South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Richard Fisher]

Looking like a very typical Easterly setup. Snow for the East coast, snow showers for east of England, East Mids and the odd snow flurry for the western side of the UK. Breakdown next week will be rain and sleet up to Glos where it will then start to turn to snow and give a decent event for areas further North. Dry for most of west between now and next week then a little wintryness before turning milder.

[That ECM]

47 minutes ago, Singularity said:

General impression at the mo for Sunday:

Rain turns to snow around 3 am plus or minus a few hours.

Could be heavy for a time - signs of a more organised line orientated north to south - but will have to overcome wet surfaces to settle.

Then, a regime of low cloud delivering snow grains but also, with any luck, some showers of actual flakes. By this time the dewpoint is zero or below so accumulation should occur readily - its just that there might not be that much to accumulate!

Possible exceptions are if and where streamers set up as one or more could reach parts of the region and deliver more frequent mainly light snow showers.

By Monday we may have lower 850s and some models hint at increased instability - it looks more ‘ripe’ for shower development.

Tuesday low risk can be seen. Just go north a touch.

[Singularity]

 

Looking at the organised line I referred to earlier - ICON shows it well here. It's uncertain how wet it will be ahead of it - this will significantly impact on accumulations. ICON has a brief spell of rain after a dry Saturday daytime.

 

AROME 00z has a very teasing end having shown no rain at all ahead of a fully transitioned area of precipitation approaching.

By contrast ARPEGE has a fair bit of rain - but also seems unable to resolve the cold air undercut very well.

I was going to include HIRLAM which I usually find especially good with precipitation areas - though it doesn't show type - but for some reason its run has the low tomorrow some 150 miles further west which then causes the Sunday low to head much further north-northwest than any other model shows. Too much of an outlying solution to merit further discussion at this time.

[That ECM]

This gfs run definitely gets close wrt Tuesday. 48 hours for this to change. 

[AWD]

My detailed thoughts have remained the same.  Get the cold in on Sunday and then evaluate, in detail, where we are in terms of snowfall etc.

My broad brush thoughts also remain the same.  Cold for all from Sunday, mainly dry away from eastern most districts of this threads region.  Flurries in the wind can't be ruled out anywhere though.  Same for Monday.  Tuesday onwards a lot more uncertainty for me personally, although as things stand the pendulum has swung to a less favourable outcome for the SW over the last 24 hours.  However, I do believe there will be further ups and downs regarding mid next week's weather and beyond, so not going to say much more on this for now.

So, summarising, colder for all from Sunday.  Little sign of a significant snowfall for the region as of now.  Milder air pushing in from the SW from Thursday.  More changes no doubt to come, possibility of discreet troughs/streamers setting up that aren't currently modelled though.

EDIT - latest from Ian similiar;

Cold and mainly dry (bar some flurries) Sun/Mon/Tues/Weds, much more uncertainty from Thursday.

Edited February 5, 2021 by AWD

[meshellby]

Marvellous, is there an M4 diversion this weekend?!

[Mapantz]

A low of 2.2°C this morning. A few showers and 8.8°C currently.

Very uninspiring output for down here again.

[noggin]

Just now, meshellby said:

Marvellous, is there an M4 diversion this weekend?!

I would rather be in the blank middle bit, than the poxy icy bit.....

[Bobafet]

9.6 and gloriously sunny today here on the IOW

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Well the Met updated the warning...shifting if further east! And adding an Amber for the SE as well.

So yes I think we can safely say nothing to see here, a few flakes Sunday morning isn’t anything to get excited about.

I’m not pinning my hopes on a snow to rain event next week either.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

This gfs run definitely gets close wrt Tuesday. 48 hours for this to change. 

do you think the low on Tuesday is close for snow showers that’s what it’s looking like

[noggin]

Just now, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

Well the Met updated the warning...shifting if further east! And adding an Amber for the SE as well.

So yes I think we can safely say nothing to see here, a few flakes Sunday morning isn’t anything to get excited about.

I’m not pinning my hopes on a snow to rain event next week either.

I agree. So disappointing,

[MJB]

And Matt Taylor on the 10:55 shows they still have NO clue on amounts and locations " we will firm up nearer the time "

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

do you think the low on Tuesday is close for snow showers that’s what it’s looking like

It’s soooooooooo close isn’t it. Tuesday is along time. Here’s hoping.

[Hampshire Hillbilly]

Any thoughts on the strength of the wind in North East Hants? 

During BFTE it didn’t feel like we had that much settled snow but the wind caused 10ft drifts blocking every road out of the village for ten days. 
Just trying to plan farm jobs and be prepared! 

I’m 650ft here so when it blows, it really blows! 

 

[birdman]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

And Matt Taylor on the 10:55 shows they still have NO clue on amounts and locations " we will firm up nearer the time "

Yes let's hope Oxfordshire sneak into the action! I'm sure those yellow warning will change over the next 48hrs. I might just colour in the barren white strip of hell yellow to make myself feel better lol

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Gone.

 

*sigh*

 

[That ECM]

They included Bournemouth, bless them.

[kumquat]

I think we'll see a couple of hours of snow in the NE of the region from midnight Saturday. I will await it with my Lilleys Cider, 3.5 million candle man torch and bated breath. I may throw in a sausage bap with brown sauce as a midnight snack.

Edited February 5, 2021 by kumquat

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Tuesday low risk can be seen. Just go north a touch.

If that misses us I quit weather lol

[The Enforcer]

8 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Gone.

 

*sigh*

 

Why must that E-W boundary have that kink in it, which takes out most of Oxfordshire, when counties both north and south are included?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Tuesday's low increasingly looks like missing us to the south, so probably a dry spell for the west of the region up until Thursday, maybe the odd flurry as others have mentioned, maybe up to a few cm in places in the east of the region.

Thursday's breakdown is still "up in the air" as far as I can see.  GFS and ECMWF have a snow to rain event in the north and east of the region with an all rain event for much of Devon and Cornwall, but the UKMO at T+144 (which so far has been verifying well) has the frontal attack further south, which might well result in more substantial snowfall for this region instead of the Midlands.  Also, it's not unusual for the models to revise this kind of setup further south with successive runs (like they did with Tuesday's low, which ironically looks likely to go too far south as a result).

[mattyj]

Bournemouth now under yellow snow warning 

[The Enforcer]

Yes we seem to be far enough East for snow from Mon-Weds, but not Sunday. It worries me that we get within 24 hours and the warning area retreats eastward again. Having said that these shouldn't be taken as gospel and there is plenty of other model evidence showing snow outside of the current warning areas. The warnings should really take a more hollistic view than being based on one or two select model outputs that could be at one or other extremety of the range.

[Mike the Fish]

Keep the faith guys, seeing lots of negativity here.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models other than the hi res ones, forecasting snow is difficult even for the most experienced meteorologist and is more of a now cast situation, so many factors involved.  Little features will pop up at short notice and will surprise many.  Remember, the warnings are only a guide and i think will change over the next few days.

Once the cold is established across the uk its often difficult to budge and in my opinion the models dont handle the breakdowns well.  Yes, coastal fringes are always going to struggle slightly because of the sea. As many have said the track of the low pressure system is key here and but i would bet money the position currently progged by the models at the moment will not be where it ends up.