Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[jello]

ECM look good too for later 

[ronan]

Just now, jello said:

ECM look good too for later 

That definitely ties in with the GFS. They look identical. 

[Summer Snow]

GFS on same page as ECM now.. maybe even better.....front stalls over Ireland from Thursday morning until Friday afternoon.....next front coming in makes it to west coast and gets pushed back out in to Atlantic as pressure builds again to our north east .....Met Eireann at 9.30 on RTE talking about widespread significant snow Thursday in to Friday mentioning Ireland being battleground between Atlantic fronts and blocking high to the east with Ireland still sitting in the colder air.....UK Met also only give a small chance of front reaching South west England......long way to go but this is shaping up very nicely.....also risk of snow falls up to then but currently amounts shown to be small on models for here but expect surprises to pop up .....exciting times.....and to top it all off looking like cold could dig in again the following week courtesy of scandi high ....hard to keep up ha 

[ronan]

12 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

GFS on same page as ECM now.. maybe even better.....front stalls over Ireland from Thursday morning until Friday afternoon.....next front coming in makes it to west coast and gets pushed back out in to Atlantic as pressure builds again to our north east .....Met Eireann at 9.30 on RTE talking about widespread significant snow Thursday in to Friday mentioning Ireland being battleground between Atlantic fronts and blocking high to the east with Ireland still sitting in the colder air.....UK Met also only give a small chance of front reaching South west England......long way to go but this is shaping up very nicely.....also risk of snow falls up to then but currently amounts shown to be small on models for here but expect surprises to pop up .....exciting times.....and to top it all off looking like cold could dig in again the following week courtesy of scandi high ....hard to keep up ha

Defintely exciting times. Big snowfall later in the week then high pressure taking hold. Day time temps struggling means snow on the ground for quite a while. Reminds me of how 2010 went with snowfall at the start of December then minus temps for 4 weeks after. Not saying that's how it will pan out but very possible. 

[Cavehill Snow]

As well as big slow down in eastward progression & better snowfall prospects for all, Radiohead posted some charts on Model thread:-

1. "Milder" air reaches Ireland on Friday, temps ranging from 9C W Kerry, 2-4C Irish Midlands and 0-1C NI.

2. By Saturday, cold air coming back from east. Upper air 850 Temps ranging from -4C to -6C.

3. By Monday everyone under uppers temps of -10C to -14C.

I would post his charts if i could but I can only work out how to post links on my phone.

Hopefully all this comes to pass though if the corrections keep happening at this rate the Atlantic fronts won't even reach us. Suppose we should wait to Monday / Tuesday for confidence on outcome.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Cavehill Snow

[Summer Snow]

10 minutes ago, ronan said:

Defintely exciting times. Big snowfall later in the week then high pressure taking hold. Day time temps struggling means snow on the ground for quite a while. Reminds me of how 2010 went with snowfall at the start of December then minus temps for 4 weeks after. Not saying that's how it will pan out but very possible. 

Charts for end of next week have a Jan 1982 look about them as things stand....24-36 hours of snow with a stalling front and gale force winds ... I would say a weather warning will be going up early next week as if the charts are looking similar to tonight's

 

 

 

[Sperrin]

Here is a link to @radiohead post from model thread. Looks like we'll hang on to the cold in the North before it moves back across all of Ireland. Genuinely crazy charts there on the pub run. Imagine if it verified! 

Really hope those fronts push in and stall later next week!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Sperrin

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

3 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

Here is a link to @radiohead post from model thread. Looks like we'll hang on to the cold in the North before it moves back across all of Ireland. Genuinely crazy charts there on the pub run. Imagine if it verified! 

Really hope those fronts push in and stall later next week!

As its the pub run I will keep my expectations  managed! Anyway at least there is the potential of something interesting

[ronan]

1 minute ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

As its the pub run I will keep my expectations  managed! Anyway at least there is the potential of something interesting

I would say its very interesting

[Juuyoku]

Keeping an eye on this, later in the week has some potential. The other half got a new job thats literally a five minute walk from our house so was joking with him that there'll be no snow days in his future 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Juuyoku

[The Weather Watcher]

Showers/streamers already showing for South Down. Anyone in the area to confirm? I'll not be able to start snow hunting til the afternoon and Monday.

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:

Showers/streamers already showing for South Down. Anyone in the area to confirm? I'll not be able to start snow hunting til the afternoon and Monday.

Just rain here although radar says snow.

[The Weather Watcher]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Just rain here although radar says snow.

Coldest 850 temps not arrived yet, but looks promising precipitation wise. -10 line doesn't hit our shores until the afternoon, currently around -7 850's.

[Summer Snow]

ECM snow depth charts below  for Thursday, Friday and Saturday

ECM like UKMO pushes front further east than previous run but this will likely to and fro for another few days. GEM is a peach and keeps the cold air in situ for weekend. GFS a halfway house... Still a long way out so liable to more changes..   hopefully snow between now and then for some.   Met Eireann talking about moderate accumulations now for Tuesday so an upgrade this morning from them in shorter term..although they mention rain,sleet or snow showers in forecast for next few days .  Would have thought with the cold uppers involved these showers would be mainly snow.    

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I'll post this chart - I assume its not a bad chart for Friday? 

[ronan]

Thursday/Friday still looks great. I really hope this comes off. Hours of heavy snow. We are all long overdue a good dumping of snow. GFS showing 12 hours of snow from Thursday evening. 

Edited February 7, 2021 by ronan

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Meto warnings out from tonight for parts of NI up till Wednesday,  starts out with as an ice warning tonight then snow and ice, Down and Armagh the main warning area

[Ever Hopeful]

We’ve been upgraded from sleet to snow on Friday - East Antrim - by Met office, everywhere else showing snow-snow-snow. Fingers firmly crossed. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

This has to be highly unlikely

[na52]

3 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

This has to be highly unlikely

Unlikely but I do get the feeling there is a good bit of weather to be had between now and end of month 

[gary1365]

The model thread must be like Christmas morning today 

 

[The Weather Watcher]

21 minutes ago, gary1365 said:

The model thread must be like Christmas morning today 

 

The SE regional thread was a right laugh this morning because the precipitation started out as rain. Some members did indeed take it badly and started bad mouthing some of the main MOD posters.

[mountain shadow]

48 minutes ago, gary1365 said:

The model thread must be like Christmas morning today 

 

It might be snowing but it's not sticking it would appear. There is much angst in that thread.

[BIG LAD]

Some light graupel falling now. Just about see it blowing in the wind. Bitter outside. Temp 1.5c.

[SnowJon]

Tiniest flurry of graupel here at the moment