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Posted
  • Location: Newtownards, Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: whatever the weather, I'll be watching.
  • Location: Newtownards, Northern Ireland
8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Met office update. downgrade to high ground snow..

 

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I've lost faith in the meto updates. They didn't show snow or mention snow in their text or automated forecasts for the Saturday past event for my area. Looking at the charts shows particularly Saturday to hold interest, and even with Sunday, it's things on a knife edge before milder air heads NE again. I think by Friday night we will know best.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
7 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:

I've lost faith in the meto updates. They didn't show snow or mention snow in their text or automated forecasts for the Saturday past event for my area. Looking at the charts shows particularly Saturday to hold interest, and even with Sunday, it's things on a knife edge before milder air heads NE again. I think by Friday night we will know best.

Yes. That snow was very poorly forecast but well received none the less!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS wants to give Northern counties a pasting on Saturday morning now!

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This first front has trended north on Saturday meeting the cold air what year was it something similar to this happened 2015 think you were the sweet spot that time to?

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

This first front has trended north on Saturday meeting the cold air what year was it something similar to this happened 2015 think you were the sweet spot that time to?

They way the incoming troughs keep getting pushed south East, i'm concerned the snow ends up in France!

The snow to rain event has pushed South too but still there on Monday..

image.thumb.png.c0ef55bd083f8bdf62ea6fde41931ec8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

They way the incoming troughs keep getting pushed south East, i'm concerned the snow ends up in France!

The snow to rain event has pushed South too but still there on Monday..

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Saturday seems to be are only hope the first low is trended north then the high pressure builds to are north and sunday low is trending south.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
58 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I went for a walk today in nearby forest. Its 150m asl and shaded. Was surprised that there was still patches of ice. Slipped a couple of times ha.

That's mad Ted! We registered 10 degrees here twice in the last 48 hours. Bucketing down rain here, the road outside is starting to flood. Maybe a yellow warning for the Dublin area would have been on the cards? Once again, Mother Nature decides!!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland

Very wet for many next few days unfortunately... however Models starting to firm up on much colder weather setting in during next week.....still chance of snow for some over weekend more likely in northern parts if precipitation pushes far enough north. Maybe also high ground in eastern areas such as Wicklow  mountains etc.....but this winter has been full of surprises so can't rule anything out.....longer term though an exciting February imcoming by looks of things......possibly cold spells also in to March with how lag effects of SSW impact aka 2013...but that's a long way off. ..exciting times ..... 

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Posted
  • Location: Derry
  • Location: Derry
25 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Plenty of rain during the night, according to Angie on the BBC NI news its looking dry for the weekend 

Well that's what they were saying about last weekend to and look how that turned out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
39 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Plenty of rain during the night, according to Angie on the BBC NI news its looking dry for the weekend 

Angie was wrong last weekend too. 

The 0z GFS had continuous snow on Saturday for the North East.

I said yesterday the worry was it all slips South East and that indeed is what is currently happening. 

The models always underlay the block.

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Posted
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl
  • Location: north monaghan 120mts[400ft]asl

8c this morning and ground is thoroughly soaked. Bring back the frost please.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

GFS 6z says Angie is wrong..

image.thumb.png.804bb11007a104fb0e93fe36da6d8362.png

Nigh on 12 hours of snow according to this run

 

Although GFS PARA is further South and better for the central and eastern counties..

image.thumb.png.96670eee2f65f7eab461dbbb598f7b37.png

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 6z says Angie is wrong..

image.thumb.png.804bb11007a104fb0e93fe36da6d8362.png

Nigh on 12 hours of snow according to this run

 

Although GFS PARA is further South and better for the central and eastern counties..

image.thumb.png.96670eee2f65f7eab461dbbb598f7b37.png

Quite a difference between the two models alright ...snow in North on GFS and snow in east / south east on Para.......slight difference in track on a global scale having major different outcomes on our tiny Island....This could go down to 6 to 12 hours before we have better idea and even then liable to changes....as we saw last weekend 

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
  • Location: Co.Tyrone
19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 6z says Angie is wrong..

image.thumb.png.804bb11007a104fb0e93fe36da6d8362.png

Nigh on 12 hours of snow according to this run

 

Although GFS PARA is further South and better for the central and eastern counties..

image.thumb.png.96670eee2f65f7eab461dbbb598f7b37.png

Which usually performs better, is it Para or 6z? Or is it a case of stick yer head out the window on Saturday and that will tell ye?

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Which usually performs better, is it Para or 6z? Or is it a case of stick yer head out the window on Saturday and that will tell ye?

PARA is supposedly the upgraded GFS and is scheduled to replace the existing GFS next month. Early signs is that it is better up to 3 or 4 days then absolutely dreadful thereafter.

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Posted
  • Location: Newtownards, Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: whatever the weather, I'll be watching.
  • Location: Newtownards, Northern Ireland
2 hours ago, Summer Snow said:

Quite a difference between the two models alright ...snow in North on GFS and snow in east / south east on Para.......slight difference in track on a global scale having major different outcomes on our tiny Island....This could go down to 6 to 12 hours before we have better idea and even then liable to changes....as we saw last weekend 

If it's anything like last week it'll be nowcasting. Remember we weren't expecting the front to be so far North (supposed to remain at the border area), it ended up being close to Derry in the end.  

Unless there is a major shift in the front, I'll be keeping an eye on its progress on the day.

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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
30 minutes ago, The Weather Watcher said:

If it's anything like last week it'll be nowcasting. Remember we weren't expecting the front to be so far North (supposed to remain at the border area), it ended up being close to Derry in the end.  

Unless there is a major shift in the front, I'll be keeping an eye on its progress on the day.

Yes and 2 days beforehand FAX Chart had it not going further than Wexford / Wicklow.....long way to go, and as you say probably a nowcasting situation on the day 

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