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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


AWD

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

That's one heck of alot of precip pushing in from the east very quickly. Be interesting now how far west it gets on radar. 

exactly what i was thinking and with the temps dropping now!

Edited by alex12
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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

It’s all rain though currently isn’t it?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

12z EC Det shows what could happen should all the stars align correctly for parts of the West Country.

Screenshot_2021-02-06-18-48-36-48.thumb.jpg.f693850f403a655971e1e3dc9cd0521c.jpg

Not to be taken literally of course, these charts are crap for detail.  Just to give a broad brush idea of what COULD happen for some of us towards the end of the week.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I wouldn't worry about the temperatures dropping now, as they'll rise again as the front slips South.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

You can tell where the cloud cover is in the east! We are seemingly 4 degrees colder here under clear skies 

C8DEA0CC-F164-45C7-B272-348CE87B9651.png

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos

Looking at the models and the thoughts of the pros we'd be very unlucky not to get stuck under stalling fronts at some point, producing decent snowfall for many. The potential is definitely there for a few decent dumpings for the region followed by a continuation of the cold.

Edited by John88B
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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Just now, John88B said:

Looking at the models and the thoughts of the pros we'd be very unlucky not to get stuck under stalling fronts at some point, producing decent snowfall for many. The potential is definitely there for a few decent dumpings for the region.

Defo! I think everyone will hit the jackpot judging by the latest output.. Fergie hinting at this going on into March possibly 

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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't worry about the temperatures dropping now, as they'll rise again as the front slips South.

But colder air is cutting in from Northwest not east I thought 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z EC Det shows what could happen should all the stars align correctly for parts of the West Country.

Screenshot_2021-02-06-18-48-36-48.thumb.jpg.f693850f403a655971e1e3dc9cd0521c.jpg

Not to be taken literally of course, these charts are crap for detail.  Just to give a broad brush idea of what COULD happen for some of us towards the end of the week.

I'm sort of in 'no mans' land there, with plenty of snow to the west and east!  However, like you say, detail will change.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

But colder air is cutting in from Northwest not east I thought 

It will do, yes.

I meant that the 2m temperatures now will have no bearing on what falls from the sky during the early hours.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Actually quite taken aback by the westward momentum coming in now. If only we could of got the cold air in sooner for early hours as going by that I think there is more precip than I gave it credit for.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
3 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm sort of in 'no mans' land there, with plenty of snow to the west and east!  However, like you say, detail will change.

I wouldn't take it literally.  I'm not a fan of the above type charts, I posted more to demonstrate what "potentially could" happen if luck was on our side, for some of us.  

Things will change between now and then, for sure though.

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
11 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z EC Det shows what could happen should all the stars align correctly for parts of the West Country.

Indeed, plenty of eye candy at the end of week for our region from ECM.

Normally I’d say oh it’s such a long way off, which it is, but there is support from other models for this outcome. So maybe our turn end of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
18 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z EC Det shows what could happen should all the stars align correctly for parts of the West Country.

Screenshot_2021-02-06-18-48-36-48.thumb.jpg.f693850f403a655971e1e3dc9cd0521c.jpg

Not to be taken literally of course, these charts are crap for detail.  Just to give a broad brush idea of what COULD happen for some of us towards the end of the week.

What a shame for Cornwall it feels like we need a 2010 just to get a dusting

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
2 hours ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

There was a time during winter when they used to have a separate Central Southern England thread around the time I joined this forum. Mapantz would be able to confirm when it was I suspect.

Yes there was! I was in it!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
28 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z EC Det shows what could happen should all the stars align correctly for parts of the West Country.

Screenshot_2021-02-06-18-48-36-48.thumb.jpg.f693850f403a655971e1e3dc9cd0521c.jpg

Not to be taken literally of course, these charts are crap for detail.  Just to give a broad brush idea of what COULD happen for some of us towards the end of the week.

Don't worry mate, just think, Cornwall gets some of the best weather during the summer months.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Temp bottomed out here and is back on the rise. Associated with the cloud to the East I expect?!

5°C and rain circa midnight.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Temp bottomed out here and is back on the rise. Associated with the cloud to the East I expect?!

5°C and rain circa midnight.

YEP, stable @  2.7°C and there it goes, back up to 2.8°C...

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

BIG shift to colder weather dominating at the surface from the latest 12z Meteograms.  Look at how Friday and into the weekend have trended well down, a degree or two above freezing as a median for Bristol well into the weekend;

IMG_20210206_193233.thumb.jpg.7f07a033a4040bd80d983954df206f96.jpg

Compared to the ones from the same time last night;

IMG_20210206_193302.thumb.jpg.7b792c2c8ad831330c25c526843647a9.jpg

Clear shift to colder surface conditions remaining.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
35 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Tuesday's front is now in France.

This is the last frame of the UKV:

1962961224_viewimage(3).thumb.png.7dd4b062bdd933eaeef43d6dafbf5c13.png

You’ll be sure to let us know when there’s some good news, won’t you?

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