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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight
3 minutes ago, snowysouth said:

Looking at all the information the rather predictable downgrades have started for us in Dorset, on the coast. Met office predicting sleet. I wish I could understand WHY it is so hard to get snow here. We used to get it all the time until the late 80s. 2010 now seems to be a once in a generation event. We never get upgrades here. Attention moves to next week now I think! 

Same here on the Isle of Wight always marginal never a cert generally rain or sleet same old these days!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
4 minutes ago, snowysouth said:

Looking at all the information the rather predictable downgrades have started for us in Dorset, on the coast. Met office predicting sleet. I wish I could understand WHY it is so hard to get snow here. We used to get it all the time until the late 80s. 2010 now seems to be a once in a generation event. We never get upgrades here. Attention moves to next week now I think! 

Unfortunately, the WBFH never get's below 200 -300 metres for our neck of the woods, by the time it does, the precipitation has gone.

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Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

Yes, def looks like the chances for tonight/tomorrow are diminishing as we speak, but you never know! I'll still be watching it on the NW radar to see how it unfolds.

Met office long range updates have changed again (for the good):

 

Thursday 11 Feb - Saturday 20 Feb

A cold start to the period with strong easterly winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over northeastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south, although there is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England on Thursday. As the period progresses, it will be remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western and northern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and southeast. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but possibly becoming increasingly settled by the end of the period.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sat 6 Feb 2021

Saturday 20 Feb - Saturday 6 Mar

After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas through this period, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

Edited by wiltshire weather
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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Well that was very sleety in Plymouth City and  suburbs about 45 mins ago. A real wintery mix! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol

Gfs picking up on something for Bristol Thursday/Friday next week (seen on xc, which uses that, I use xc for wind forecast for work)? Fully aware its a forecast which may as well be next year but it might be sniffing at something. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest forecast for SW England over the next few days;

Screenshot_2021-02-06-15-31-50-10.thumb.jpg.242bacd56eab39f0d2f8c994f58847b5.jpg

Keeps the possibility of a little snow to inland areas Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Also "snowy showers"??!!  What's the difference between a snow shower and a snowy shower? 

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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

iCON 12z has snow in South West of our region

image.thumb.png.9dbad9e30b4eb4642b5fa7572c0bc773.png

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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

I think Devon and Cornwall and parts of Dorset might do ok this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
12 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Aspege and icon 12z take it into the channel again every 6 hours it changes. The icon had it up to Bristol S.Wales earlier

Icon still has it making it up most of the West Country though at least but it will change again I'm sure!

image.thumb.png.a580b5015a0fb8bb87ad759f684ec9b2.png

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
7 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

iCON 12z has snow in South West of our region

image.thumb.png.9dbad9e30b4eb4642b5fa7572c0bc773.png

Also highlighting the Thames streamer potential ahead of the low as winds veer ENE. 

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Does anyone remember that really small feature (mini low?) that came in from the east and skirted along the south coast one year and took everyone by surprise with quite a lot of snowfall years back? Must have been at least 7 years ago? What was it and when was it?!

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: snow, cold, ice, frost, thundersnow,
  • Location: NE Hampshire, England, United Kingdom
2 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Thames streamer? Where would that cover 

It is very faint on that model, but areas near the M3/M4 between Salisbury Plain and Thames estuary would be at risk. Streamers will be hard to model in advance.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

GFS has the snow to far South yet again. Feel like this is slipping away. Just a 50 mile shift North would do it. Will go down to Radar watch this week and hope we get enough Ooomph to shift things west in the showers. At this stage ill be happy to see a flake!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

GFS has the snow to far South yet again. Feel like this is slipping away. Just a 50 mile shift North would do it. Will go down to Radar watch this week and hope we get enough Ooomph to shift things west in the showers. At this stage ill be happy to see a flake!

It’s just really bad luck in the south west this year. Seems like the whole country as seen snow but us. It is what it is 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

GFS has the snow to far South yet again. Feel like this is slipping away. Just a 50 mile shift North would do it. Will go down to Radar watch this week and hope we get enough Ooomph to shift things west in the showers. At this stage ill be happy to see a flake!

Same. Not had a flake since 2018 I think now. I am snow starved

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Does anyone remember that really small feature (mini low?) that came in from the east and skirted along the south coast one year and took everyone by surprise with quite a lot of snowfall years back? Must have been at least 7 years ago? What was it and when was it?!

Was that overnight November 30th/December 1st 2010? A little area of instability and it delivered a nice covering ( I was in locks Heath then). It was modelled in advance though.

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

Snow to the East of here and snow to the South of here! Might have to go and visit family in Exmouth for a fix! ❄

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

Sat out in the Sun with a pint and it's absolutely glorious.

IMG_20210206_160919591_HDR.thumb.jpg.3a834c562320048273eeb9fe9811eea9.jpg

If Saints weren't losing, it'd be perfect.

 

 

Edited by jtay
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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
18 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Icon still has it making it up most of the West Country though at least but it will change again I'm sure!

image.thumb.png.a580b5015a0fb8bb87ad759f684ec9b2.png

I've seen this before. Few years back now. We had weather warnings for heavy snow and it just sat out in the Channel. I will believe it when I see it falling 

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