South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[wiltshire weather]

18 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Snow risk increased with 6z icon run. Further north too. Dare I say purbeck might get some too?

 

Yes the Icon 6z goes on to actually push this system across our whole region:

 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

8 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

 

Yes the Icon 6z goes on to actually push this system across our whole region:

 

Gfs has it just scraping the coast why do they keep flipping it’s too much 

[Cleeve Hill]

Just had a snow and ice warning for tonight on my met office app. 5cm 

[festivalking]

18 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs just to far south for most. Nerves are going to be shot as this is 90 hours away.

Indeed. I think even at 12 hours there will be uncertainties!

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Indeed. I think even at 12 hours there will be uncertainties!

Looking at this lot, going to far north is not the risk. Too far south is.

[wiltshire weather]

3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Gfs has it just scraping the coast why do they keep flipping it’s too much 

It's certainly knife edge stuff isn't it! It's one of those occasions when just 50 miles north or south makes such a difference!

And as @Cleeve Hill just posted, a new weather warning has just popped up for some of our area. Expect more over the coming days I think!

[Adrian Major]

big area in new MO warning for south wales, mid wales, Glos Worcs Bath Bristol etc. What are they seeing in latest models?

[Frosty_wsm]

Things suddenly looking a lot more interesting aren't they, I wonder if that front on Thursday ends up stalling on the south west, if it makes it this far at all that is & the flip in the mid term on the models is awesome to see with a scandi high looking to build. 

And before all that Tuesday is looking interesting as well for those further south & south west although it looks like I'll be too far north east to benefit. 

[wiltshire weather]

And just to show an example of how the cold may not really let go at all this is as far as the mild air gets at the end of the week (according to 6z GFS). This is Saturday evening:

 

before the cold starts pushing back (Sunday evening shown):

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by wiltshire weather
Remove extra image

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Adrian Major said:

big area in new MO warning for south wales, mid wales, Glos Worcs Bath Bristol etc. What are they seeing in latest models?

That will be based on the UKV output.  Been consistent in bringing an area of snow down into the West Country, albeit nothing too significant.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Looking at this lot, going to far north is not the risk. Too far south is.

Is not looking good would you say? I’m thinking coastal counties it will probably effect if anything 

[That ECM]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Is not looking good would you say? I’m thinking coastal counties it will probably effect if anything 

I’m thinking we will have to wait and see. 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Just now, That ECM said:

I’m thinking we will have to wait and see. 

That’s GEF. How reliable is that? Models keep flipping north and south between each run. Nightmare for forecasters! 

[That ECM]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

That’s GEF. How reliable is that? Models keep flipping north and south between each run. Nightmare for forecasters! 

Nothing is overly reliable wrt snow that far out.

[offerman]

1 hour ago, wiltshire weather said:

Looking through all the overnight runs all to play for this coming week with snow chances aplenty I think!

Tonight/tomorrow looks as though at least the eastern parts of our region may get a covering.

Monday onwards those showers could penetrate well over to our side of the world and if they band together or a disturbance forms (highly likely imho) then who knows what will come our way!

Then Tuesday night into Weds there is potential for snow in the south and west, possibly even reaching up here.

And then we start looking at the end of the week where the breakdown snow may well not get very far across the country before being pushed back.

And to cap it all it's beginning to look like the cold air is going to fight back (or never really go away!) even down here and potentially could turn even colder going into the following week.

Phew!

I'll be glued to my radar from tonight onwards for much of the week I think 

Great post WW 

my opinion to with the troughs and showers

[fromey]

I’ll take that thank you

Edited February 6, 2021 by fromey

[AWD]

22 minutes ago, AWD said:

That will be based on the UKV output.  Been consistent in bringing an area of snow down into the West Country, albeit nothing too significant.

To go back to this, latest UKV less bullish about any overnight snow fall now, but NW short range model shows the reasoning behind the newly introduced Meto advisory;

Latest Meto advisory for tonight in detail;

Edited February 6, 2021 by AWD

[Dorsetbred]

A grand morning out there, with the sea mist slowly burning back, but still visible in the beachcam shot tis morning..

[noonoo418]

Let's be honest, the most unpredictable weather to forecast is snow and many a time bands of showers have grouped together out of nothing and given us dustings. Case in point, only last Sunday, we suddenly had heavy snow which was not forecast at all.... Anything can and will happen... I suspect/hope that many of us will see some snow at some stage over the next week. 

[somersetwolf]

11 minutes ago, AWD said:

To go back to this, latest UKV less bullish about any overnight snow fall now, but NW short range model shows the reasoning behind the newly introduced Meto advisory;

Latest Meto advisory for tonight in detail;

Let’s hope that warning shifts a little further South for more of the region to join in. 

[gman88667733]

My MO app showed snow tonight at 2am for a good 6 hours and now just shows fog. What ?!

[divadee]

I left my window slightly open to get rid of the smell of paint last night, woke up absolutely freezing. Haven't set up my weather station at the new property yet but car was showing -4 at 8am. Now a glorious sunny day, and will be great for a walk and bike ride later on. 

[ARTDEMOLE]

Sunny with a few clouds. 4.6c Humidity 95% Rh

[That ECM]

Tuesday for Bournemouth has a max of zero. 20 mph ENE gust upto 40mph and it will feel like minus 8.

[noonoo418]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Tuesday for Bournemouth has a max of zero. 20 mph ENE gust upto 40mph and it will feel like minus 8.

That's impressive for Costa del Bournemouth!