Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, gman144 said:

Matt Hugo gives an explanation on twitter as to where models have went wrong. I think he feels deep cold lurks???

It's easy to say where it went wrong, but never easy to forecast it. 

Deep cold has been lurking since the start of December.

[na52]

Even if west based NAO is the worst case scenario it works out well for @Rocheydub and his one ton of blocks as the lows roll up into the cold

Edited January 13, 2021 by na52

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

16 minutes ago, na52 said:

Even if west based NAO is the worst case scenario it works out well for @Rocheydub and his one ton of blocks as the lows roll up into the cold

Yeah I am hoping we are in the prime position for a West based -nao if that's the way it goes

[mountain shadow]

Annnndd it's back on again and no west based -NAO

[Summer Snow]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Annnndd it's back on again and no west based -NAO

Model wobble this morning I think....have seen it many times. GFS very good? GEM very good and UKMO and ICON an improvement... ..I expect upgrades again over next few runs... Hopefully starting with ECM tonight... ...not sure why it happens, but in build up to a cold spell there is usually one day when models all flip together and then slowly come back in line.... 

[booferking]

4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

It's easy to say where it went wrong, but never easy to forecast it. 

Deep cold has been lurking since the start of December.

This is so true lurking around thats all it has done. Where know further forward than mid/end December cold uppers mixing out again its a real struggle looks cold an wet on ECM.

[Summer Snow]

1 hour ago, Donegal said:

Close but no cigar sums it up with deep cold this Winter. IMO models are a mess and we can't be sure what happen next week with any confidence as it stands. By Friday we should have a better idea.

Even by Friday we will only have a better idea what will happen early next week.....anything more than 3 or 4 days ahead at present is liable to big changes in the model output....and that is likely to continue for a while ......I think the general pattern is set with high pressure to northwest and over the poles but how low pressure systems interact in our vicinity and beyond as well as impacts of further downwellig etc will determine if we get cool, cold or very cold .....or rain or snow ....with models flip flopping all over the place 

[Sparky72]

Nothing very exciting happening looking ahead this morning. Outlook..... cool and a bit meh!

[mountain shadow]

Looks like we're going back to where we were during Christmas with slight Greenland heights allowing a Northerly airflow but the upper air remaining marginal with another hit and miss situation.

The difference this time is we will have low pressure trying to push in from the South and where the air masses meet, decent snowfall could occur with evaporate cooling overriding the relatively poor uppers situation.

Still room for upgrades as the SSW continues to play havoc with the output.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks like we're going back to where we were during Christmas with slight Greenland heights allowing a Northerly airflow but the upper air remaining marginal with another hit and miss situation.

The difference this time is we will have low pressure trying to push in from the South and where the air masses meet, decent snowfall could occur with evaporate cooling overriding the relatively poor uppers situation.

Still room for upgrades as the SSW continues to play havoc with the output.

Maybe we will be on the right side of any marginal situations this time round, as you say the SSW is playing havoc on a way forward,  hopefully the way forward when it comes to pass is a snowy one

[BIG LAD]

Would the recent 2 week cold spell have lowered the sst's? Make things less marginal from the north?

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, BIG LAD said:

Would the recent 2 week cold spell have lowered the sst's? Make things less marginal from the north?

Just had a look at the anomaly. Slightly better than last month. Anomalies down a wee bit.

[sundog]

Does look like we are going back next week to similar temps we had over the xmas period with more cold rain .

[booferking]

Plenty of snow across the water we've missed every slider going or sorry rephrase that again been direct hits but all rain when's it are turn?

[Summer Snow]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

Does look like we are going back next week to similar temps we had over the xmas period with more cold rain .

 

52 minutes ago, booferking said:

Plenty of snow across the water we've missed every slider going or sorry rephrase that again been direct hits but all rain when's it are turn?

Frustrating alright....having said that we had a recent 2 week cold spell... snow along with frost and ice was in the forecast most of those days...we were unlucky in that when conditions were marginal we had a lot of precipitation of mainly sleet and rain, and when it was cold enough for snow the precipitation was often light and scattered.....still, even in the southeast, I have had falling snow on 3 days since late December .... a dusting on one of those days and a light covering on another....as well as numerous frosts and ice, even feezing fog......conditions will continue to get less marginal with regards to sea temps and Europe/ Scandinavia will be colder this time round.....even the pros in UK Met believe the models are under estimating the upcoming cold spell and logetivity......yesterday models were leaning towards a mild South westerly most of next week....they now see a colder northerly setting in late Tuesday onwards......and in the main keep it cold out to day 10 and beyond to varying degrees.....I really expect more upgrades to come once the cold sets in and models get a handle on positioning of arctic blocks etc....plenty of reasons to be positive....the snow that fell in parts of midlands of England today should have fallen out in the north sea and Holland according to models only a few days ago.... ..I think that says it all..... many changes to come and we are in a much better position for many years for those changes to be favourable for us.....let's get the cold in early next week and I am sure models at that stage will look very different to what they are showing now for later next week....

Edited January 14, 2021 by Summer Snow

[Summer Snow]

Amd just like that....Much colder uppers on GFS 18z as well as control run & Para.....Op goes off on one after day 10 whereas control keeps the cold in place .... but again goes to show that a very cold northerly and snow especially for those further north cettainly cannot be ruled out  as we go through next week......day 10 and beyond not worth worrying about at this stage ......lets get the cold in place first .....

[ronan]

26 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

Amd just like that....Much colder uppers on GFS 18z as well as control run & Para.....Op goes off on one after day 10 whereas control keeps the cold in place .... but again goes to show that a very cold northerly and snow especially for those further north cettainly cannot be ruled out  as we go through next week......day 10 and beyond not worth worrying about at this stage ......lets get the cold in place first .....

Day 2 not worth looking at to be honest What a roller-coaster this is all turning out to be but as you say get the cold in place then who knows where this is all going. Plenty of ups and downs to come over the weekend but I have a good feeling that we will get our cold and snow soon enough. 

[mountain shadow]

So, we can finally say for certain that it will turn colder on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with NW to N winds.

Will it be rain, sleet or snow?

Who knows.

[ronan]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, we can finally say for certain that it will turn colder on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with NW to N winds.

Will it be rain, sleet or snow?

Who knows.

Snow all the way. Have faith. Lol. Better looking charts this morning MS. The roller-coaster continues 

[O'Maille80]

Looks like northern counties are looking best placed for next week. I'm a bit underwhelmed at the output but hopefully time for things to change.

[mountain shadow]

46 minutes ago, ronan said:

Snow all the way. Have faith. Lol. Better looking charts this morning MS. The roller-coaster continues 

It certainly won't be snow all the way,  but hopefully less marginal than last month.

[ronan]

Yeah last month was so frustrating. We should be in a better position as to how things will pan out by Sunday. 

[gary1365]

A decent frost here this morning. I woke at 4:45 to get a training session in on the bike before the wife went to work and it was like a bottle outside. Straight back to bed don't need a repeat of the fall last week. I'm starting to get to old to bounce without any damage 

[ronan]

A cracking sunrise this morning 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

22 minutes ago, ronan said:

A cracking sunrise this morning 

Aye noticed the same here this morning Ronan, decent wee frost earlier, all away now though