Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


AWD

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

And I won the the Lottery....

Apologies it's a bad day...time to log off and hit the sack methinks..

That sounds really painful!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
54 minutes ago, Matty-H said:

I hope you get buried where you are. For obvious reasons

I'm glad you added that!! I thought bloody 'ell that's a bit harsh lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
33 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Horrible just saw them bring the body out ❤️

Ruddy ell it's all going on where you live! RIP poor boy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
1 minute ago, JimBob said:

The latest text update mentions rain moving in on Thursday and the TV weather showed 5 degrees for the region.  To be fair if all were going to get us freezing cold dry weather, the sooner it warms up the better! 

Meto/ITV weather cover the whole SW generally.  What looks like happening from Thursday is a split through the SW with Cornwall and Devon becoming less cold/milder and areas further inland north/east remaining colder.  Where that line is will chop and change repeatedly between now and then.

Going by the longer range Meto forecast as well as musings from my local weather forecaster, more episodes of colder than average weather look probable through February, so whether we like it or not, it's quite possible we may have to get used to some cold days ahead, with an early Spring not really looking probable (aside from a day or two here and there).

Hopefully we can strike lucky and get some decent snowfall across parts of the SW.  Admittedly, that's looking like a hard task this coming week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
8 minutes ago, fromey said:

Interesting  

46F77FB4-9794-4A27-B4CB-7CBD2476CCD1.jpeg

 

13 minutes ago, AWD said:

This is the temperature forecast map for SW England, on Thursday afternoon, on the Meto website, updated around 2 hours ago;

Screenshot_2021-02-07-17-09-42-59.thumb.jpg.5fce0c5197aed84f33e34f5db2049d7c.jpg

Seems to follow most modelling in that milder air only really gets into Cornwall and costal parts of Devon.

Inland northern and eastern parts of the region remaining on the cold side.

Ultimately all comes down to where the frontal system sits.  This will chop and change regularly between now and then.

Why are metoffive so keen on it being sleet and rain? And a breakdown? Or does it only make it into southwest England. I thought it was snow 

Edited by CentralSouthernSnow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

 

Why are metoffive so keen on it being sleet and rain? And a breakdown? Or does it only make it into southwest England. I thought it was snow 

What's snow?  When are we on about?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
26 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Warning! Fantasy land! 19th February! Us southerners can dream! I have a feeling we will see more charts like this 

9DF496C7-5292-4026-A265-25C307182D69.png

Go wash your mouth out with soap! You know it won't happen! We've seen narnia on the charts since boxing day!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
10 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm afraid I'm with you. Wanna join our pity party in Totton?

As an ex-watersider, I've been to a few of those in Totton.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Streamers are getting going now off the North Sea by the looks of it

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

image.thumb.png.4f5b91bca76d4779f88c3bf45261885e.pngimage.thumb.png.aa7c4068c94064147c01a2ad390f4904.pngimage.thumb.png.5d2d9100715ec64a0820d7122691c87a.pngimage.thumb.png.f4900fadc11be1b486dc1bea20beba11.png 

ICON kind of fascinates me - a strange halfway house between a high-res model and a global model. It seems to struggle to capture the organisation of showers into cells but does better than ECM and to a small extent GFS at picking out general areas of 'showery tendency'.

It's one of the models suggesting that a band from the east produces a dusting this evening for parts of west Hants / Dorset.

Then it has general showery conditions reaching the east of the region tomorrow daytime.

Tuesday, Thames streamer of sorts makes an appearance for a few hours, aligned east-northeast to west-southwest.

Thursday has an interesting northward lift of a band from the Channel ahead of the Atlantic incursion attempt which makes it across the whole region before stalling and fizzling out. Falls a snow for all but the southern reaches of western Cornwall.


None of the charts should be taken at face value, rather as loose guidance as to what's possible these coming days.

The way it looks, I'd be disappointed if some lying snow wasn't able to be found quite widely by late Thursday - even if it's mainly in shallow drifts!

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
1 minute ago, khodds said:

Streamers are getting going now off the North Sea by the looks of it

Get ready for your 7 minutes of winter fun soon. 

Edited by AWD
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
1 minute ago, AWD said:

Get ready for your 7 minutes of winter fun soon. 

Wahooooo

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
2 minutes ago, jtay said:

As an ex-watersider, I've been to a few of those in Totton.

Right your coming too! Bring the gin and wine!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
4 minutes ago, AWD said:

Get ready for your 7 minutes of winter fun soon. 

And don't forget to use protection! ... It's positively Ball-tic out there!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey and mild!
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
16 minutes ago, khodds said:

Streamers are getting going now off the North Sea by the looks of it

Hopefully this lump is heading my way unless it fizzles out! Will probably divert south lol

Screenshot_20210207_174055.jpg

Edited by birdman
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
16 minutes ago, AWD said:

Meto/ITV weather cover the whole SW generally.  What looks like happening from Thursday is a split through the SW with Cornwall and Devon becoming less cold/milder and areas further inland north/east remaining colder.  Where that line is will chop and change repeatedly between now and then.

Going by the longer range Meto forecast as well as musings from my local weather forecaster, more episodes of colder than average weather look probable through February, so whether we like it or not, it's quite possible we may have to get used to some cold days ahead, with an early Spring not really looking probable (aside from a day or two here and there).

Hopefully we can strike lucky and get some decent snowfall across parts of the SW.  Admittedly, that's looking like a hard task this coming week.

Yes these forecasts do cover a wide region, seems quite progressive though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
22 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

 

Why are metoffive so keen on it being sleet and rain? And a breakdown? Or does it only make it into southwest England. I thought it was snow 

The METO absolutely love forecasting “rain on coasts”.  They’re usually right  

i bet it drizzled in east Bournemouth in the last mini ice age.

I’m so desperate now that I’m just giving myself a pep talk about “at least it will be dry”. River levels drop and I might finally get fishing next week

Edited by Frank Trough
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
6 minutes ago, birdman said:

Hopefully this lump is heading my way unless it fizzles out! Will probably divert south lol

Screenshot_20210207_174055.jpg

Let us know what happens ??

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

image.thumb.png.fe0e1267bf11bd7be6633d9bc59f5da5.pngimage.thumb.png.926181157ecf0541a6bb63a6acb2835d.png 

Left-hand chart shows a streamer propagating west tonight, which is a feature on all the high-res models to some degree or other. Fizzles out over Dorset.

The other chart shows streamers reaching beyond Dorset for a time. It will be interesting to see whether they reach any further than that - the underestimation that's so often quoted on the forum. I've seen it plenty of times in the past but I expect it depends on the precise setup just how much it comes into play.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey and mild!
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, khodds said:

Let us know what happens ??

Will do. Temp down to 1 now feeling much colder than earlier this afternoon. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Just now, birdman said:

Will do. Temp down to 1 now feeling much colder than earlier this afternoon. 

I was thinking that here. I no longer have a weather station tho so not sure what the actual temp is

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
13 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

The METO absolutely love forecasting “rain on coasts”.  They’re usually right  

i bet it drizzled in east Bournemouth in the last mini ice age.

I’m so desperate now that I’m just giving myself a pep talk about “at least it will be dry”. River levels drop and I might finally get fishing next week

To be fair that isn’t true! Bournemouth has seen plenty of snow events with it settling on beaches. It just depends if the off shore breeze turns it to rain! It’s right timing with the winds! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Just nipped out for a smoke and that wind is raw...0.8°C

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
17 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

The METO absolutely love forecasting “rain on coasts”.  They’re usually right  

i bet it drizzled in east Bournemouth in the last mini ice age.

I’m so desperate now that I’m just giving myself a pep talk about “at least it will be dry”. River levels drop and I might finally get fishing next week

I live not far from lulworth in countryside and it always looks beautiful when it snows. Can’t wait 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

image.thumb.png.169a7003b4bc7fcf83861071a951c6f7.png

This looks to be the steamer that the models have getting caught up in the more easterly flow.

The others remain embedded in the flow around the low to the southeast, so they stay more or less in place.

In the past hour, this looks to be starting to unfold, with the western line starting to socially distance from the others.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...