Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[O'Maille80]

3 hours ago, Summer Snow said:

Yes based on current charts it breaks down quickly to rain around Thursday .....however these lows could slide in to the block closer to the time and give us a nice blizzard  (8 days away so lots of chopping and changing to come)....hopefully plenty of snow between Sunday and Wednesday before that.....charts are all over the the place for later next week. UKMO is very different to ECM for example...0z GFS kept the cold going in to the following week with sliders whereas latest run quickly breaks down the cold spell next week.....We will have a better idea come Saturday or Sunday how any breakdown occurs and whether it is snowy or a brief snow to rain event   

The Met Eireann long range isn't without further promise later into February into early March either. 

 

 

 

MONTHLY FORECAST, ISSUED TUESDAY 02 FEBRUARY 2021

  Week 1 (Friday 05 February to Thursday 11 February)

 A strong signal for low pressure dominant to the south and high pressure to the north, meaning Ireland will lie in a mainly easterly airflow. This will lead to below average temperatures for the week. Precipitation will likely be well below average for much of the country though showery conditions will feed into northeastern and eastern coastal counties, with above average precipitations amounts there. With the strong easterly flow, wind-chill will be a big factor for this week, with the potential for winds to impact eastern coasts. Some wintry precipitation is likely, especially in the north and east. Widespread frosts at night, with hazardous conditions where ice forms.

 

Week 2 (Friday 12 February to Thursday 18 February)

 Low pressure in mid-Atlantic will likely extend its influence over Ireland with a mainly southwesterly airflow. This will mark a change from the previous week with temperatures recovering to more normal levels. Precipitation levels will increase to above normal for much of the country. Wind and rainfall are the main potential hazards in this setup.

 

Week 3 (Friday 19 February to Thursday 25 February)

 

High pressure to the north looks set to be the dominate feature for the week. This would lead to mainly settled conditions, much drier than average with temperatures around normal.There is a risk of some frosty nights with calm conditions. Mist and fog are possible hazards.

 

Week 4 (Friday 26 February to Thursday 04 March)

 

The high pressure is indicated to decline northwards, leading to a northeasterly airflow developing over Ireland. This would likely lead to colder than average temperatures but still predominately drier than average for much of the country with perhaps showers feeding into the northeast and east. Possible hazards are wintry flurries in the northeast and east, frosty nights for much of the country.

[Summer Snow]

11 hours ago, Summer Snow said:

Yes based on current charts it breaks down quickly to rain around Thursday .....however these lows could slide in to the block closer to the time and give us a nice blizzard  (8 days away so lots of chopping and changing to come)....hopefully plenty of snow between Sunday and Wednesday before that.....charts are all over the the place for later next week. UKMO is very different to ECM for example...0z GFS kept the cold going in to the following week with sliders whereas latest run quickly breaks down the cold spell next week.....We will have a better idea come Saturday or Sunday how any breakdown occurs and whether it is snowy or a brief snow to rain event   

Models this morning leaning towards a much snowier attack from the Atlantic mid next week bringing Ireland very much in to the game .....and at this range I expect models are still overplaying the extent of milder air incursions......looks a dryish easterly up to that point though for us,  but likely some disturbances will show up in the flow earlier in the week than is currently shown.... great watching all this unfold   

Edited February 4, 2021 by Summer Snow

[Sperrin]

Just to back up your point Summer Snow...

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Goes into MT to see see what is going on, reads posts about cms of snow for Surrey and M4 corridor, steps out again, think I will stick to here and read the possible scenarios from the knowledgeable posters we have, thanks for all the updates folks

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Goes into MT to see see what is going on, reads posts about cms of snow for Surrey and M4 corridor, steps out again, think I will stick to here and read the possible scenarios from the knowledgeable posters we have, thanks for all the updates folks

The MT thread will improve once the snow starts and they move off to regionals.

As Summer Snow mentions above, better prospects for snow in Ireland into next week but still all to play for.

[mountain shadow]

As the colder air comes into range a lot more showery activity is being picked up in the Irish Sea.

This is Monday 

and Tuesday

[mountain shadow]

And then as the Atlantic moves in..

Edited February 4, 2021 by mountain shadow

[The Weather Watcher]

Yes, to add to MS's posts. Don't be disheartened by the lack of precipitation showing on BBC/Meto updates at the moment, it is always like this in an Easterly, and they literally don't update it until precipitation is showing on radar. Shower activity can pop up out of the blue once those deeper 850hpa temperatures are over the Irish sea. It was only recently we seen an example of this with 850's around only -7. It's going to be a radar watch from Sunday night onwards.

[SnowJon]

So it begins .... first weather warning out for the eastern half of Norn Iron on Monday:
 

Quote

With the more persistent snow from Sunday in the south-east pulling away, the UK is expected to be affected by a cold, easterly wind, with snow showers. These will develop over sea areas and be blown inland, with some places possibly seeing quite frequent although mainly light showers. Some places however will miss these altogether. Where they do occur, 1-4 cm of additional snow is most probable for the majority of areas, perhaps 3-7 cm over higher ground exposed to the east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-02-08&id=ce81df33-8c42-42f3-bb88-880fd65ad316

[bobbarley]

I like your optimism guys, just not feeling it though. Think I’ll need to keep out of the thread next week, I think the jealously will kill me!

[na52]

Yea I really don't mind others getting bucket loads of snow it's just the way it is ....but what I hate about them easterlys is that it picks up the snow from my waters and tosses it out to sea 

[Sparky72]

31 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

I like your optimism guys, just not feeling it though. Think I’ll need to keep out of the thread next week, I think the jealously will kill me!

Im with you on this one. The jealousy might just send me mad!! I can feel it creeping up on me each time I look in on here!!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

38 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

I like your optimism guys, just not feeling it though. Think I’ll need to keep out of the thread next week, I think the jealously will kill me!

Yup I feel ya bro ☹

[Summer Snow]

Don't write this spell off just yet guys......surprises will pop up mark my words......this is not your normal Scandi high type easterly, it is a very unusual set up and models will continue to pick up new developments over coming days......it is fascinating watching this all unfold and how the models are dealing with this rare synoptic situation.....already today there are upgrades in terms of depth of cold and longetivity of upcoming spell.....expect many more changes before the spell even kicks off in earnest on Sunday.....some of Irelands best blizzards have come from unusual set ups such as this. It looks like the Atlantic is going to try get in at some stage next week and depending on the angle of attack and orientation of high pressure to our north, we could see a quick breakdown or a very snow covered landcsape with cold digging in.....all to play for and as things stand we are in with a very good chance of something really good.....    

[Northwest NI]

10 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

Don't write this spell off just yet guys......surprises will pop up mark my words......this is not your normal Scandi high type easterly, it is a very unusual set up and models will continue to pick up new developments over coming days......it is fascinating watching this all unfold and how the models are dealing with this rare synoptic situation.....already today there are upgrades in terms of depth of cold and longetivity of upcoming spell.....expect many more changes before the spell even kicks off in earnest on Sunday.....some of Irelands best blizzards have come from unusual set ups such as this. It looks like the Atlantic is going to try get in at some stage next week and depending on the angle of attack and orientation of high pressure to our north, we could see a quick breakdown or a very snow covered landcsape with cold digging in.....all to play for and as things stand we are in with a very good chance of something really good.....    

The one thing I regret about getting involved in a weather forum is that there is almost too much info. I already know, mostly, now how long a spell is going to last and pretty much when it will end - before it’s even arrived.  I should probably log off once a Cold/Hot  spell is down to T24 and just enjoy it in an “ignorance is bliss” way like before

Not a dig at you Summer Snow, I’m just thinking aloud. 

[Summer Snow]

53 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

The one thing I regret about getting involved in a weather forum is that there is almost too much info. I already know, mostly, now how long a spell is going to last and pretty much when it will end - before it’s even arrived.  I should probably log off once a Cold/Hot  spell is down to T24 and just enjoy it in an “ignorance is bliss” way like before

Not a dig at you Summer Snow, I’m just thinking aloud. 

I get ya....

I remember the times when ME would forecast 2 or 3 days ahead - even in the mildest winters you were waiting for a change at short notice ......although in this case I  am unsure when upcoming cold spell will end....yesterday it looked like Thursday.....now not so sure... if that low Thursday slides we could be in a prolonged freeze.... 

[gman144]

Big problem I feel in MT is the 4 a day outputs which no matter how often people are told to go eg 6z v 6z they compare to last run. This has moods going up and down regularly. Now someone tell me Antrim snow shield will be broken for 2nd time next week, you can use any output to prove your point lol

[Summer Snow]

10 degrees here today.   Not expecting to see that for a while ....also looking at latest UK Met update....obviously they only cover NI, but reading between the lines, I am doubting if those Atlantic fronts make much progress next week. They could end up in France ha

[Corkion]

will southern ireland be in for any snow

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

26 minutes ago, Corkion said:

will southern ireland be in for any snow

Fingers crossed mate, hard to know for Cork though!

[Weegaz]

Donegal Weather Channel providing more great graphics, great posts in their Facebook page, give it a follow if you haven’t already.

I haven’t been on the MOD thread in a few weeks now, in here has kept me up to date with potential weather events, great reading the past few weeks guys, keep it up and we’ll hopefully get rewarded with snow next week 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

21 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Donegal Weather Channel providing more great graphics, great posts in their Facebook page, give it a follow if you haven’t already.

I haven’t been on the MOD thread in a few weeks now, in here has kept me up to date with potential weather events, great reading the past few weeks guys, keep it up and we’ll hopefully get rewarded with snow next week 

Aye follow them on FB weegaz, not sure about some of their warnings bit a good wee page to follow 

[Summer Snow]

2 hours ago, Corkion said:

will southern ireland be in for any snow

Depends on wind direction.....showers could drift on to east cork coast and hit Cork city early next week. .....at this stage showers do not look to be as heavy or as widepsread as Beast in 2018 so expectations should be kept lower....north Cork likely dryer than South Cork as showers run along the coast 

Thursday could bring significant snow to Cork if system coming from West slides against the block to our north....if it does not come in at favourable angle though likely brief period of snow then rain... ..too early to call that one yet ....a week is a long time in weather and it may not even impact Ireland and could steer to our South.....

Edit ....I assumed you are in Cork going by your title ha 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Summer Snow

[Corkion]

ya east cork thanks 

[bobbarley]

My heads fried, just spent 30 minutes in the model thread. Cherry picked a couple of slides from it for eye candy. Still nothing clear for the end of next week though!