South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, jtay said:

Sat out in the Sun with a pint and it's absolutely glorious.

If Saints weren't losing, it'd be perfect.

 

 

Tell me about it. Least we have scored today!

[jtay]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Tell me about it. Least we have scored today!

Listening to it on 5live. Free kick sounded like a cracker.

[Snowy Bob]

1 minute ago, jtay said:

Listening to it on 5live. Free kick sounded like a cracker.

That's what happens when you get some quality invention in! Annoyed that Taki didn't get more time for the Redmen.

[sukayuonsensnow]

End of week may be of interest for battleground scenarios (always potential the easterly may prevail and push this more west). This via GFS 12.

Central Southern England could do well here, but I suspect similar to a snow event in January 2013 higher ground in C/E Wales would benefit the most in this setup, perhaps N Ireland too.

This will need watching in the coming days.

[AWD]

Don't take this chart too literally, as the boundary will obviously change being a week away still, but look at this 2m temp differential next Friday on the 12z GFS;

These are MAX forecast temps for early afternoon next Friday.  Cornwall & Devon will be in shorts & T shirts, having Baba's, Somerset northwards and eastwards still frozen with Glos/Wilts etc below freezing.

Looks like a week of very cold weather for more northern and eastern districts of the region, less so for southern and western members. Just got to hope we can find some snow from somewhere once the time comes to radar watch.

[Frosty_wsm]

1 minute ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

End of week may be of interest for battleground scenarios (always potential the easterly may prevail and push this more west). This via GFS 12.

Central Southern England could do well here, but I suspect similar to a snow event in January 2013 higher ground in C/E Wales would benefit the most in this setup, perhaps N Ireland too.

This will need watching in the coming days.

Hopefully that weather front makes less inroads than this shows otherwise it's a bust imby.

[khodds]

16 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

Was that overnight November 30th/December 1st 2010? A little area of instability and it delivered a nice covering ( I was in locks Heath then). It was modelled in advance though.

Could have been it, I remember watching it before bed and thinking it would never make it as far over as it did, was quite active and a lovely surprise 

[sukayuonsensnow]

4 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Hopefully that weather front makes less inroads than this shows otherwise it's a bust imby.

Depends on your location.

Think we need a Central Southern England thread on its own

This would be great for many of us further east.

Still could go more west nearer the time so still one to watch.

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Depends on your location.

Think we need a Central Southern England thread on its own

This would be great for many of us further east.

Still could go more west nearer the time so still one to watch.

Do agree with you there.

This thread covers from Lands end to Basingstoke, from Tewkesbury to Swanage.  That's quite a large area where the weather on the ground will be different from one place to the next and where people are going to want differing outcomes from model output (ie if your in Cornwall or Swindon etc)

Edited February 6, 2021 by AWD

[khodds]

Definitely getting colder out there now. Dew points must be lowering 

[sukayuonsensnow]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

Do agree with you there.

This thread covers from Lands end to Basingstoke, from Tewkesbury to Swanage.  That's quite a large area where the weather on the ground will be different from one place to the next and where people are going to want differing outcomes from model output (ie if your in Cornwall or Swindon etc)

Being located in NE Hampshire I could really be in either this thread or the South East one. I suspect similar in other western Home Counties to the west of London.

A bust snow situation for some on here could be the jackpot for others. This week we will probably see this situation on a few occasions. 

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

10 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Depends on your location.

Think we need a Central Southern England thread on its own

This would be great for many of us further east.

Still could go more west nearer the time so still one to watch.

There was a time during winter when they used to have a separate Central Southern England thread around the time I joined this forum. Mapantz would be able to confirm when it was I suspect.

[AWD]

Just now, sukayuonsensnow said:

Being located in NE Hampshire I could really be in either this thread or the South East one. I suspect similar in other western Home Counties to the west of London.

A bust snow situation for some on here could be the jackpot for others. This week we will probably see this situation on a few occasions. 

Yes, that dividing line (wherever it may be) between cold continental air and milder Atlantic air will be a dividing line between members in this thread.  Some will like the current medium range output and some won't, being how finely balanced it all is.

Anyway, all a long way off still and subject to a lot of change now doubt (for worse or for better).

[jtay]

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

Do agree with you there.

This thread covers from Lands end to Basingstoke, from Tewkesbury to Swanage.  That's quite a large area where the weather on the ground will be different from one place to the next and where people are going to want differing outcomes from model output (ie if your in Cornwall or Swindon etc)

But then you'd miss beka sliding down her drive on a sledge.

[Blizzardof82]

9 minutes ago, khodds said:

Definitely getting colder out there now. Dew points must be lowering 

3.4c and Dewpoint 1.9c here, dropping like a stone 

[wiltshire weather]

Just to throw this in to show the possibilities, on the GEM 12Z the front on Friday barely makes it to my house before stalling!

And so far the models are all showing some sort of a return to even colder weather the following week via a huge Scandi high.

Lots to be resolved and things to fall into place but certainly a fascinating period of weather watching atm. 

[snowlight robbery]

Haven't got a clue what they're all talking about, but still fascinating reading the sheer excitement from the amateur forecasters on the model output thread! By the sounds of it the latest charts are throwing up some seriously cold and prolonged wintry weather across all parts towards the end of next week! .. manic in there! .. worth a visit! 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

6 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Just to throw this in to show the possibilities, on the GEM 12Z the front on Friday barely makes it to my house before stalling!

And so far the models are all showing some sort of a return to even colder weather the following week via a huge Scandi high.

Lots to be resolved and things to fall into place but certainly a fascinating period of weather watching atm. 

Gem stalls the low over the uk? 

[Singularity]

Who's up for some ice pellets?

I suppose this makes sense as such cold, relatively dry air mixes in - unlikely to be uniformly cold enough for snow down to the surface but heavy enough precipitation could still be frozen as it hits the ground.

Imagine living in the east of the region, just outside where most of the models have the snow boundary tomorrow. So near, yet so far during these travel-restricted times!

[Frosty the Snowman]

1 minute ago, snowlight robbery said:

Haven't got a clue what they're all talking about, but still fascinating reading the sheer excitement from the amateur forecasters on the model output thread! By the sounds of it the latest charts are throwing up some seriously cold and prolonged wintry weather across all parts towards the end of next week! .. manic in there! .. worth a visit! 

 

Quickest summary I can do to help you and anyone else out. 

 

• Easterly Continues to later this week.
• Atlantic Low blows in from the west, however retains enough cold air to fall as snow across the west, midlands, south west and possibly push eastwards.
• The cold bed over the UK then breaks up the Atlantic low, with a Scandi high return us to frigid cold weather afterwards.

 

Literally coldie fanfic charts. 

[offerman]

Blimey it’s cold out there , i’m wondering when precipitation reaches us this evening and overnight if it will actually start off as snow rather than transitional from rain to snow .

 

Its  currently  snowing over Frome , albeit high up in the clouds not making it down to ground level .

it’s really cold out there at the moment about 3.5c. 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by offerman

[AWD]

1 minute ago, offerman said:

Blimey it’s cold out there , i’m wondering when precipitation reaches us this evening and overnight if it will actually start off as snow rather than transitional from rain to snow .

 

Its  currently  snowing over Frome , albeit high up in the clouds not making it down to ground level .

it’s really cold out there at the moment about 3.5c. 

 

 

Being in ramp mode, that 3.5c temperature you currently have is the highest temperature you will have for the next 10 days if the 12z GFS were to be correct.

Anyway, back down to reality.  Soon be time to switch to radar watching and try to find some elusive snow that hasn't been forecast for us.

[CheesepuffScott]

A nice day. Peaked at 7.1°C, and it hasn’t felt too bad in the sunshine. Temp dropping away now, 4.3°C

[Blizzardof82]

Already a couple of degrees colder than METO forecast here, could tonight be an all snow event????

[wiltshire weather]

3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Gem stalls the low over the uk? 

The low pressure system gets held out to the west and the associated precipitation gets as far as the chart I posted before fizzling out.