South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[gman88667733]

I live on Dartmoor, what are my rough chances of a good covering of snow? It seems like further North, many places could get days of snow coverage, it'd be nice to get some on the Moor as well!

We did well on the last snowfall a couple of weeks ago, but nothing major.

[Glenosnow]

45 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Just love these, shows the snow dome positioned nicely on Sunday...

And later in the day

And again later in the day

But I wont go there, time will tell...

Yes 2nd pic right on the outer edge on the right of the snow dome.....that'll be me then......

Hopefully we'll all get in on the action ❄

[John88B]

The latest from Fergie. All looking good.

Ian Fergusson (@fergieweather) Tweeted: W COUNTRY: Foundations of incoming markedly cold spell developing into Sunday onwards are well-set, with high confidence these conditions persist on into Mon, Tues, Weds (ECMWF temps below, #Bath shown). Some districts likely to see snow by Sunday. Longevity of cold still unclear https://t.co/EHj7lw7Cxa https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/1357250943058903043?s=20

[Frosty_wsm]

Talk of mild air only making it into the far south west when the battleground events start happening, so how does one nterpret that as to me the far south west is west devon & cornwall, others may disagree though. 

[Bald Eagle]

3 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Talk of mild air only making it into the far south west when the battleground events start happening, so how does one nterpret that as to me the far south west is west devon & cornwall, others may disagree though. 

There are some that think the South and South West  start at the Midlands according to the mod thread..anyway, an educated geographical guess would mean Devon and Cornwall.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Bald Eagle

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Talk of mild air only making it into the far south west when the battleground events start happening, so how does one nterpret that as to me the far south west is west devon & cornwall, others may disagree though. 

You don't try and interpret anything from the model thread.  You come in here for mature, level headed discussion on a regional level. 

[John88B]

Just now, Bald Eagle said:

There is some that think the South is the Midlands according to the mod thread..anyway, an educated geographical guess would mean Devon and Cornwall.

And plenty of snow for those north of there. 

[Frosty_wsm]

To be honest though, this could be the best spell of snowy weather for my back yard since Dec '81, that was similar with a succession of low pressure systems passing to the south west. Or it could all go horribly wrong but going by the met office 10 day trend video posted last night even they don't have a scooby doo just how far south (or indeed North) these systems will be tracking. 

I have noticed though that the surface high that's forecast to form over scandi seems to be getting under estimated by the models in terms of how strong it might be. 

Come on weather gods, be nice for once & give me a Dec '81 repeat, is that too much to ask

[SteveB]

2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

To be honest though, this could be the best spell of snowy weather for my back yard since Dec '81, that was similar with a succession of low pressure systems passing to the south west. Or it could all go horribly wrong but going by the met office 10 day trend video posted last night even they don't have a scooby doo just how far south (or indeed North) these systems will be tracking. 

I have noticed though that the surface high that's forecast to form over scandi seems to be getting under estimated by the models in terms of how strong it might be. 

Come on weather gods, be nice for once & give me a Dec '81 repeat, is that too much to ask

It certainly could be. I think this is the first proper battleground event on the internet era for our area.

Edited February 4, 2021 by SteveB

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's always more dicey for those of us in the South West and to a lesser extent Cent S England than in the east in this setup because if the frontal attacks from the Atlantic go too far south it stays dry, and if they go too far north it results in transitionary snow inland followed by rain, and an all rain event near the south coast.  But the potential has increased for the kind of snow events that this region of the UK saw in the winters of 1978, 1979 and 1982.  (I was thinking of that when considering the "law of averages" and thinking it was a bit much to expect two major events in March 2018 and a minor one in 2019 and then another in 2021, but there's that precedent in the late 70s/early 80s).

Edited February 4, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[Singularity]

 

I've been thinking about the dry zone that the models have been very keen on for the western Solent and into Dorset.

Looking at the airflow, there's a bit of divergence as it heads across that region. This is strangely consistent between the 00z model runs. I can see why they take apart the precipitation as a result - but do wonder if they're overdoing it a bit. When I think of similar past events, I can recall plenty of snow making it to this point, often in very showery form; fragments containing some moderate bursts.

This could be overcome, though, as the 06z GFS run shows. It shifted the low a little southwest, bringing the main thrust off the North Sea further south too.

As you can see, the dry zone no longer exists.

Long story short, I've some hope that the diverging flow issue won't prove too much for there to be at least a light covering of snow here by Sunday evening.

Fair to say, though, that it's not looking like much of an opening salvo in these parts (i.e. the south of the region covered by this thread) snow-wise - we may well rely on Atlantic incursion attempts to see much accumulation. Mon-Tue might provide some diurnal convection, though - it is February now, after all.

[suxer]

Not getting any work done looking at these bl##dy models

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Smartie said:

Talk of mild air only making it into the far south west when the battleground events start happening, so how does one nterpret that as to me the far south west is west devon & cornwall, others may disagree though. 

I would agree. A setup like Jan 13th 2010 comes to mind. The Atlantic didn’t break through at that point and it took another few days before any inroads were made.

[DanDorsetUK]

Looking good now me thinks! Dew points look okay from 6am Sunday. I'm pretty sure anything that does hit from then on will be snow. I'd say the slider is starting to look quite likely too for next week.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

MetO warnings just issued for Saturday

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Frosty_wsm]

Tell you what though, all those in the South East stressing about any mild sector etc etc & whether it'll snow or rain which the mod thread had been full of for days, they have no idea, they should try living in the south west & then they'd find out how stressful snowfall can be lol

[Turnedoutniceagain]

[suxer]

13 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

MetO warnings just issued for Saturday

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Just another 150 miles to the west please

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

12 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

MetO warnings just issued for Saturday

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Close, but no cigar...yet! Hoping for some westward corrections between now and Saturday, but getting anything out of an easterly set up like this is in our part of the world can be asking a lot.

The Met office taking some tap on Twitter for saying this is a Warning for the SW. Don’t you just love automation!

[DanDorsetUK]

Well that warning sucks! Even for Sunday. They obviously think it's not going to push anymore West. We may have to wait for a slider hopfully then. 

[noggin]

Just now, Turnedoutniceagain said:

I'll have that one, please! TVM ❄

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Well that warning sucks! Even for Sunday. They obviously think it's not going to push anymore West. We may have to wait for a slider hopfully then. 

You never know, still time for it to change.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

If we were to go with the latest GFS 06z run it’s Stellas all round for the SW on Sunday. But it’s the GFS

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Hahaha Isle of Wight  missing out again you couldn’t write it!!

[DanDorsetUK]

3 minutes ago, Wiltshireweatherwatcher said:

If we were to go with the latest GFS 06z run it’s Stellas all round for the SW on Sunday. But it’s the GFS

I'm wondering if they are waiting for the 12z today and tomorrow. East is nailed not so this side of things.