South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[alex12]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Only for north east of region abover 200 m?

BBC weather has one out if this is what you are referring too?

[Matty-H]

4 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Only for north east of region abover 200 m?

But that’s not what you said is it?

 

you said no warnings. 
 

Probably won’t be much if any at low levels, but some will see snow falling and settling. 

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, alex12 said:

BBC weather has one out if this is what you are referring too?

If they use the met office one then yes it only includes north east fringe of west country and wording says this -

"Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, the latter mainly over hills, moving westwards across the area during Saturday night. This will lead to 1-4 cm of snow accumulating in places, mainly above 200-300 metres."

 

That is a non event for the west country in my eyes.

[DanDorsetUK]

Can't believe how mild and spring like it is down here. Hard to imagine how much it will change from tomorrow. 

[khodds]

1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

Can't believe how mild and spring like it is down here. Hard to imagine how much it will change from tomorrow. 

Yep I feel the same. Feels like I’m sunbathing currently

[CentralSouthernSnow]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

If they use the met office one then yes it only includes north east fringe of west country and wording says this -

"Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, the latter mainly over hills, moving westwards across the area during Saturday night. This will lead to 1-4 cm of snow accumulating in places, mainly above 200-300 metres."

 

That is a non event for the west country in my eyes.

Met office have changed there 6-30 day outlook about 50 times in the last week. I wouldn’t even go by it, last week it was high pressure building to north of country and battle ground events. Hardly looking that way is it?  Are you talking about the channel low or tommrow? Because channel lows are unpredictable 

[Nights King]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Met office have changed there 6-30 day outlook about 50 times in the last week. I wouldn’t even go by it, last week it was high pressure building to north of country and battle ground events. Hardly looking that way is it?  Are you talking about the channel low or tommrow? Because channel lows are unpredictable 

Yes the warning im talking about is tonights and sundays so we less than 24 hours away which i would expect them to have a better handle of than the 6 - 30 day forecast but who knows it could change for better.

Chanel low is a chance but I think it will clip southern most areas. dorset may have a chance, we need to see upgrades.

[Matty-H]

Ian Fergusson’s thoughts

 

W COUNTRY TONIGHT-SUN AM: Yellow warning from @metoffice for snow & ice, valid 9pm Sat to 10am Sun. Models vary re potential snow extent/coverage later tonight for our region, albeit agree on the muted amounts (perhaps ~1-3cm parts of uplands Glos, Wilts, NE Som). Ice wider issue

[Mapantz]

Sunny and 9.1°C

If it wasn't bad enough for much of the region, the UKV has been getting worse.

  

[sukayuonsensnow]

42 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Central Southern England is probably one of the most difficult regions to forecast right in these setups. I do think we will see some snow, maybe 2-3in by Monday is my personal guess. That said go a little more towards Basingstoke/Newbury and they may see very little snow until later in the week.

Much of the heavier snow is to the east of us - but it wouldn't take much for the winds out of Storm Darcy to throw in a Thames streamer for us. Of course forecasting streamers is never easy, and some of us may get 4in+ of snow while 10 minutes down the road gets barely a dusting. We are east enough to be at risk of snow flurries or streamers from the east, but west enough to increase that uncertainty. We are also east and north enough in the event of a battleground situation to take notice. There are no substantial hills over to our east to block off precipitation there (that would get in the way), so geography is also on our side - but it comes down to locality.

Pay-off events can still happen though. We'll have to stay tuned to the forecast and keep an eye on the radar.

Adding to this post.

If winds come from the NE and bring in a Thames streamer, the main risk areas would be E Hampshire, Surrey, potentially northern W/E Sussex, and potentially Berkshire. More southern areas would be trickier again due to geography, as you have the Surrey Hills/North Downs/Kent Downs to consider. Areas adjacent to the A272 between Winchester and E Sussex would be very hit and miss because of the hills to the north/north east.

If winds come from the ENE and bring in a Thames streamer, then areas along the M3 from London to maybe as far as Salisbury Plain or more realistically Basingstoke would be most at risk, perhaps extending to the M4 corridor or nearer to the A31/A3 around Hog's Back.

If winds come directly from the E and bring in a Thames streamer, areas along the M4 would be more at risk, perhaps extending as far north as the Chilterns, and as far south as areas adjacent to the M3/maybe A303.

The issue with streamers for our region is wind direction (as we are more west), and geography with where hills are located. As such it is very difficult to forecast and even if you are in the right place for wind direction to bring those snow showers in, all it takes is a hill in between you and the snow for things to become a non-event. That said said hilly areas would get some of the deeper snow amounts.

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Matty-H said:

Ian Fergusson’s thoughts

 

W COUNTRY TONIGHT-SUN AM: Yellow warning from @metoffice for snow & ice, valid 9pm Sat to 10am Sun. Models vary re potential snow extent/coverage later tonight for our region, albeit agree on the muted amounts (perhaps ~1-3cm parts of uplands Glos, Wilts, NE Som). Ice wider issue

Lets hope this isnt the defining event for the great cold spell of winter 2021 

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Sunny and 9.1°C

If it wasn't bad enough for much of the region, the UKV has been getting worse.

  

Have to agree with Mapantz on this one it looks poor! 

 

[khodds]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Have to agree with Mapantz on this one it looks poor! 

 

Come on man!! It’s not even started yet!! Who knows what will happen? That’s what’s good about these things 

[Nights King]

Just now, khodds said:

Come on man!! It’s not even started yet!! Who knows what will happen? That’s what’s good about these things 

I hope your right, roll on the 12z maybe that will snap me out of it 

[khodds]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

I hope your right, roll on the 12z maybe that will snap me out of it 

Go to the pub... oh wait

[Matty-H]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I hope your right, roll on the 12z maybe that will snap me out of it  

Edited February 6, 2021 by Matty-H
Wrong quote

[dec10snow]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I hope your right, roll on the 12z maybe that will snap me out of it 

Can’t you just go Skiing NK? You’re usually selflessly sorting out snow for the rest of us!

We’d send you pictures 

[Matty-H]

11 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Lets hope this isnt the defining event for the great cold spell of winter 2021 

Amen to that lol 

[AWD]

I'm as pessimistic as the next person with regards to snowfall for my area.  I've always said (and remain of the opinion) that bar some light snow flurries, I can't see anything substantial for the first few days of this colder spell of weather with regards to snowfall for the Bristol area.

However, I do fully appreciate that modelling is just a "best estimate" prediction and that the weather will often bring surprises and go against the forecast, so I will still be radar watching over the next few days, regardless.

Also, one positive for cold weather fans is that the colder airmass looks like hanging on for most of the working week ahead now (more so inland areas), and as I demonstrated in an earlier post, there remains much more uncertainty and potential for significant snowfall across my area on Thursday and possibly Friday.  Obviously a long way off, just a twinkle in one's eye at the moment, but as long as it remains cold enough, the chance is at least always there.

Edited February 6, 2021 by AWD

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, dec10snow said:

Can’t you just go Skiing NK? You’re usually selflessly sorting out snow for the rest of us!

We’d send you pictures 

Oh I wish I could! Maybe next year that can happen. 

[SilverWolf]

I think reading between the lines, look at the radar 3 times a day, and if there is precip near where you live showing, run the animation back an hour to try see where it will head next. None of the snow/rain/sleet, or whatever event has happened for you, has followed the model predictions even 12 hours out, since Christmas. 

We’re on the cusp of a decent cold spell that will last at least 5 days, and may well return after a few mild days - for the sake of our own sanity the actual rainfall radar is the best bet - if it’s coming, it’s coming, if it’s not it’s not! 

Disclaimer - no doubt I’ll ignore my own advice and check the MOD thread as often as the radar. Crazy hobby eh? 

Edited February 6, 2021 by SilverWolf

[MidnightSnow]

Tonight / Sunday never really looked that good for our area. If we get anything at all it will be a bonus in my eyes. The interest for me was always going to be next week. Tuesday is still far enough away to see more northern adjustments (some models already have most of our region seeing heavy snow). Then there's more possibilites of snow Thursday / Friday.

I get that I'm probably more optimistic than most... but I also think there's a fine line between being a realist and just bringing the thread down for the sake of it. Misery loves company.

Think back to every good snow event you ever had. Was it ever straight forward? Was snow ever nailed on so early in advance? It's always gonna go down to the wire for us, that's just the way it is.

[Singularity]

An area to watch this evening - this is the feature that the high-res models disagree on the behaviour of during pre-dawn tomorrow.

Some take it due west, either merging with the front or following on right behind it. Settling snow chance for the north of our region, especially on high ground as per the Met Office warning.

Others move it more slowly and get it caught up in the circulation of the low to the southeast, such that it arcs southwest then south. Settling snow chance for west Hants, south Wilts and Dorset. Probably not much on offer though - a cm or two at most.

 

Sunday daytime really isn't showing much on any of the models now for our region. The arcing flow around the low whisks the moisture away roughly in a line Southampton northward. This being why the usual shower coverage underestimation may not count for much on this occasion.

Overnight into Monday, things change, as the flow turns more easterly. Many high-res models suggest at least some showers making their way as far west as Dorset, maybe a little beyond. Some develop streamers along the Thames which can produce snowfall as far south as the Wiltshire/Dorset border, as I can recall experiencing in Feb 2008.

I agree with those who see a good chance of a more organised disturbance coming together at some point Mon-Tue, moving generally westward across the region.

Wouldn't be surprising to see some snow (or mainly snow) showers off the Channel affecting parts of Cornwall and Devon. Maybe even a streamer such as the ECM 00z went for.

[Mapantz]

12Z now out:

  

[snowysouth]

Looking at all the information the rather predictable downgrades have started for us in Dorset, on the coast. Met office predicting sleet. I wish I could understand WHY it is so hard to get snow here. We used to get it all the time until the late 80s. 2010 now seems to be a once in a generation event. We never get upgrades here. Attention moves to next week now I think!