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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

    It was clear to see from the get go it was far more west and timing was wrong when precip came in. Clear to see a quicker undercut is happening too. Watch what happens the moment those winds turn to the north. Snow line will drop further South.

    Might be less than an hour before we find out?

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    Just been out to collect a parcel from the front door,  as I came back in I shouted to my daughter  " cor that wind would freeze the b***s of a brass monkey"  Didn't realise she was on her t

    Ah the regional thread where innuendo and gin used to be king. Where we would get excited at the lamp post, share in each other joys.  The thread was a place to escape the real world (even more this y

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    Just now, Blue max 90 said:

    Seems to be this area of precipitation that is turning to snow as the cold air undercuts. Could well be a covering 

    Screenshot_20210206_225135.jpg

    Do any of the short-range H-Res models (ICON/Arome/Arpege/Harmonie/UKV/NMM/EURO4/Hirlam/Net-WX) actually have this modelled correctly in their latest outputs for this timescale? Because if none of them do, then there is little point worrying about the exact detail of what they are/are not showing over the coming days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    1 minute ago, kumquat said:

    Temp has risen to 4.1C and DP is 3.3C so hope that drops quickly before the ppn hits. Also hope the ppn stays intact. Fingers crossed, cider flowing, sausage baps on hold for now.

    Yes ,similiar here.  

    Seems we have a much higher temp/DP than other areas of the region.  Will have to drop markedly and very quickly to see anything of note here IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
    2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    Temp has risen to 4.1C and DP is 3.3C so hope that drops quickly before the ppn hits. Also hope the ppn stays intact. Fingers crossed, cider flowing, sausage baps on hold for now.

    Put the sausage baps on Kumquat I’ll bring the daddies sauce over 😉 (other sauces are commercially available) 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

    North-eastern corner has breached 4C as of 11pm = 3.9C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    4 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Yes ,similiar here.  

    Seems we have a much higher temp/DP than other areas of the region.  Will have to drop markedly and very quickly to see anything of note here IMO.

    3.4 here but its stopped rising now so hopefully will drop away soon!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    3.5°C here but stopped rising.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    3c here dew point 2.7

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Probably as soon as the rain starts falling the temps will begin to drop rapidly 

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    Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
    5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

    Do any of the short-range H-Res models (ICON/Arome/Arpege/Harmonie/UKV/NMM/EURO4/Hirlam/Net-WX) actually have this modelled correctly in their latest outputs for this timescale? Because if none of them do, then there is little point worrying about the exact detail of what they are/are not showing over the coming days.

    Screenshot_20210205_173253_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.a8c76e84392ee79f6d607d4995ffc9e9.jpgScreenshot_20210205_173346_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.4dc78016f65fffd867736d1d3c9068ac.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    This is going to be really close tonight anywhere from Poole east and north Dorset. To me it looks like the undercut is happening quicker. Really interested to see what happens the moment the winds switch north east at 12pm. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire 98m ASL
    Just now, Blue max 90 said:

    Screenshot_20210205_173253_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.a8c76e84392ee79f6d607d4995ffc9e9.jpgScreenshot_20210205_173346_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.4dc78016f65fffd867736d1d3c9068ac.jpg

    ICON and euro 4 had a decent stab yesterday, assuming it turns out that way - they were less keen today 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    38 minutes ago, AWD said:

     

    At this rate, by the time we get to Thursday/Friday, any Atlantic frontal PPN probably won't make it past Truro and many of us will remain very cold (albeit less snowy).  🙄🙄

    18z MAXIMUM 2m temps for next Saturday afternoon;

    Screenshot_2021-02-06-22-30-43-14.thumb.jpg.a7e403d85f47beef1c2fda7316ec828e.jpg

     

    Heating bill for this month looks like going through the roof!!

    Exactly. Cold, dry, heating on a lot.

    At the risk of upsetting some on here - roll on an early warm Spring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

    Exactly. Cold, dry, heating on a lot.

    At the risk of upsetting some on here - roll on an early warm Spring.

    Agree with this if the snow is not forthcoming. At least the pattern of Scandi/UK high from next week onwards looks like things will dry out a bit. Sun has been quite warm in suntrap areas of the garden when it gets out.

    Edited by kumquat
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Holy moly, been out cooking for the missus' dad tonight (we're in a bubble) and hadn't seen the 18Z

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Arome vs radar check at 23:00. Slightly further west, possibly slightly more organised toward the east than it suggested. Haven’t got any of the other models to compare to 🤷🏼‍♂️

    40CFC640-6991-4E85-AF13-9F820CED210D.thumb.jpeg.b2e6d924b7b60791e044dd25ed0bf840.jpeg3DFD3ACB-6EE2-4E38-AAF7-24B1190D2CAD.thumb.jpeg.c6441d9000d05cc4b1a47e02cc16f115.jpeg

    Edited by dec10snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Whatever your weather preference, the weather will do what the weather wants to do.  Going my all current medium range modelling, Spring looks a long way off currently.

    As ever though, things can change.  We could be having a BBQ in our gardens next weekend, or we could be digging ourselves out of a blizzard.  😁😁

    Edited by AWD
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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
    2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    Holy moly, been out cooking for the missus' dad tonight (we're in a bubble) and hadn't seen the 18Z

    spacer.png

    That is what you call a beast

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

    Holy moly, been out cooking for the missus' dad tonight (we're in a bubble) and hadn't seen the 18Z

    spacer.png

    Only 16 days to go!🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth
  • Location: Weymouth

    Cloud & light rain now in Weymouth. Hoping for better things in the next couple of  hours.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Glos 102m a.s.l
  • Location: Stroud, Glos 102m a.s.l

    Rain approaching current temp 3.8°C raise of 0.2 in last hour but now seems stable DP 2.8°C.

    Intensity is a lot more than I thought it would be fingers crossed the transition keeps up and everyone gets a nice surprise.

    Cracked open the blackberry whisky to herald the start of this cold spell. 

    Good luck over the next week all! soo hope everyone can enjoy some snow🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell

    All temperatures in the west around me are rising but right now the two that have reversed the trend are to the east of me 👍the cold is coming ❄️ ( Website design and station weather data © Martyn Hicks 2004-2021)

    B4233522-07D6-4E61-A347-3D0485B90D7A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Only 16 days to go!🤣

    True, but the models do look like they've been shaping up for something along these lines. The abrupt about-turn of what's going to happen with next week's low has been pretty eye-opening. I know we're not there yet but the propensity for HP building again does look on the cards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    Snow/rain border starts just south of Reading now. Probably should expect temps to drop as soon as the precipitation gets near or starts.

    Edited by Leon1
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