South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[CentralSouthernSnow]

7 minutes ago, AWD said:

Latest high Res UKV extended at least gives most of the region some snow.  Shows and increasingly fragmented front crossing the region overnight Thursday, into Friday morning, falling as snow for most of us away from Cornwall and coastal areas of Devon/Dorset;

It would be far from historic, but it would provide some much craved snowfall for many at least.

To add, whatever snow does fall and settle would at least stay for a while and not quicky melt away, with the UKV keeping many areas north and east of Exeter cold to very cold still, these are the temperatures forecast at 15:00 on Friday afternoon;

That’s showing it settling on coasts in Dorset... 

[AWD]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

That’s showing it settling on coasts in Dorset... 

It's falling snow, not settling snow.  Posting accumulations this far out would be pointless and could help to generate false hope.

Don't take the charts to literally, just look at them as a broad brush idea of what COULD happen.

[khodds]

This forum is missing some familiar faces.. there was a regular poster from the Brixham area of Devon I think.. can’t remember his name.. sorry. And @Iceberg too! Plus someone used to do a morning post every day as well... where are you all?

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Guys do you know what they are all hyping in model thread? It’s just dry and cold. I want snow  and the event on Friday only reaches Devon before Dorset 

[Langford N.Somerset]

1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Guys do you know what they are all hyping in model thread? It’s just dry and cold. I want snow  and the event on Friday only reaches Devon before Dorset 

Cold being prolonged. We really don't want the Atlantic just coming though on Thurs/Friday. Better to keep the cold than a snow to rain event in my book.

[Snow Of '78]

2 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Guys do you know what they are all hyping in model thread?

Bone chilling cold by the looks

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Guys do you know what they are all hyping in model thread? It’s just dry and cold. I want snow  and the event on Friday only reaches Devon before Dorset 

Some people like dry and cold. 

Some like prolonged cold temperatures.

Some like recording temperatures etc.

Some like speculating in what could happen.

Everyone has a different preference or preferences when it comes to the weather.  One man's love is another man's hate.  

Cold and dry for a prolonged period of time doesn't do much for me either, but each their own etc.  The weather will do what the weather wants, regardless of what we want it to do etc.

Edited February 7, 2021 by AWD

[DanDorsetUK]

Feel like we're clutching at straws still at the moment. If the intensity can pick up to the east it seems ths steamer is shifting ever so slowly west. IOW or Dorset could get something overnight. I doubt it would be anything extensive but maybe a very light dusting. That's the area to be watching for tonight.

[wiltshire weather]

1 hour ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Do you think this will reach the Isle of Wight at all? If so when? Ta

It's possible of course and John Hammond mentions a channel streamer which could deliver. Looking at the models I think Tuesday might be the day to watch for that so keep your eye on the radar!

Edit: Keep an eye on the radar tonight as well as the band of light snow to the east of you is inching ever so slowly west....

Edited February 7, 2021 by wiltshire weather

[Don]

10 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Guys do you know what they are all hyping in model thread? It’s just dry and cold. I want snow  and the event on Friday only reaches Devon before Dorset 

The longer the cold remains in place, the more chance of snow eventually.  Frustrating yes, but at least we are not seeing a full breakdown modeled, meaning the next few days would be our only chance of seeing snow!

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, wiltshire weather said:

It's possible of course and John Hammond mentions a channel streamer which could deliver. Looking at the models I think Tuesday might be the day to watch for that so keep your eye on the radar!

Yes could happen. Even though Tuesdays low pressure has gone south I've maintained a forecast for light snow on Tuesday during the afternoon.  That could well be for a channel streamer. Back in 2018 I remember Plymouth getting buried in one and up in the moor nothing. Stranger things have happened!

[AWD]

Mixed signals for the medium term on the 12z EC Ens tonight.  These are for Bristol;

Red circle denoted a growing trend to prolong the cold surface conditions well into the weekend now.  Notice the thicker part of the pillars (the median) over Friday and Saturday now concentrated lower down the pillar, showing temps around 0c - 3c for Bristol through Friday and Saturday.  The outside solutions (thinner part of pillar) showing milder temperatures (above 4c).  This translates to roughly a 75/25 chance in favour of colder conditions remaining well into the weekend.

The downside being is the higher PPN solutions (black circle) are now shrinking, suggestive of any frontal PPN not making much progress this far NE in the region.  Worth noting that there is still a worthwhile risk here, but the thicker part of the pillars are shrinking to low PPN values, with higher PPN values becoming the outside option.  This suggests a growing number of ensemble members either see the front fragmenting rapidly over Bristol or not making it this far NE at all.

Anyway, that's the medium range summary as things stand.  On to tomorrow now, we have some flurries to chase.  @khodds wants her 7 minutes of winter action and I've promised @Nights King a lengthy 15 minute flurry tomorrow.  Hopefully, an outside chance admittedly, some areas may even be able to get a dusting if they align in streamer formation and few hit the same area.

[PleaseSnow]

Been lightly snowing here for last half hour - 45 minutes..Eastney, Portsmouth. Finally!!

[chris55]

42 minutes ago, AWD said:

As expected from Ian, for the next 24 hours or so;

 

That'll be 'long thin parallel streaks' then.....

Ian should stick with clearer/simpler language IMO, when tweeting to the masses. 

[AWD]

Just now, chris55 said:

That'll be 'long thin parallel streaks' then.....

Ian should stick with clearer/simpler language IMO, when tweeting to the masses. 

I must admit, I did have to Google what "striated" means! 

[Blizzardof82]

1 hour ago, iceman1991 said:

Can anyone remember feb 2009 well  was similar set up and we had lots of snow and I remember one day wasn’t predicted till late notice and snowed all day were they streamers atall ? 

My wedding day 6th FEB 

[khodds]

16 minutes ago, AWD said:

Mixed signals for the medium term on the 12z EC Ens tonight.  These are for Bristol;

Red circle denoted a growing trend to prolong the cold surface conditions well into the weekend now.  Notice the thicker part of the pillars (the median) over Friday and Saturday now concentrated lower down the pillar, showing temps around 0c - 3c for Bristol through Friday and Saturday.  The outside solutions (thinner part of pillar) showing milder temperatures (above 4c).  This translates to roughly a 75/25 chance in favour of colder conditions remaining well into the weekend.

The downside being is the higher PPN solutions (black circle) are now shrinking, suggestive of any frontal PPN not making much progress this far NE in the region.  Worth noting that there is still a worthwhile risk here, but the thicker part of the pillars are shrinking to low PPN values, with higher PPN values becoming the outside option.  This suggests a growing number of ensemble members either see the front fragmenting rapidly over Bristol or not making it this far NE at all.

Anyway, that's the medium range summary as things stand.  On to tomorrow now, we have some flurries to chase.  @khodds wants her 7 minutes of winter action and I've promised @Nights King a lengthy 15 minute flurry tomorrow.  Hopefully, an outside chance admittedly, some areas may even be able to get a dusting if they align in streamer formation and few hit the same area.

Nope it was the other way round. I was on for 15 mins!

[Singularity]

East Anglia radar having a helpful (!) drop-out this evening - lower resolution backup in effect.

Even so, we can make out the important realignment of the flow from NNE to NE taking place there.

The band between Reading and London has been caught up in this process. A few models actually re-invigorate it a bit as it crosses Hampshire during the next few hours, presumably by a packet of more unstable air, increased moisture, or both, being transported along it.

Even in that scenario, only looking at maybe a cm or two at most from it - but it's just the beginning for CS England.

[mozzer84]

Just wondering if the end of this week has any similarities to feb 96? Had snow off a southerly on the coast. 

 

[SouthernSnowFan]

Hi All - long time lurker around these parts - finally thought I'd post though.

It does look like we are heading for quite a prolonged cold spell, but is it just me...or does it look generally pretty dry? Maybe I'm not reading the models right?? (Certainly for my neck of the woods anyway).

It always feels as if we are in a bit of a no mans land along the Hampshire South Coast! Too far west for events such as todays, too far east for attempted breakdowns from the west, too far south to take in any real streamer fun (they seem to fizzle out around Winchester) and too far north to get into any fun and games from a channel streamer.

What do you guys feel is the best chance for the snow starved South Coast to get in on some significant action? I remember 2010 and 2009 very fondly, we were even under a red warning for a period of time - but my memory isn't great in my old age nowadays, so I can't quite remember what the setup was for that!

[khodds]

Blimey the wind is picking up 

Edited February 7, 2021 by khodds

[Chul]

3 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Right your coming too! Bring the gin and wine!

I’m in Marchwood.....can I come too please???? 

[slb97]

It’s snowing lightly here just north of Waterlooville from that tiny line of precipitation.  Nice to see a bit falling even though it’s blowing all over the place. 

[Duane S.]

North easterlies are usually a waste of time here, Too far west to pick up streamers, unless we are into March where the warmer land can aid convection. Even then, very rare to get much more than leftovers and a smattering, even off a fairly active front.

I’m waiting for the wind to start swinging more easterly, then south easterly later Monday into Tuesday, this should drag a bit of wintery convection into town. Hopefully

[Climate_Eyes]

11 minutes ago, slb97 said:

It’s snowing lightly here just north of Waterlooville from that tiny line of precipitation.  Nice to see a bit falling even though it’s blowing all over the place.

 

Just had a 5 minute shower of graupel here just up the road near Petersfield. It's absolutely raw in that wind!