South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[SteveB]

One thing models tends to do is underestimate temperatures. Just checking back over temperatures during the 2018 BFTE and March the 1st never got above -2.3c and the 2nd -0.7c.

At the time I remember Ian fergusson had us down for 2-3c and this one on the points of West the night before. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by SteveB

[Blizzard]

On my early morning bike ride I had ice (from frozen water droplets) falling off trees & pinging off my cycle helmet, ground wasn't frozen - but the air was below zero.  That count as a wintery hazard?  

Edited February 6, 2021 by Blizzard

[festivalking]

45 minutes ago, gman88667733 said:

My MO app showed snow tonight at 2am for a good 6 hours and now just shows fog. What ?!

What part of the moor are you on?

[offerman]

1 hour ago, fromey said:

I’ll take that thank you

Morning Fromey 

 

any chance you could post a link to that forecast whenever I go onto the app all I see I just maps and warnings I can’t actually see a forecast. is this only available from the web browser not the app ? 
 

thanks 

 

should be powder snow for us as well Sunday through the week

[Frosty_wsm]

46 minutes ago, gman88667733 said:

My MO app showed snow tonight at 2am for a good 6 hours and now just shows fog. What ?!

Wouldn't waste your time with that if I were you, with the snow last Sunday that app was showing rain here the night before, then it was showing a few hours of heavy snow, then it showed snow turning to rain & then it showed it staying as snow.

In other words, it's an utter waste of your time to keep looking at that app, my advise is to watch the met office weather videos on their youtube channel, they post updates throughout the day. 

[offerman]

11 minutes ago, offerman said:

Morning Fromey 

 

any chance you could post a link to that forecast whenever I go onto the app all I see I just maps and warnings I can’t actually see a forecast. is this only available from the web browser not the app ? 
 

thanks 

 

should be powder snow for us as well Sunday through the week

Found the forecast 

[gman88667733]

20 minutes ago, festivalking said:

What part of the moor are you on?

Other side of Haytor/Hound Tor.

[gman88667733]

15 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Wouldn't waste your time with that if I were you, with the snow last Sunday that app was showing rain here the night before, then it was showing a few hours of heavy snow, then it showed snow turning to rain & then it showed it staying as snow.

In other words, it's an utter waste of your time to keep looking at that app, my advise is to watch the met office weather videos on their youtube channel, they post updates throughout the day. 

I did think that. It seems to change by the hour

[khodds]

Morning peeps! How we feeling today? I’ve full of nervous excitement combined with model fatigue. We are touching distance away now on whatever we might be getting.. 7c here currently, what times the cold air meant to arrive?

[MidnightSnow]

1 hour ago, Smartie said:

Things suddenly looking a lot more interesting aren't they, I wonder if that front on Thursday ends up stalling on the south west, if it makes it this far at all that is & the flip in the mid term on the models is awesome to see with a scandi high looking to build. 

And before all that Tuesday is looking interesting as well for those further south & south west although it looks like I'll be too far north east to benefit. 

This is what I've been waiting to show up... pretty good upgrades today. I still think this is our best chance of significant snow. Although I'd take what's on offer tonight which seemingly came out of nowhere yesterday.

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, khodds said:

Morning peeps! How we feeling today? I’ve full of nervous excitement combined with model fatigue. We are touching distance away now on whatever we might be getting.. 7c here currently, what times the cold air meant to arrive?

Underwhelmed. Possibly light snow for hour or so due around midnight; maybe flurries tomorrow; possibly some snow later into next week for some of our area. That's it, as far as i can tell.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd say definitely increased chances for this area of the region on this morning's runs.  I still doubt that it will be quite cold enough tonight, but increased chances of some sleet or snow tonight if it stays heavy enough while getting this far west.  Tuesday's low is on a knife edge with some runs having it over most of the region and others having it just to my south, but overall I'd say another slight northward shift from yesterday's 12Z runs, so if the trend keeps up, some of us will probably get something. 

Increasing chances of the frontal attack on Thursday bringing a South West battleground event followed by a cold dry regime, rather than pushing the mild air north and east.  It could still be that either Devon and Cornwall get rain and the snow is confined to the N and E of the region or the systems don't even make it in, considering that it's still five days away, so there are no guarantees, but certainly increased potential.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not looking great for Central Southern England. A bit peeved seeing all the posts from folk in eastern regions being the sole beneficiaries of this cold spell

[sukayuonsensnow]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not looking great for Central Southern England. A bit peeved seeing all the posts from folk in eastern regions being the sole beneficiaries of this cold spell

Central Southern England is probably one of the most difficult regions to forecast right in these setups. I do think we will see some snow, maybe 2-3in by Monday is my personal guess. That said go a little more towards Basingstoke/Newbury and they may see very little snow until later in the week.

Much of the heavier snow is to the east of us - but it wouldn't take much for the winds out of Storm Darcy to throw in a Thames streamer for us. Of course forecasting streamers is never easy, and some of us may get 4in+ of snow while 10 minutes down the road gets barely a dusting. We are east enough to be at risk of snow flurries or streamers from the east, but west enough to increase that uncertainty. We are also east and north enough in the event of a battleground situation to take notice. There are no substantial hills over to our east to block off precipitation there (that would get in the way), so geography is also on our side - but it comes down to locality.

Pay-off events can still happen though. We'll have to stay tuned to the forecast and keep an eye on the radar.

[Nights King]

Nice to see warnings of snow everywhere except for the west country on met office.

 

Surely we can strike it lucky once over the coming days?

[festivalking]

47 minutes ago, gman88667733 said:

Other side of Haytor/Hound Tor.

Excellent spot for wintery weather from the east! Where as I'm the polar opposite I'm west of really high ground. Not much from the east gets through.

[festivalking]

44 minutes ago, khodds said:

Morning peeps! How we feeling today? I’ve full of nervous excitement combined with model fatigue. We are touching distance away now on whatever we might be getting.. 7c here currently, what times the cold air meant to arrive?

2.43am

[sukayuonsensnow]

For those of us in the northeast of the region, we need to keep an eye on the wind direction after Storm Darcy during Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday. It wouldn't take much to bring a Thames streamer down the M4/M3/A3 and affect many adjacent areas, with considerable snowfall locally. Especially when you take the low pressure on Tuesday into the equation.

28th February 2018 late we had a Thames streamer ahead of Storm Emma. The exact synoptics of early this week with low pressure to our south and convection off the North Sea might be something to watch. There's the lower possibility of snow from the south, but if anything that will mainly affect far southern and southwestern areas. Something to watch for those in this thread as well.

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Nice to see warnings of snow everywhere except for the west country on met office.

 

Surely we can strike it lucky once over the coming days?

You can bet that in the spring and summer we will have no problem with rain from the east in this region... 

[gman88667733]

14 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Excellent spot for wintery weather from the east! Where as I'm the polar opposite I'm west of really high ground. Not much from the east gets through.

Fingers crossed then!

[khodds]

So weird as it’s a stunner of a day here currently. Sat in the park and it’s so warm in the sun. Hopefully drying up nicely for the fun to begin

[khodds]

17 minutes ago, festivalking said:

2.43am

Ooh, I’ll set an alarm

[Matty-H]

22 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Nice to see warnings of snow everywhere except for the west country on met office.

 

Surely we can strike it lucky once over the coming days?

Eh? There’s a snow and ice warning out for tonight. 

[CheesepuffScott]

Good afternoon, partly cloudy skies with a light breeze. Up to 7.0°C

[Nights King]

Just now, Matty-H said:

Eh? There’s a snow and ice warning out for tonight. 

Only for north east of region abover 200 m?