South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[That ECM]

Imo warning area is based on where there is little doubt. These do and can change.

[AWD]

Very early to start gauging micro detail specifics regarding any potential snowfall yet.

Early, broad brush indications for Sat/Sun broadly in line with Meto yellow advisory (ie majority of snowfall east of Hampshire).  That's not to say other parts won't see light snow/flurries etc, just that nothing significant is forecast for the weekend for the majority of our area as things stand.

Main interest for our area will be into next week as Atlantic systems try and push in from the SW.  Many options on the table next week, plenty of them interesting!

[Bald Eagle]

We have always done pretty well here to East Side of Bristol out of an Easterly... a bit of IMBY there..sorry.. but there is alot of time between now and Sunday. Lots and lots can and will change.

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Bald Eagle said:

We have always done pretty well here to East Side of Bristol out of an Easterly... a bit of IMBY there..sorry.. but there is alot of time between now and Sunday. Lots and lots can and will change.

Where about in Bristol are you?  I'm east Bristol (Longwell Green).

[Bald Eagle]

12 minutes ago, AWD said:

Where about in Bristol are you?  I'm east Bristol (Longwell Green).

Between Kingswood and Staple Hill

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Bald Eagle said:

Between Kingswood and Staple Hill

Ahh, up around the leisure centre/Turnpike pub area then.  Got family up that way.

Here's hoping we can go sledging in Staple Hill park this time next week. 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

23 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Imo warning area is based on where there is little doubt. These do and can change.

Some have said the slider on Thursday will miss us? Surely if it’s a slider we are in for a better chance than the dartboard low? It’s looking good on the 6z charts for something more significant. What’s your thoughts on this? 

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Some have said the slider on Thursday will miss us? Surely if it’s a slider we are in for a better chance than the dartboard low? It’s looking good on the 6z charts for something more significant. What’s your thoughts on this? 

To far out imo but yes a dartboard low would not be good. I don’t see the dartboard idea, I’m not convinced the low will even make it over us. We will see. The trend has been good on the last few runs and a continuation of this would be great. Interesting eh?

[Nights King]

11 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Some have said the slider on Thursday will miss us? Surely if it’s a slider we are in for a better chance than the dartboard low? It’s looking good on the 6z charts for something more significant. What’s your thoughts on this? 

I would rather take some dry powder snow from the east than risk seeing some wet transient snow from west that could easily lead to disapointment. Lets hope these warnings dont stay to our north and east all next week. 

 

Not ready tyo change my avatar and jump aboard polar express just yet but im getting close 

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

I would rather take some dry powder snow from the east than risk seeing some wet transient snow from west that could easily lead to disapointment. Lets hope these warnings dont stay to our north and east all next week. 

 

Not ready tyo change my avatar and jump aboard polar express just yet but im getting close 

 

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

To far out imo but yes a dartboard low would not be good. I don’t see the dartboard idea, I’m not convinced the low will even make it over us. We will see. The trend has been good on the last few runs and a continuation of this would be great. Interesting eh?

The 10 day trend video on YouTube Exeter gave 3 scenarios 1) Low going into middle of country 2) South west 3) Northern France but said that the 3rd option could still deliver snow to southern areas. So hopefully our chances are high! Otherwise I don’t see us getting any snow this weekend/next if we don’t get a low... I can’t help but feel envious of the south east! 

[Frosty_wsm]

BBC weather still showing snow over a large part of the south on Sunday & for a fair few hours as well, including large parts of the west county. If it happens & any settles it could stick around & still be there when any Atlantic incursions happen later in the week. 

Ignore the above, recent bbc forecast has now completely changed and the snow is confined to east anglia lol.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Smartie

[Frank Trough]

The METO FAX charts don't suggest to me that the initial frontal stuff will get very far west, perhaps hence the warning areas?  But as we know, these will change between now and then and other little features could pop up. 

As for sliders next week i'd rather not be relying on them IMBY - any sort of onshore flow that hasn't got plenty of southeast  surface flow about it will be the dreaded "marginal".  I would rather it missed altogether to the south and kept the cold going a bit longer (stay in the game as long as you can and see what happens)  than gave us rain and a dumping to the midlands etc.  

mind you, if a slider goes completely right........:)

Edited February 4, 2021 by Frank Trough

[mattyj]

55 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Imo warning area is based on where there is little doubt. These do and can change.

Hi I'm in ferndown just u the road what's are chance's for snow thanks

[Dorsetbred]

After the earlier rain, the sun is trying it's hardest to break through the cloud covering, currently 9.6°C after 2,8mm of rain earlier..

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

1 hour ago, Rapodo said:

I'm wondering if they are waiting for the 12z today and tomorrow. East is nailed not so this side of things. 

Well if you look how far that warning came westwards from yesterday when it was just down the east coast, I think we stand a chance of further corrections nearer the time.

At the moment two days seems to be a long time when it comes to forecast synoptics so we shall see.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

5 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

The METO FAX charts don't suggest to me that the initial frontal stuff will get very far west, perhaps hence the warning areas?  But as we know, these will change between now and then and other little features could pop up. 

As for sliders next week i'd rather not be relying on them IMBY - any sort of onshore flow that hasn't got plenty of southeast  surface flow about it will be the dreaded "marginal".  I would rather it missed altogether to the south and kept the cold going a bit longer (stay in the game as long as you can and see what happens)  than gave us rain and a dumping to the midlands etc.  

mind you, if a slider goes completely right........:)

Completely off topic. I really do like your avatar and forum name. In honour of the great man.

[Dorsetbred]

I have this image of snow starved southerners in Salisbury ALL getting in their cars to reach the snowline, and yet remain within Government ruling of staying close to home to exercise...

[MidnightSnow]

I'm not usually one to look too far ahead, but it's hard to ignore 'what could be' next week. Already a bit of anxiety kicking in about where that LP system is going to track. If we get lucky, then there's going to be some ridiculous snow totals across southern England and Wales. Some of those snow estimation charts are the highest I've ever seen. It's gonna be painful if that low goes over N France 

[Ulysses]

I'm always optimistic when a E/NE flow is inbound of seeing the white stuff:)

[Bald Eagle]

56 minutes ago, AWD said:

Ahh, up around the leisure centre/Turnpike pub area then.  Got family up that way.

Here's hoping we can go sledging in Staple Hill park this time next week. 

Cossham side  

[CentralSouthernSnow]

9 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I'm not usually one to look too far ahead, but it's hard to ignore 'what could be' next week. Already a bit of anxiety kicking in about where that LP system is going to track. If we get lucky, then there's going to be some ridiculous snow totals across southern England and Wales. Some of those snow estimation charts are the highest I've ever seen. It's gonna be painful if that low goes over N France 

They said on 10 day trend that southern counties would still see snow if the low was on top of northern France. Let’s see what the 12z is saying! 

[Frosty_wsm]

26 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

The METO FAX charts don't suggest to me that the initial frontal stuff will get very far west, perhaps hence the warning areas?  But as we know, these will change between now and then and other little features could pop up. 

As for sliders next week i'd rather not be relying on them IMBY - any sort of onshore flow that hasn't got plenty of southeast  surface flow about it will be the dreaded "marginal".  I would rather it missed altogether to the south and kept the cold going a bit longer (stay in the game as long as you can and see what happens)  than gave us rain and a dumping to the midlands etc.  

mind you, if a slider goes completely right........:)

Yep recent bbc forecast completely changed now, just east anglia with snow, earlier forecast must have been pre-recordered or using old data.

[Mike the Fish]

Hey guys

Big yawn, coming out of hibernation for the upcoming cold spell, hope everyone is well.

So, having been watching the models over the last week, my take is that there is still a big amount of uncertainty regarding depth of cold, longevity, amounts of precipitation and type.  Yes, the South East, East Anglia and Central England are better positioned with regards to prolonged snow from the east.  The majority in the South West will probably struggle to see much other than maybe a fleeting shower, however as we go through the week our chances increase from slider lows, but as many have said position is key, too far north and we get rain and too far south we get nothing, hit the sweet spot and we get plastered.

Hold your nerve guys and keep the faith, our chance will come!!

 

[kold weather]

20 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Yep recent bbc forecast completely changed now, just east anglia with snow, earlier forecast must have been pre-recordered or using old data.

I never pay any attention to the BBC anymore, because it is a slave to the ECM output. Gone are the days of the blended output. So if the ECM is wrong the Beeb will also be wrong. So don't take the BBC too literally.

FWIW here is the 00z ECM at 15z and BBC forecast at the same time, its exactly the same (just lower resolution on the BBC for some reason)

  

Now of course you guys are quite far west, so you may struggle a little, especially in the western half, but the Beeb are not what they used to be...

Finally - the 06z ECM has pushed the heavier stuff into Hampshire, so thats a positive sign and moves it to closer alignment to the GFS 06z.

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

35 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

I have this image of snow starved southerners in Salisbury ALL getting in their cars to reach the snowline, and yet remain within Government ruling of staying close to home to exercise...

Thought this had all changed and it's all now east of Hants? Let alone Wilts