South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Just now, AWD said:

Surprised our Cornish folk haven't brought up the 06z high Res Arome model;

Something for you snow starved Cornish members to grasp straws at.

Mainly because it is not likely to happen and if it does, it is likely to be cold rain!  

[AWD]

Just now, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

Mainly because it is not likely to happen and if it does, it is likely to be cold rain!  

It won't be rain (should it happen) but your other point is probable.

The model does show a streamer setting up over Southern Cornwall tomorrow.  You never know!

[Calneee]

50 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

LOL Good name for it! I can confirm nothing is happening over Winch right now. Anyone know what the triangle is about? Reminds me of a the bermuda triangle!! I'm scared!

Off topic but do you mean these? I’ve noticed them recently too, have tried Googling but can’t find anything. Anyone else know?

[birdman]

All of the ppn seemingly heading over me is simply fizzling out and producing very light snizzle. It's just too weak. Hopefully see some more organised bands overnight and into tomorrow. 

[jtay]

1 minute ago, John88B said:

The BBC app continues with the weather porn that never happens. Judging by that we'd have a good few inches here by the morning but I bet we'll have nothing. The little tease.

It's the same in the Summer, with every shower being a thunderstorm.

My advice would be to bin it. Not really sure why it's allowed on the app stores, as a weather app.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

It won't be rain (should it happen) but your other point is probable.

The model does show a streamer setting up over Southern Cornwall tomorrow.  You never know!

 As our patients down these parts certainly deserves at least one descent snow fall. If you couldn't tell, fatigue has set in for me! 

[Skullzrulerz]

7 minutes ago, AWD said:

Surprised our Cornish folk haven't brought up the 06z high Res Arome model;

Something for you snow starved Cornish members to grasp straws at.

I probably live about 20-30 miles outside of that zone lol 

Is this the channel low that's tracked south or a steamer ?

[matt111]

Tiny flakes falling again now, hardly noticeable although they have settled on certain surfaces. 

[AWD]

Not overly familiar with this guy, aside from the fact he's the local ITV weather presenter for my region (ITV's version of Ian F), but this is their version of events through this week (ITV's forecasts are provided by the Met Office);

 

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Calneee said:

Off topic but do you mean these? I’ve noticed them recently too, have tried Googling but can’t find anything. Anyone else know?

A farm.

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

 As our patients down these parts certainly deserves at least one descent snow fall. If you couldn't tell, fatigue has set in for me! 

Fair enough mate, you lot down there very rarely get lucky in winter but at least you get some of the best weather in the summer, along with some of the best beaches to enjoy it on. 

[DanDorsetUK]

10 minutes ago, AWD said:

Surprised our Cornish folk haven't brought up the 06z high Res Arome model;

Something for you snow starved Cornish members to grasp straws at.

Not surprised to see this given wind direction and strength tomorrow you could get it coming in off the sea.

[gman88667733]

12 minutes ago, AWD said:

Surprised our Cornish folk haven't brought up the 06z high Res Arome model;

Something for you snow starved Cornish members to grasp straws at.

I am in the darker green area of that too. MO app shows nothing (obviously, never seems to get snow right) but realistically, will it happen? Hmmm....

The app does seem to still think that I'll be getting snow from 6am Thursday until 6am Friday though!

Edited February 8, 2021 by gman88667733

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I probably live about 20-30 miles outside of that zone lol 

Is this the channel low that's tracked south or a steamer ?

It's a streamer that this particular model is forecasting for southern Cornwall, pretty much on/off all day tomorrow;

Very localised, but should you be lucky enough to be under it, you could get a decent covering.

[coxx657]

10 minutes ago, Calneee said:

Off topic but do you mean these? I’ve noticed them recently too, have tried Googling but can’t find anything. Anyone else know?

looks like an airfield

Edited February 8, 2021 by coxx657

[Frank Trough]

Just now, coxx657 said:

looks like am airfield

yes, that's what that "A" shape is. Runways so you can take off/land in all directions. Sometimes they're old wartime airfields rather than current ones.

[steve86]

16 minutes ago, coxx657 said:

looks like an airfield

Former RAF Blakehill. 

[SouthernSnowFan]

It was touched on yesterday, but I'm really interested to know what brought that epic dumping in January 2010 to our parts? (The dumping which was suggesting 40cm for Southampton, it was lowered to around 15-20cm though).

Thinking back that far, it feels as if this was quite an evolving situation but for the life of me, I cannot remember what the forecasts or models were showing for this. None of the historic threads in the model forum go back that far either.

I'm just clutching at straws really, what do we need for a similar event? Was it a channel low that pushed a touch further north and ran across the southern quadrant?

Edited February 8, 2021 by SouthernSnowFan

[Calneee]

Thanks all. Yes, airfield would make sense now!

[jtay]

7 minutes ago, Calneee said:

Off topic but do you mean these? I’ve noticed them recently too, have tried Googling but can’t find anything. Anyone else know?

It'll be an old RAF airfield.

Beka was talking about this triangle on the radar returns, to my East.

It's a shadow from the radar site at Dean Hill. It means we can never see what's coming from the East in these set ups. It doesn't usually matter, as what's coming is generally nothing.

[Frank Trough]

5 minutes ago, SouthernSnowFan said:

It was touched on yesterday, but I'm really interested to know what brought that epic dumping in January 2010 to our parts? (The dumping which was suggesting 40cm for Southampton, it was lowered to around 15-20cm though).

Thinking back that far, it feels as if this was quite an evolving situation but for the life of me, I cannot remember what the forecasts or models were showing for this. None of the historic threads in the model forum go back that far either.

I'm just clutching at straws really, what do we need for a similar event? Was it a channel low that pushed a touch further north and ran across the southern quadrant?

i think it was this you're thinking of?

 

I was in Locks Heath then. Brilliant event that was - had to abandon my car in Bursledon tesco and walk the rest of the way home from work. 

 

[The Enforcer]

27 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It's an almost stationary decaying upper warm front.

It doesn't seem to be decaying much, given the increase in size and intensity throughout the day so far?

[John88B]

Summer sun has just posted the meto outlook going into March and it still looks generally cold with possible snowy breakdown attempts for the region all the way through. It's worth taking a look.

[SouthernSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Frank Trough said:

i think it was this you're thinking of?

 

I was in Locks Heath then. Brilliant event that was - had to abandon my car in Bursledon tesco and walk the rest of the way home from work. 

 

That's the one, we had another event later on in January but it was that one early on which was newsworthy.

We had cars dumped absolutely everywhere, no one could move. Going by that, it looks to have been a forecast front so not an 'unexpected' event as such.

What I'd give for something similar!

[The Enforcer]

Just now, Frank Trough said:

i think it was this you're thinking of?

 

I was in Locks Heath then. Brilliant event that was - had to abandon my car in Bursledon tesco and walk the rest of the way home from work. 

 

If I recall correctly that it was a decaying cold front from the north that somehow developed a low pressure system along its line as it moved slowly south and as it hit the south coast it started circulating moisture from the Channel back northwards into the flow so it kept it going from around 4pm throughout most of the night. We were in an almost unprecedented red warning zone 24-48 hours beforehand (I thought it had to be some sort of error) and was the heaviest fall/accumulation of snow we had here this century.