    As per @AWD excellent posts, the latest 6z GFS is beginning to pick up some of these streamers such as this overnight/tomorrow morning:

    image.thumb.png.a5b2abf2a23573c0cfc0b1de725d9aa4.png

    Encouraging signs....

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  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos

    I swear we were having a few snow grains here in Yate a few minutes ago but it might have just been my cigarette ash swirling about in the breeze!

    Anyway plenty to be positive about. The chance of snow showers making their way over to our region over the next few days and still the chance of more prolonged snow as fronts stall over us. With the outlook cold/very cold nothing that falls will be disappearing in a hurry. All good!

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  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    Cloudy. Breezy. Odd Sunny Spell. 1.9c Humidity 80% Rh. 

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  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL
  • Location: Seven Springs, Cotswolds 212m ASL

    Few snow grains up here too (on morning run). See if you can spot them....

    A2793A51-1582-4EDF-AAFB-220025CDA725.jpeg

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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Euro 4 highlighting the favourable angle on the streamers coming in NE/SW as storm Darcy pulls away. Certainly possibilities of these showers making it over the Westcountry with a stiff breeze. If you are lucky enough to be in the direct line of one the streams the showers could just keep coming.

     

    Nothing to dramatic, but will be interesting to watch this evolve into tomorrow.

    CAA17C04-8371-47E2-90A9-D747F270BAE5.thumb.png.cd7cb32308bfcaf77dc78c4e0f50add5.png

     

     

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