Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[na52]

Had to check I was in the right thread , it is indeed snowing outside , not sticking mind but a wee suprise alrighty

[ronan]

Snowing away but no chance of it lying unless it gets alot heavier. Coleraine Mountain getting it good! 

Edited February 2, 2021 by ronan

[Baltic Regions]

36 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Ghosts mate, get the wall exorcised 

Max Von Sydow has nothing on me. Been yelling "The power of Christ compels you" for an hour now. 

[snowydogh]

Snowing heavy here in Mallusk. There must have been lying snow during the night but rain came and kinda melted it but it’s back to big heavy snow again. The earlier rain has made the ground mushy wet so this snow isn’t lying now .. typical 

[mountain shadow]

It's a good laugh in the main Model thread with the South east contingent wailing about poor GFS runs.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's a good laugh in the main Model thread with the South east contingent wailing about poor GFS runs.

This the problem I have with the MT, and if anyone points out that a model might be good for areas other than SE England then it promptly followed by calls oh but we never get snow which are then well liked, take it to your regional thread and moan awy there.  

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Anyway rant over, should I get excited about this Easterly yet?

[mountain shadow]

Just now, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Anyway rant over, should I get excited about this Easterly yet?

At this point, No.

We need to wait and see how it plays.

If the cold gets embedded, then we wait to see if we can benefit from the Atlantic pushing against it, but not winning out.

[Northwest NI]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

It's a good laugh in the main Model thread with the South east contingent wailing about poor GFS runs.

Ah the Southeast.

They get the best weather indisputably from March to October EVERY year but still want the best in winter too!

[booferking]

So close to low laying snow last night lough fea images below.

[ronan]

Really close to a good event for all. There is a good covering on the hills around Derry especially towards Donegal. Snowline probably around 100/120m. 

[O'Maille80]

Met Eireann further outlook (Sunday onwards) looks promising: 

Further Outlook: Turning colder with northeast to east winds feeding in wintry showers at times. Hard ground frosts can be expected at night.

 

[Summer Snow]

17 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Met Eireann further outlook (Sunday onwards) looks promising: 

Further Outlook: Turning colder with northeast to east winds feeding in wintry showers at times. Hard ground frosts can be expected at night.

 

Would expect there may also be snow risk on Friday and Sat as the trough drops South to introduce the cold easterly winds. As this occurs uppers are circa - 5 over Ireland so any precipitation would be of wintry nature before the colder air ibvades for Sunday with this all depending on shape and direction of the trough pulling away.....snow showers should then become more widespread during Sunday and early next week but again models vary with some signalling showers only peppering east coast, or alternatively a front close to south coast giving outbreaks of snow in South and dryer further north....so lot to be resolved for Sunday and next week yet......probably all leading to some kind of battleground snowfall later next week which could see the cold spell breaking down eventually....but always the chance that the cold air wins out and fronts retreat South again prolonging the cold......all to play for as long as most models are correct and GFS is not leading the way, in which case a very brief cold snap would occur before turning milder early next week.... GFS does seem on its own here though and goes against UK Met longer range thinking.....so for now I would  go with the longer cold spell followed by battleground scenario  

[BIG LAD]

What a miserable day. 3.5c with constant rain. Id say the sperrins and Antrim hills got a good dumping. 

[booferking]

If only lough neagh acted like the great lakes in the states when a easterly set in ft of lake effect snow lol.

I do wonder if this has ever happened a 4/5 day easterly like the last ECM could put it to the test uppers -8 to -10.

Edited February 2, 2021 by booferking

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Just had a look at lake effect snow. Generally the fetch needs to be at least 100km/62miles. Lough Neagh is only 15km wide, 30km long.

Cheers have you a link to that info might start the widening and lengthening process the night with a few diggers

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Cheers have you a link to that info might start the widening and lengthening process the night with a few diggers

With all the dredging Creagh concrete do you won't have far to dig

[gman144]

The South English often talk about Thames streamers would this be a similar effect. Another question would be could something form of the Irish Sea?

 

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, gman144 said:

The South English often talk about Thames streamers would this be a similar effect. Another question would be could something form of the Irish Sea?

 

Yea the north sea acts acts as the lake effect for them.

[gman144]

Are we going to get a fall or 2 of snow or as in BBC weekly it stays dry

[na52]

13 minutes ago, gman144 said:

The South English often talk about Thames streamers would this be a similar effect. Another question would be could something form of the Irish Sea?

 

Yea they also get a Cheshire streamer or a Pembroke dangler off of the Irish sea .....never seen a Foyle footer but I live in hope

[mountain shadow]

46 minutes ago, gman144 said:

The South English often talk about Thames streamers would this be a similar effect. Another question would be could something form of the Irish Sea?

 

Yes. If the fetch is long enough we get streamers too.

Indeed, a remember the East coast getting 36 hours of moderate snowfall but it didn't go further than Hillsborough. 

[The Weather Watcher]

I urge caution on the cold outputs for the weekend and into next week. The spread in ensembles from 72 hours is quite subsantial in regards to 850hpa temperatures with a 7/8c difference from highest to lowest (-2 to -10c). The spread gets greater from then on, although the highest temp gets colder, in fact, right down to -7c or less for the whole Island at one point. 

No doubt it is going to get colder, it's just how cold, how long for and what kind of precipitation or snow chances can we expect that is up for debate. 

The low causing all the fuss either drops South and East and we get the very cold Easterly with convective chances and frontal events from the SW. The other is a low that loiters around the UK bringing cold uppers (cold enough for snow) but with frontal events more prominent for all areas, albeit with the risk of mixed milder uppers and a quicker breakdown of the spell. I think we are still 48 hours away before we can be sure, as that is where the divergence in the model ensembles seems to begin. 

 

[Rocheydub]

I know where you are coming from @The Weather Watcher and I've been burned so many times before, but the convergence of the ops on most (if not all) the main NWP's convince me that we are 80% there on the cusp of my log buying intelligence!! Ensembles weren't anywhere near to this convincing 2 days ago either. In fact, they were wildly un-optimistic about the low dropping away SE.

As always, time will tell. I will tell my kids on Thursday if this is still going smoothly!

[Rocheydub]

All smooth and steady on the 18z GFS.

If we're still on target tomorrow after the 12z's I will tell the kids. Feic it lads, the lockdown needs some happiness attached!