South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[offerman]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

Being in ramp mode, that 3.5c temperature you currently have is the highest temperature you will have for the next 10 days if the 12z GFS were to be correct.

Anyway, back down to reality.  Soon be time to switch to radar watching and try to find some elusive snow that hasn't been forecast for us.

Wow ! Thanks I didn’t know that , for 10 days would be perfect! Hopefully some ice days in these 10 days by the sounds of it . 

[offerman]

6 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

A nice day. Peaked at 7.1°C, and it hasn’t felt too bad in the sunshine. Temp dropping away now, 4.3°C

That’s an astonishing photo. Extremely well captured , love it. Thanks for sharing .

[Nights King]

7 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Already a couple of degrees colder than METO forecast here, could tonight be an all snow event????

It can only be a good thing but i expect temperature to rise as cloud cover increases later?

[Blizzardof82]

Just now, Nights King said:

It can only be a good thing but i expect temperature to rise as cloud cover increases later?

Good point but I live in hope.

[Malcolm Edwards]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

A bit of a shame that the South West does go into the warmer air 

I have checked via the met office and it seems that Cornwall only has 2 days of very cold temperatures 

However this is from where I live but it looks awesome especially Eastern England

Get excited guys it's coming 

I think Cornwall should do OK this coming week. Very 2018 feel atm. Maybe we could be treated to a 87 style event. 

[snowlight robbery]

11 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

Quickest summary I can do to help you and anyone else out. 

 

• Easterly Continues to later this week.
• Atlantic Low blows in from the west, however retains enough cold air to fall as snow across the west, midlands, south west and possibly push eastwards.
• The cold bed over the UK then breaks up the Atlantic low, with a Scandi high return us to frigid cold weather afterwards.

 

Literally coldie fanfic charts. 

Many thanks for that! .. that'll do for me! .. Fascinating regularly checking into the model output! .. I'm getting there deciphering my ECM's amongst  GEFS's and my FL, undercuts and of course the good ole Scandi high! A code of your own but love it!

[Choggy]

59 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Tell me about it. Least we have scored today!

A Newcastle win and cold incoming ....couldn't be anymore perfect ️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️

[AWD]

Just seen this from Ian, posted an hour ago;

Surely we have to get lucky at some time.  Kids are desperate for some snow before winter is out.

[matt111]

Felt fairly warm in the sun earlier but the breeze was increasingly cold as the afternoon went on. Reached 8.3°C, who knows when it'll reach that again. Currently 5.4°C

[DanDorsetUK]

The way I'm seeing things now this week. Chances of rain turning to sleet and possible light snow tomorrow morning in the east of the region.

Low pressure currently to far South for anything substantial Tuesday into Wednesday as it stands. Maybe a chance of light grains but with a bit of luck could shift north by 50 miles which could help.

We are then reliant on showers coming from the east so I expect we will see something falling but nothing to noteworthy unless we can benifit from a long fetch steamer.

There is the possibility of an attempted breakdown with snow turning to rain towards the end of the week. "Maybe".

So radar watch here on in. Conditions will be conductive for snow for a while we just need a bit of luck on our side. Good luck to everyone! 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Rapodo

[jtay]

11 minutes ago, Choggy said:

A Newcastle win and cold incoming ....couldn't be anymore perfect ️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️

Can we stay on topic please.

[Dorsetbred]

Interesting temperature graph, currently the temperature (under clear skies skies) is falling at 2.7°C / hour, with the cooler air now well in place from the NE direction..currently 3.7°C  after a high of  9.7°C 

[DanDorsetUK]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Interesting temperature graph, currently the temperature (under clear skies skies) is falling at 2.7°C / hour, with the cooler air now well in place from the NE direction..currently 3.7°C  after a high of  9.7°C 

Where are you getting those figures from? Do you have a temp gauge in the garden? Still got 6oC where i am but does feel colder now I must say.

[Dorsetbred]

7 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Where are you getting those figures from? Do you have a temp gauge in the garden? Still got 6oC where i am but does feel colder now I must say.

Yup got three different systems.

My main one is a Davis Vantage PRO2+ and as my signature suggests is located @

PooleWeather.UK

POOLEWEATHER.UK

I live on heathland so the temperature can be different to soil laden areas, and we do get the heat and cold differences to local spots.

[jethro]

6 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Yup got three different systems.

My main one is a Davis Vantage PRO2+ and as my signature suggests is located @

PooleWeather.UK

POOLEWEATHER.UK

I live on heathland so the temperature can be different to soil laden areas, and we do get the heat and cold differences to local spots.

When I saw Poole and heathland I had to check....you live just round the corner from my in laws, they're on Westham Close. Small world.

[snowysouth]

50 minutes ago, Nights King said:

It can only be a good thing but i expect temperature to rise as cloud cover increases later?

MO know something we don't

[Dorsetbred]

23 minutes ago, jethro said:

When I saw Poole and heathland I had to check....you live just round the corner from my in laws, they're on Westham Close. Small world.

Yup, not far away so they will see similar conditions there...

Edited February 6, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Blizzard]

1 hour ago, offerman said:

Blimey it’s cold out there , i’m wondering when precipitation reaches us this evening and overnight if it will actually start off as snow rather than transitional from rain to snow .

 

Its  currently  snowing over Frome , albeit high up in the clouds not making it down to ground level .

it’s really cold out there at the moment about 3.5c. 

 

 

Saw similar just now on way back from shops.  Definite snow coming out of the clouds.... but nowhere near the ground....

 

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Depends on your location.

Think we need a Central Southern England thread on its own

This would be great for many of us further east.

Still could go more west nearer the time so still one to watch.

We did have one on here, which was seasonal, but as the interest waxes & wanes, particularly in the quiet months, it was merged back in to the current thread..

Edited February 6, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[AWD]

Netweathers very own medium range model providing a favourable outcome for inland northern and eastern parts of the West Country towards the end of the working week;

Not so good for Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and South Somerset with a snow to rain event modelled for these locations.  North Somerset, Bristol, Glos, Wiltshire, Hampshire seeing an all snow event (quite a significant one too) throughout.  Once it is all over, the model keeps the cold air in place at the surface for these locations right into the weekend too, so any lying snow will last a bit.

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

The models have shunted Tuesday's low back southwards again this afternoon, so less chances of anything significant from that, though maybe some snow showers clipping the English Channel coast as the wind briefly turns more south-easterly.  It's still not too late for northward corrections at three days out, but for now the odds are looking against again.  But as AWD mentions there is an increasing chance that Thursday/Friday will have snow for at least some, with the fronts getting in but not pushing the cold air away quickly, and possibly not pushing it away at all for the N and E of the region.

From a local perspective at least the Netweather model outcome would give Exeter some of the white stuff rather than an all rain event or just sleet on the leading edge, though it would only stick around for long in the north and east of the region.

[Ciderman]

Stupid bloody snow, why do you hate us so much!

[noggin]

Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

Already a couple of degrees colder than METO forecast here, could tonight be an all snow event????

That would be good as we have several hours of heavy rain to come, apparently. If it did fall as snow, it would be magical!

[Blizzardof82]

3 minutes ago, noggin said:

That would be good as we have several hours of heavy rain to come, apparently. If it did fall as snow, it would be magical!

Currently 1.2c dew point 0.7c so fingers crossed 

[DanDorsetUK]

That's one heck of alot of precip pushing in from the east very quickly. Be interesting now how far west it gets on radar.