South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[snow go zone]

1 hour ago, snowlight robbery said:

Oh well .. better get the  Poole, Bournemouth and Purbeck snow shield out then! Guess we'll just see our normal predictable rain as always!

I fear you may be right ! 

[jtay]

Cracking day today. Tomorrow could be even better. 

Weather station is FUBAR, so have had to improvise with the Mash Tun thermometer strapped to the kitchen door.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

8 minutes ago, jtay said:

Cracking day today. Tomorrow could be even better. 

Weather station is FUBAR, so have had to improvise with the Mash Tun thermometer strapped to the kitchen door.

Why's there a demented looking sheep on your steps?

[SilverWolf]

2 hours ago, chris55 said:

Hey Silver, hopefully it'll pivot right over Stroud Snow all day.......

Hope so! Reckon @bellanite will be on here sometime soon, if not the morning.. it’s great there’s 3 of us from Stroud, a fairly small town really, especially as our bit of the Southwest is really quite north/north east and a bit out on a limb in this region. And we’re actually north of the M4....   Still, not in the Midlands, I’d feel way too far south then! Anyway enough very localised IMBYism.... 

[jtay]

3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Why's there a demented looking sheep on your steps?

It gets better beka... It lights up 

 

[SilverWolf]

1 minute ago, jtay said:

It gets better beka... It lights up 

 

Please tell us you made that.... 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 minutes ago, jtay said:

It gets better beka... It lights up 

 

I feel quite concerned! Not enough coat on that sheep to last tomorrow lol ... go get wrappin'!

[jtay]

Just now, SilverWolf said:

Please tell us you made that.... 

Alas, no. 

[SilverWolf]

1 minute ago, jtay said:

Alas, no. 

Good find! Hope it’s snow proof... 

[jtay]

2 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Good find! Hope it’s snow proof... 

We'll find out tomorrow.

[Adrian Major]

21 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Hope so! Reckon @bellanite will be on here sometime soon, if not the morning.. it’s great there’s 3 of us from Stroud, a fairly small town really, especially as our bit of the Southwest is really quite north/north east and a bit out on a limb in this region. And we’re actually north of the M4....   Still, not in the Midlands, I’d feel way too far south then! Anyway enough very localised IMBYism.... 

Hi I am also from Stroud, well Rodborough and have been studying charts all day. How much snow do you think we will get. Bit worried about GFS 12z and much prefer the ECM!

[fromey]

If anyone doesn’t have weather station There’s   an app called PWS, you can pick weather stations around you to keep up to date.

my weather station from here in frome

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFROME5

 

 

 

 

 

[noonoo418]

36 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Hope so! Reckon @bellanite will be on here sometime soon, if not the morning.. it’s great there’s 3 of us from Stroud, a fairly small town really, especially as our bit of the Southwest is really quite north/north east and a bit out on a limb in this region. And we’re actually north of the M4....   Still, not in the Midlands, I’d feel way too far south then! Anyway enough very localised IMBYism.... 

Am in Stroud District....

[Frosty_wsm]

The mod thread is turning into the midlands thread, they all want the snow, well hasn't that area had snow already out of this weather pattern  we've been in for a while where all we've had down here is rain! 

Well tonight I'm being Mr scrooge & the greedy midlanders can bugger off lol, hope it just strikes the the south west & far south, if only so I can see how many   !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sheikky or whatever his name is now can come out with when the snow misses him

[SilverWolf]

See all the Stroudies are coming out the woodwork! With regards tomorrow  @Adrian Major I’m not the best person to ask, @chris55 has far more model knowledge than me. However looking at a lot of different charts re snowfall/depth our bit of the world looks pretty promising, all the charts show at least some snow here, some show a good amount especially higher up. The precip charts that show a pivot happening as it passes over are the best for us, as we are pretty much where the pivot happens on most of those. Could be all day snow, and it won’t take much to settle even if it’s not that heavy (cars freezing up already..) 

But! It’s snow and very hard to predict. I’m confident that whatever falls from the sky will be snow, but how much? Have a look out the window early tomorrow say 6am. That’ll be the start! 

[Dorsetbred]

By 'eck it's clear out there tonight, good to see..and nice and refreshingly cool 0.1°C..  

[Adrian Major]

Just now, SilverWolf said:

See all the Stroudies are coming out the woodwork! With regards tomorrow  @Adrian Major I’m not the best person to ask, @chris55 has far more model knowledge than me. However looking at a lot of different charts re snowfall/depth our bit of the world looks pretty promising, all the charts show at least some snow here, some show a good amount especially higher up. The precip charts that show a pivot happening as it passes over are the best for us, as we are pretty much where the pivot happens on most of those. Could be all day snow, and it won’t take much to settle even if it’s not that heavy (cars freezing up already..) 

But! It’s snow and very hard to predict. I’m confident that whatever falls from the sky will be snow, but how much? Have a look out the window early tomorrow say 6am. That’ll be the start! 

Yes looks promising but years of disappointment make me nervous plus see that the ECM shows snow to be a bit further north though not seen the latest version yet myself 

[SilverWolf]

3 minutes ago, Adrian Major said:

Yes looks promising but years of disappointment make me nervous plus see that the ECM shows snow to be a bit further north though not seen the latest version yet myself 

I do wonder if a bit further north may be a good thing if it pivots properly? Depends how far north of course... 

Edited January 23, 2021 by SilverWolf

[dec10snow]

15 minutes ago, Smartie said:

The mod thread is turning into the midlands thread, they all want the snow, well hasn't that area had snow already out of this weather pattern  we've been in for a while where all we've had down here is rain! 

Well tonight I'm being Mr scrooge & the greedy midlanders can bugger off lol, hope it just strikes the the south west & far south, if only so I can see how many   !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sheikky or whatever his name is now can come out with when the snow misses him

Was my thinking, they’re all going on about how FURTHER NORTH!!! Wooo! Meanwhile I’m a little concerned about the hole in all the snow maps around Taunton/up to Weston 

[AWD]

Just now, dec10snow said:

Was my thinking, they’re all going on about how FURTHER NORTH!!! Wooo! Meanwhile I’m a little concerned about the hole in all the snow maps around Taunton/up to Weston 

To be fair, latest 12z EC is much further north, primarily affecting the Midlands now.  Only one of many possibilities may I add.

Think leave the models and move onto radar watching tonight.

[alex12]

I think its down to radar watching tonight I agree! All eyes on the radar! 

[SilverWolf]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

To be fair, latest 12z EC is much further north, primarily affecting the Midlands now.  Only one of many possibilities may I add.

Think leave the models and move onto radar watching tonight.

Very good advice... it’s already creeping across Ireland, even a look at the radar at midnight will be more revealing than predictions now... if it doesn’t fizzle out of course. 

[alex12]

1 minute ago, SilverWolf said:

Very good advice... it’s already creeping across Ireland, even a look at the radar at midnight will be more revealing than predictions now... if it doesn’t fizzle out of course. 

All fingers crossed for some of us all in the region! Let it be our turn in the SW for a change!

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, alex12 said:

All fingers crossed for some of us all in the region! Let it be our turn in the SW for a change!

Lets keep everything crossed

[SilverWolf]

Here’s the current radar (not sure I’m allowed to do this as it’s the one you pay for, but hey ho...)

The arrows are the 700hpa wind vectors which can often (but really not always!) give an indication of the direction precipitation is travelling at any one time. Of course this can change, precip can ‘run out’ etc etc, but it’s a possibility right now. Of course it also won’t show any potential pivot right now. The precip over Ireland is a mix of sleet and snow, but I guess it is warmer there than it will be here by the time it gets here (if it does!). See what occurs, if someone way more knowledgeably than me wants to point out I’m being naive with what I’ve said, please speak up!