Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward


AWD

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
1 hour ago, fromey said:

I would worry at this stage about snow forecast, where it’s going to fall and depths, it’s like trying to nail jelly to a wall! 

I just proper pahahahaed at that!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
41 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I can sense mapantz getting quietly excited.. 

I doubt it very much! It will always rain on him and snow half a mile away. Poor sod!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
40 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I'm gonna hold back expectations until friday 12z.

If train doesnt derail by then Ill buy my ticket 

I'm waiting for the train with you. I'm half way up the ramp though ...

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
1 hour ago, AWD said:

I think that model has been on the waccy baccy!! 

Was just about the say that.

Last week I set the GFS-P a test after it showed snow across our region on Saturday unlike other models that didn’t. It failed miserably but then so did other models that had nirvana for Wales and the Midlands. Instead, they had a day of watching it fall but not settle, just like we had last Sunday afternoon.

So for me GFS-P is still a work in progress but it would be lovely if it were right for this weekend.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
53 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

So... UKMO and icon have the low tracking south which gives a massive dumping of snow! ❄️ GFS has it tracking north which would be ☔️Rain . Which will it be? Hopefully ECM backs UKmo 

while not making any predictions, if you were asked to name the major model most likely to be ramming the Atlantic through too enthusiastically you would pick the GFS.......so you never know!!! 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Well just caught up with the latest after walking the dog, I think regardless of what happens Sunday we will get snow in many places down here. Even if the breakdown does happen it would still be snow for a time before turning to rain. Met office favour sliders so in my eyes were doing okay to be fair after the fax and met office warnings.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, Frank Trough said:

while not making any predictions, if you were asked to name the major model most likely to be ramming the Atlantic through too enthusiastically you would pick the GFS.......so you never know!!! 

 

Gfs has performed poorly in the last week and the GFS is poor with lows and always blows them up. I’ll always go with Uk met or ecm 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
2 hours ago, fromey said:

I would worry at this stage about snow forecast, where it’s going to fall and depths, it’s like trying to nail jelly to a wall! 

What like this you mean?

image.png.24c622fe6a4ffafc32b92f3e45f50d24.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
52 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Well just caught up with the latest after walking the dog, I think regardless of what happens Sunday we will get snow in many places down here. Even if the breakdown does happen it would still be snow for a time before turning to rain. Met office favour sliders so in my eyes were doing okay to be fair after the fax and met office warnings.

Have I missed something? The whole of the SW isn't under any warnings yet 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
52 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Well just caught up with the latest after walking the dog, I think regardless of what happens Sunday we will get snow in many places down here. Even if the breakdown does happen it would still be snow for a time before turning to rain. Met office favour sliders so in my eyes were doing okay to be fair after the fax and met office warnings.

Unused bag of road salt. Bought locally 8 years ago, never used, bargain @  £24...(by the end of next week, I'll be the sole owner in town with a bag of road salt...don't miss this bargain buy today)...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
6 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

What like this you mean?

image.png.24c622fe6a4ffafc32b92f3e45f50d24.png

God dam you!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Aye, the slider on Tuesday largely misses us (though some light precipitation shown for the SW to the north of it) and then a swift snow to rain event on Thursday.  However, only a minor revision south would put our region in the firing line and sometimes these setups do shift southwards as we get nearer the time.  I remember the unexpected South West snowfall of 31 January 2019 was forecast to be over the Midlands about 4-5 days before the event before being modelled further south with successive runs.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
6 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Aye, the slider on Tuesday largely misses us (though some light precipitation shown for the SW to the north of it) and then a swift snow to rain event on Thursday.  However, only a minor revision south would put our region in the firing line and sometimes these setups do shift southwards as we get nearer the time.  I remember the unexpected South West snowfall of 31 January 2019 was forecast to be over the Midlands about 4-5 days before the event before being modelled further south with successive runs.

Have you not seen ecm? It’s just stalling and completely misses all of us 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
6 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Aye, the slider on Tuesday largely misses us (though some light precipitation shown for the SW to the north of it) and then a swift snow to rain event on Thursday.  However, only a minor revision south would put our region in the firing line and sometimes these setups do shift southwards as we get nearer the time.  I remember the unexpected South West snowfall of 31 January 2019 was forecast to be over the Midlands about 4-5 days before the event before being modelled further south with successive runs.

mettoffice saying we in firing line next week significant snow for are region as they regen the lies won’t push to far into country so you probably find be upgrades come near time for us  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
9 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Have you not seen ecm? It’s just stalling and completely misses all of us 

Yes, I see a slider missing us to the south on Tuesday and then a quick snow to rain event on Thursday/Friday followed by cold air hanging on in the north, milder air in the south, and the cold air building back south/west at T+240.  I think there's a good chance that the Thursday/Friday event, being a week away, may get revised further south.  Ideally I would like the Tuesday low a bit further north though, and expect that one possibly to also end up a bit further south.  But the GFS 12Z does have a bit of precipitation over the SW to its north nonetheless.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

All in the hands if the weather Gods now regardless what models say regarding the breakdown. We're used to things being knife edge down here were a hardened bunch! Disappointing though seeing what the ECM did but things can just as easily swing for our favour yet though. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
28 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

mettoffice saying we in firing line next week significant snow for are region as they regen the lies won’t push to far into country so you probably find be upgrades come near time for us  

Where did Met say “firing line” 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...