Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[ronan]

17 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Out walking the dog earlier, thats a raw aul day, anyway the countryfile weather forecast still holds some interest for Thursday and Friday 

I have every bit of faith that Thursday and Friday will be snowy

[Bricriu]

When it comes to having a potentially significant snowfall I am always wary about what can go wrong. The pros seem confident enough though.

 

[Cavehill Snow]

3 hours ago, gman144 said:

Would it be fair to say models have been struggling for some time? Look at difference in weather apps met office and BBC weekly forecast. All must use different models and have differing reads. 

I noticed this also. I know Met Eireaan use ECM for their app. I thought BBC did also through their weather services provuder the  UK Met. But the BBC have changed their weather services provider, so maybe they use something else or a mix of models.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Cavehill Snow

[Cavehill Snow]

4 hours ago, booferking said:

2013 was extreme but this this cold pool dislodges itself from the main Siberian vortex and a massive area of the cold pool marches towards us never in my day have i seen this.

My memory isn't always the best but i think there were two snowy outbreaks up north in early 2013. One event caused huge snow fall totals - from memory it was a diving low directed south instead of east by a slack wedge of heights over Iceland - not sure what the pattern was out over Europe. The snow was not forecast (very much a now event at the time) but the 850s weren't spectacular. I'm only at 50ft asl and had about 18 hrs heavy precipitation of wet snow resulting in about 2 inches of slushy snow. About 2 miles from me at 200 ft asl had many feet of snow drifting in the high winds - true blizzard like conditions. Painful to be so close but yet so far. 

As well as worrying that the event at the end of the week may not happen, i would have a worry about the possible exceptional cold next week. The 2018 Beast from East ended much earlier than anticipated because the easterly pattern was so strong that a small low in the freezing flow over Portugal was pushed into the warm Atlantic and deepened rapidly because of the huge temperature differential. It created its own anti-clockwise circulation (creating a westerly wind for us) which cut off the easterly winds for a large part of western Europe. 

The projected cold for next week is even colder than 2018, so if it were to happen, hopefully shortwaves don't spoil the party again.

[Weegaz]

5 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

My memory isn't always the best but i think there were two snowy outbreaks up north in early 2013. One event caused huge snow fall totals - from memory it was a diving low directed south instead of east by a slack wedge of heights over Iceland - not sure what the pattern was out over Europe. The snow was not forecast (very much a now event at the time) but the 850s weren't spectacular. I'm only at 50ft asl and had about 18 hrs heavy precipitation of wet snow resulting in about 2 inches of slushy snow. About 2 miles from me at 200 ft asl had many feet of snow drifting in the high winds - true blizzard like conditions. Painful to be so close but yet so far. 

As well as worrying that the event at the end of the week may not happen, i would have a worry about the possible exceptional cold next week. The 2018 Beast from East ended much earlier than anticipated because the easterly pattern was so strong that a small low in the freezing flow over Portugal was pushed into the warm Atlantic and deepened rapidly because of the huge temperature differential. It created its own anti-clockwise circulation (creating a westerly wind for us) which cut off the easterly winds for a large part of western Europe. 

The projected cold for next week is even colder than 2018, so if it were to happen, hopefully shortwaves don't spoil the party again.

March 2013, a farmer friend was digging out the Ligonel road outside north Belfast over the mountain with a loading shovel and cars where buried in it, serious amount of snow fell, divis and black mountain got a pasting

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Just now, Weegaz said:

March 2013, a farmer friend was digging out the Ligonel road outside north Belfast over the mountain with a loading shovel and cars where buried in it, serious amount of snow fell, divis and black mountain got a pasting

I remember 2013 for us in the west being green and driving into Belfast and everything white, from memory @The Weather Watcher and folks along the East got pasted and we sat all jealous in the west

[ronan]

102 hours out now and GFS still showing a good snow event. How many runs is that now that has showed this. I'll start getting excited if this is still showing by tomorrow's 12z runs. 

[Rocheydub]

Dewpoint -4, air temp 2.1 at 2 mtrs. Humidity at 61%. Very brisk easterly now. Lots of cloud but zero pep in the streamers. Not an inkling of anything being stirred up in the Irish Sea.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Rocheydub

[Northwest NI]

25 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Dewpoint -4, air temp 2.1 at 2 mtrs. Humidity at 61%. Very brisk easterly now. Lots of cloud but zero pep in the streamers. Not an inkling of anything being stirred up in the Irish Sea.

County Down seems to be the only spot getting any snow from what I can see.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Northwest NI

[booferking]

Snow depths till Tuesday night from the easterly. Has the Irish sea disappeared 

[Northwest NI]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Snow depths till Tuesday night from the easterly. Has the Irish sea disappeared 

Pretty disappointing that really. Though it’s only a projection.

[Rocheydub]

It's called the "Dublin Snow Shield" for the newcomers in here! 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Northwest NI said:

Pretty disappointing that really. Though it’s only a projection.

It sure is but cant see anymore than a few cm for favoured spots thought Dublin would be seeing more activity than what radar shows.

[mountain shadow]

26 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

County Down seems to be the only spot getting any snow from what I can see.

It might look like snow on the radar but it ain't reaching the ground.

Just the odd bit of graupel.

[The Weather Watcher]

GFS 00Z has the front Thursday/Friday stalling over NI and fizzling out, then another front Monday 15th, again not pushing East, nor the milder air winning out. We then get thrown back into an Easterly for a few days before a Northerly plunge lol.

[ronan]

1 hour ago, The Weather Watcher said:

GFS 00Z has the front Thursday/Friday stalling over NI and fizzling out, then another front Monday 15th, again not pushing East, nor the milder air winning out. We then get thrown back into an Easterly for a few days before a Northerly plunge lol.

So if this all goes the way the GFS is showing we could end up with quite  a bit of snow on the ground which could stick around for for a while. GFS has been very consistent with Thursdays front. 

[Cavehill Snow]

The armageddon type cold for next week seems to have melted to slightly below average. Still no agreement on the detail for the snow event this Thurs / Fri across models, apps & forecasters.

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, Donegal said:

From a imby perspective I'm not overly confident on a great amount of snow falling here Thursday/Friday. Break up/become light and patchy before reaching here, if at all, is a worry.

Your right to be worried Ecm shows this breaking up before it reaches the north now same old story for here.

[BIG LAD]

A few flurries here this morning. Can see bits of snow on cars and on frozen puddles. Temp -0.3c. bitterly cold out but great drying weather.

[mountain shadow]

42 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Had that worry yesterday. Still, too early to know yet. Hopefully an improvement come evening. 

It really doesn't look like any snow will reach Ulster now at the end of the week. Bad news for us, but great news for Munster, Leinster and Connaught counties. In fact Central Ireland could be buried with heavy snow.

At least it will be dry.

Edited February 8, 2021 by mountain shadow

[Ever Hopeful]

Which model is usually most reliable? Every weather app seems to be showing different things - but most still seem to be forecasting snow for the weekend in Ulster? 

[mountain shadow]

29 minutes ago, Ever Hopeful said:

Which model is usually most reliable? Every weather app seems to be showing different things - but most still seem to be forecasting snow for the weekend in Ulster? 

Out to day 10 the ECM. Out to day 6/7, the UKMO/ECM mix.

Both the ECM and UKMO show the front stalling before it reached Ulster. Can still change of course.

 

[Sparky72]

Any thoughts that the forecast might move the front further north again before Thursday? or could it get moved further south again?. Or is it likely that it’s pretty accurate at this stage?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

8 minutes ago, Sparky72 said:

Any thoughts that the forecast might move the front further north again before Thursday? or could it get moved further south again?. Or is it likely that it’s pretty accurate at this stage?

Well we seen a couple of weeks ago where a front that wasn't supposed to get as far as our direction made it on up here, and it wasn't forecast to do so, even from the day before, will probably come down to stick your head out the window casting!

[ronan]

It's a tough call but I am hopeful for Thursday. Been out and about all morning at work and we have had a few showers of Graupel even with nothing showing on the radar. It's proper bitter cold to.