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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
    5 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

    As I thought, Models already starting to firm up that Atlantic is not going to barrel through as previously shown....GEM, ECM and to lesser extent UKMO stalling the fronts over Ireland later next week with pressure building over Scandinavia.....any milder interlude if any looks fairly short lived......ECM snow accumulation charts showing most of Ireland  covered in snow from 144 to 240, even though 850hpa temps are rising, as continental feed at surface still in place, with colder reload incoming....long way to run on this yet but increasingly models are coming in to line that Atlantic will be up against it....in the shorter term GEM showing much better snow shower distribution while other models are disappointing compared to amounts forecast for Britain....however shower activity will pop up with some lucky and others missing out, before potentially more widespread snowfall later in the week....brilliant seeing this all unfold.....also noticed 850hpa temps are projected lower next week than previously modelled with many places under -10 to -11 uppers....ground temps could struggle to reach freezing under those conditions and with low dew points, any snow that falls should hang around in most places......exciting week coming up.....

    Ha I love the positivity. I've been quietly lurking in the background keeping an eye on things but posts like these make me happy 🙂 As you say there is still a lot to be sorted regarding later next week and frontal snow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    4 minutes ago, ronan said:

    Ha I love the positivity. I've been quietly lurking in the background keeping an eye on things but posts like these make me happy 🙂 As you say there is still a lot to be sorted regarding later next week and frontal snow. 

    Absolutely Ronan....It only happens every rarely, but most of Ireland best snowfalls have come from Atlantic fronts stalling over us against a very cold block to the east ....Later next week is one of those rare opportinities....not a given but confidence is rising....will be fascinating to watch it all unfold over coming days 

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    Just to add a snow cover chart for Friday to back up Summer Snows post.

    Looks like south & west will do better than north & east so most of the snow must be frontal snow approaching from Atlantic Thursday / Friday. 

    If i was any way tech savvi, id have been able to post the chart instead of everyone having hit the link to download

    snowdepth_20210206_00_144.webp

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    Precipitation charts from various models show showers for east & south coasts Tuesday & Wednesday. East coast precip is in the form of showers, south coast in relation to its proximity to a small disturbance from Atlantic headed towards Cornwall & NW France on Tuesday night. Some model indicate modest snow cover from these events, others diddly squat. Still looking good for Friday's snow from Atlantic - lets hope it stays as snow, doesn't turn back to rain and the snow isn't a wet slushy mess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
    14 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

    I’m just still trying to convince myself to be content that cold and dry is better than warm and wet!

    Oh I will take the cold and dry everytime at least you can get stuff done outside 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

    Little bit of better news from the 6z?

     

    Screenshot_20210206-105131_Twitter.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    2 hours ago, Summer Snow said:

    Absolutely Ronan....It only happens every rarely, but most of Ireland best snowfalls have come from Atlantic fronts stalling over us against a very cold block to the east ....Later next week is one of those rare opportinities....not a given but confidence is rising....will be fascinating to watch it all unfold over coming days 

    Working last night, so popped the phone out from time to time to watch the overnight runs unfold. Delighted! Fair play to you, you did suggest GFS was as usual overplaying Atlantic low and not handling heights into Scandi! Kudos to you for that. My naturally pessimistic outlook wasn’t convinced at all. It’s been brilliant model watching these last few weeks! I’m off until Tuesday now, so hopefully I’ll get to enjoy snow with the brats!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    29 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    Working last night, so popped the phone out from time to time to watch the overnight runs unfold. Delighted! Fair play to you, you did suggest GFS was as usual overplaying Atlantic low and not handling heights into Scandi! Kudos to you for that. My naturally pessimistic outlook wasn’t convinced at all. It’s been brilliant model watching these last few weeks! I’m off until Tuesday now, so hopefully I’ll get to enjoy snow with the brats!

    Not a done deal yet Rochey but certainly heading in right direction....GFS 6z now joining the party......just a little more correction and we are there...enjoy your days off and hopefully snow for you to enjoy......Dublin should do well as is normally the case with easterlies...

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    Latest GFS model run has very cold air in Scandanavia dropping into mainland Europe and heading towards SE England next weekend. Mild air gets into most of Ireland by next Friday though we should see some frontal snowfall Thursday night / Friday morning. Through the weekend the cold wants to head back westwards again and on Sunday temperatures for us range from 0 C across the northeast to 9C in southwest. At the same time many parts of England are circa minus 4C daytime and do not see any mild air next week at all. If this goes right, Ireland should be joining in the extreme cold temperatures again though probably staying dry at that stage.

    Edited by Cavehill Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    2 hours ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    Latest GFS model run has very cold air in Scandanavia dropping into mainland Europe and heading towards SE England next weekend. Mild air gets into most of Ireland by next Friday though we should see some frontal snowfall Thursday night / Friday morning. Through the weekend the cold wants to head back westwards again and on Sunday temperatures for us range from 0 C across the northeast to 9C in southwest. At the same time many parts of England are circa minus 4C daytime and do not see any mild air next week at all. If this goes right, Ireland should be joining in the extreme cold temperatures again though probably staying dry at that stage.

    UK Met latest forecast hot off the shelves.....only a small chance that far South West of England  sees snow or rain  from front on Thursday.....NI not mentioned.   that strongly suggests they see front stalling over southern / central Ireland on Thursday and not making much progress east......let's see how this pays out ....

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    12 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

    UK Met latest forecast hot off the shelves.....only a small chance that far South West of England  sees snow or rain  from front on Thursday.....NI not mentioned.   that strongly suggests they see front stalling over southern / central Ireland on Thursday and not making much progress east......let's see how this pays out ....

    That sounds really good for your location as the snow shouldn't turn back to rain and the mild air doesn't get in. 

    Up here we will be relying on streamers / showers coming in off the sea - very localised hit & miss stuff. Still looking forward to the cold & frost. It will be difficult watching the news & seeing the various regions get their snow if it is green and not white outside my window! If you get good snow cover, you will get sub -10C overnight lows and barely reaching zero daytime. But you will want too much more corrections south west as it may not reach your location either.

    Edited by Cavehill Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    2 hours ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    That sounds really good for your location as the snow shouldn't turn back to rain and the mild air doesn't get in. 

    Up here we will be relying on streamers / showers coming in off the sea - very localised hit & miss stuff. Still looking forward to the cold & frost. It will be difficult watching the news & seeing the various regions get their snow if it is green and not white outside my window! If you get good snow cover, you will get sub -10C overnight lows and barely reaching zero daytime. But you will want too much more corrections south west as it may not reach your location either.

    Never easy is it ha ha.....too far east we get milder air quickly following and too far West we miss out....easterlies usually very good here so I am hopeful to see a covering of snow from showers earlier in period before the Atlantic front hits later. 

     UKMO and GEM look good for stalling front Thursday with snow also reaching the north so everyone in the game.....GFS gives several hours of snow before front pushes northeast with milder air following but I suspect it is too quick so we will see....looking forward to see if ECM sticks to it's guns from this morning .....any warm up if any over weekend looking short lived looking at trends for scandi heights to quickly build for following week ... ..lots to play for short and long term ......I am sure there will be surprise snow falls earlier in week also for some areas maybe not directly in the firing line of an easterly..... and some will miss out but that's always the way....even storm Emma did not blanket the whole Island and that was extreme.  

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    Posted
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl

    Noticeably colder wind this evening. Temp currently 3.6c. nice bit of drying today and I'm really looking forward to a few cold days and frosty nights and always the chance of a bit of snow wherever you live.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    2 hours ago, Summer Snow said:

    Never easy is it ha ha.....too far east we get milder air quickly following and too far West we miss out....easterlies usually very good here so I am hopeful to see a covering of snow from showers earlier in period before the Atlantic front hits later. 

     UKMO and GEM look good for stalling front Thursday with snow also reaching the north so everyone in the game.....GFS gives several hours of snow before front pushes northeast with milder air following but I suspect it is too quick so we will see....looking forward to see if ECM sticks to it's guns from this morning .....any warm up if any over weekend looking short lived looking at trends for scandi heights to quickly build for following week ... ..lots to play for short and long term ......I am sure there will be surprise snow falls earlier in week also for some areas maybe not directly in the firing line of an easterly..... and some will miss out but that's always the way....even storm Emma did not blanket the whole Island and that was extreme.  

    ECM leaves basically the whole Island covered in snow Thursday and Friday ....smaller amounts up to then mainly in the east....

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
    1 minute ago, Summer Snow said:

    ECM leaves basically the whole Island covered in snow Thursday and Friday ....smaller amounts up to then mainly in the east....

    Any tasty looking snow charts to show us? Not sure how to access the ECM charts. I am quietly confident for the end of next week's. Its just too far away yet to get excited. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Co. Derry/Londonderry, NI
  • Location: Co. Derry/Londonderry, NI
    36 minutes ago, ronan said:

    Any tasty looking snow charts to show us? Not sure how to access the ECM charts. I am quietly confident for the end of next week's. Its just too far away yet to get excited. 

    I'm quietly optimistic for next week despite being a general pessimist these days! All I'd say is that the ECMWF's precipitation output is wildly overdone sometimes in my eyes. Especially when the white stuff is involved. Always good to look at them!

     

    Here they are for the end of next week from tameteo.com:

    ECMWF_126_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

    ECMWF_144_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    1 hour ago, ronan said:

    Any tasty looking snow charts to show us? Not sure how to access the ECM charts. I am quietly confident for the end of next week's. Its just too far away yet to get excited. 

    These are ECM snow depth charts Wednesday to Saturday ....more or less all areas covered at some point....northern areas better later 

    Screenshot_20210206-213438_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210206-213418_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210206-213354_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210206-213504_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

    That last chart looks perfect for a trek up the Glenshane. I wouod say it will be a Monday or Tuesday before we know how it will pan out. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carrickfergus
  • Location: Carrickfergus
    4 minutes ago, ronan said:

    That last chart looks perfect for a trek up the Glenshane. I wouod say it will be a Monday or Tuesday before we know how it will pan out. 

    Getting back off the Glenshane might be the trouble! 😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
    16 minutes ago, ronan said:

    That last chart looks perfect for a trek up the Glenshane. I wouod say it will be a Monday or Tuesday before we know how it will pan out. 

    Yes not to be taken literally but good to see at this range...many changes to come  I am sure  

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
    20 minutes ago, Ever Hopeful said:

    Getting back off the Glenshane might be the trouble! 😄 

    That will do me nicely. Might find a back door in to the Ponderosa for a nice cold pint 😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Far South East of England has an orange weather warning for a whopping 5cm of snow!

    Hardly the beast from the east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry

    GFS 18Z looks even better for us snow wise later in the week. That front all further West to? 

    Screenshot_20210206_222010.jpg

    Edited by ronan
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