Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[Rocheydub]

Sorry folks, I just jinxed it! I ordered 2 tonnes of logs to be delivered Saturday... If that doesn't kill it, nothing will!

Seriously though, could really do with this promised snowy spell, it's been a tough year for all, but the last few weeks have been horrendous. Be nice to have something to do with the family outside! 

[booferking]

I'm almost there so many let downs the last 10 years with a cut of Greenland high if all models show tomorrow afternoon I'm on like donkey Kong 

[mountain shadow]

18 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Sorry folks, I just jinxed it! I ordered 2 tonnes of logs to be delivered Saturday... If that doesn't kill it, nothing will!

 

I ordered a sledge last Friday!

[Rocheydub]

Seriously though, for a moment... Work has buggered me over the last year, and in particular the last few weeks. I/we really could do with this. Need some "normality" or even "fun" for us as a group! Fingers crossed everybody.

[mountain shadow]

Disappointing UKMO puts the breaks on the celebrations as it would delay the colder air.

I'm still confusing we will be in the colder air by the 21st but confidence levels down to 70%.

[ronan]

As they say MS...... Its only one run. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Disappointing UKMO puts the breaks on the celebrations as it would delay the colder air.

I'm still confusing we will be in the colder air by the 21st but confidence levels down to 70%.

They added the @Rocheydub bought logs data didn't, if that doesn't scream mild nothing else will

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

They added the @Rocheydub bought logs data didn't, if that doesn't scream mild nothing else will

Ha ha. No it's definitely going to be turning much colder, just a matter of when.

If the  lows in the Atlantic phase at Day 5 then the cold will be delayed to day 9/10, if however, they don't, we will be in colder air by this time next week.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Ha ha. No it's definitely going to be turning much colder, just a matter of when.

If the  lows in the Atlantic phase at Day 5 then the cold will be delayed to day 9/10, if however, they don't, we will be in colder air by this time next week.

That's earlier that I expected, anything before the 21st is a bonus to me

[ronan]

I have a real good feeling about all this. What really does my head in is people in the model thread  throwing the toys out in the early stages of each run that comes out. I think we are nearly at the stage where a colder spell is nailed on. 

[Weegaz]

Could we get westwards correction, is has that ship sailed? 

 

[Sperrin]

The latest update from Judah Cohen...this guy knows his stuff!

For the next two weeks ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies near Greenland will anchor troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Europe coupled with normal to below normal temperatures for much of Europe but especially Northern Europe including the United Kingdom (UK).  In addition, the atmosphere is becoming stacked (the stratosphere and troposphere are aligned) so that the main center of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) between the Urals and Scandinavia will help to anchor a strong negative height center in the mid-troposphere in the same region below.  

Get off that fence @mountain shadow and get 2 tonnes more wood @Rocheydub 

[Summer Snow]

2 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Could we get westwards correction, is has that ship sailed? 

 

Probably sailed with the short timeframe involved....could back a little further West,  seen as a few days ago this precipitation was meant to be out in the north sea .....but unlikely enough for this island, possibly Antrim and Down if it does back further West..  .....longer term firming up on a cold to very cold  spell kicking off early next week .....confidence growing now....especially as anomaly charts back up the operationals showing the Greenland blocking ......all good 

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Could we get westwards correction, is has that ship sailed? 

 

I've been watching that front get moved back West with each run but I think we're going to be about 100 miles the wrong side.

 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

The latest update from Judah Cohen...this guy knows his stuff!

For the next two weeks ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies near Greenland will anchor troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Europe coupled with normal to below normal temperatures for much of Europe but especially Northern Europe including the United Kingdom (UK).  In addition, the atmosphere is becoming stacked (the stratosphere and troposphere are aligned) so that the main center of the stratospheric polar vortex (PV) between the Urals and Scandinavia will help to anchor a strong negative height center in the mid-troposphere in the same region below.  

Get off that fence @mountain shadow and get 2 tonnes more wood @Rocheydub 

Until we have cross model agreement at t+120 I'm still on the fence.

At the moment I'm three quarters of the way over to cold but my gentleman's vegetables are caught on the wire.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I see mention of a west based -nao again,  is this really such a bad thing, especially for us?

[Weegaz]

27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I've been watching that front get moved back West with each run but I think we're going to be about 100 miles the wrong side.

 

Some where will be getting a pasting from it.

[BIG LAD]

Nice drop in temperature from the mild yesterday of 9.1c to 0.4c this morning after the front cleared south. Model thread has been electric this last while and will be serious squeaky bum time next few days I feel.

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

I see mention of a west based -nao again,  is this really such a bad thing, especially for us?

If a west based -nao were to set up, as we're further West then we could actually benefit incredibly well if we are in the perfect landing zone of bitter cold piling in from the North coming up against the milder moisture laden air running into the colder air from the South. But if it's too far West then all would lose out.

I personally think it will be a more neutral -nao so we should be fine.

[mountain shadow]

Yuck. 24 hours rain from 23:00 tonight. Lets hope this next time wee see these warnings it's for Snow!

Edited January 12, 2021 by mountain shadow

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yuck. 24 hours rain from 23:00 tonight. Lets hope this next time wee see these warnings it's for Snow!

I was under that warning yesterday, thankfully it has moved more Easterly, for me that is

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Word has got out in the bird community, I now have lesser redpolls, chaffinches, blackbirds and tree sparrows joining the linnets, goldfinches and tits at the feeders,  notable that there are no greenfinch, is their population in decline ☹

[Summer Snow]

Quite a temperature range today....parts of the North East only  1 and 2 degrees C at 1.30pm while temps are between 11 and 12 degrees C in Cork and Kerry 

[BIG LAD]

2 hours ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Word has got out in the bird community, I now have lesser redpolls, chaffinches, blackbirds and tree sparrows joining the linnets, goldfinches and tits at the feeders,  notable that there are no greenfinch, is their population in decline ☹

I've never seen a greenfinch in my garden. Would love to see one. Loads of chaffinches, a couple of goldfinch. I see a dunnock and a wren regular but they won't come to the feeders.

[BIG LAD]

Max today of 3.2c and currently 2.2c. colder than forecast.