Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[101_North]

Slow and steady here but getting a little heavier! Temp down to -0.3c. An inch so far this evening which isn't bad given how light it's been so far. 

[Daniel*]

Judging by radar UKV has done poorly it seems to be going the way of GFS more NE movement with NE England seeing most. You cannot discount this model seen it before. It does highlight even best of models get it wrong! 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Quite an exceptional upgrade from the UKV's output over the last 24 hours:

Some very impressive totals being flagged up, and with marginality becoming less of an issue further east with a bit of intensity the elevation differences might not be quite so strong (I'm still a bit wary of modification at the most exposed coasts when the winds get up but away from there).

It looks miles off I’m afraid.

[Benvironment]

0.8C and crunchy. Coldest it's been all day 

[WhiteXmas]

21 minutes ago, Ross B said:

 Could happen if the westward extent of the snow gets more organised as it should start moving south as the band pivots.  Well that's the theory/hope. 

 

[Hairy Celt]

Oops. Wet sleet now 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Eh? Load of nonsense.

UKV 18z run for 23:00

 

Current radar: 23:05

 

The good stuff was always arriving after midnight/early hours.

With respect you’re wrong you can easily tell it’s pulling away from Scotland. If I’m wrong hands up but I don’t think I am.

 

[Northern Strath]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

With respect you’re wrong you can easily tell it’s pulling away from Scotland. If I’m wrong hands up but I don’t think I am.

 

[Hawesy]

Evening all, nice to see the reports and some snow for a few coasties who typically don’t see much.

Drizzle and rain here this evening although the temperature has fallen from 3.2c at 6pm to 1.7c currently.

[JoeShmoe]

Have to say it’s great reading the NW and NE / York’s threads and seeing those guys get some good falls too, some great pics and videos ... even better reading them as snow is falling silently outside  the window !

[Polar Side]

18 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Slow and steady here but getting a little heavier! Temp down to -0.3c. An inch so far this evening which isn't bad given how light it's been so far. 

This is like a carbon copy of last night, even the snow intensity is similar.
Just hope the snow isn’t too wet in the morning again.

[101_North]

3 minutes ago, Polar Side said:

This is like a carbon copy of last night, even the snow intensity is similar.
Just hope the snow isn’t too wet in the morning again.

Yep. Bizarre 2 evenings running! Not the heaviest but if it stays like this could be a decent fall again

[Northern Strath]

Aye @Mr Frost 300m on the nose here. Had about 7cms through the day. All still, cold and quiet for now. Will see what the morning brings 

[JoeShmoe]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

With respect you’re wrong you can easily tell it’s pulling away from Scotland. If I’m wrong hands up but I don’t think I am.

 

With all due respect the forecast was always for the band to pivot back into south eastern Scotland as the low develops in the North Sea, hence the amber warning. There’s a few us won’t be sad if it ends up 50-100 miles further north though

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

With respect you’re wrong you can easily tell it’s pulling away from Scotland. If I’m wrong hands up but I don’t think I am.

 

Running the radar sequence, I can't see any 'pulling away'?  If you run the sequence back several hours and run it forward again, it actually shows the area of precip increasing across parts of Scotland. This morning's UKV 06Z chart for 11pm is almost identical to the current radar.

It also shows a pivot, with more snow moving back in to Scotland from the East.

[Sanserit]

Zilch, nada, zero...not even a drop of rain here so far. I’m away to bed in sheer disgust at the radar showing any potential sna moving further and further away from the north east. Only way we’ll get a decent dump is if it comes down from the north like the good old days of my childhood.

 

[Sunny Leith]

Yeah steady light snow been falling here for ages now, road, pavements, cars, back green etc all nicely covered. Millimetres rather than centimetres, but we'll see what happens from from here on. Other parts of the city must be doing well.

[metallikat34]

39 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Slow and steady here but getting a little heavier! Temp down to -0.3c. An inch so far this evening which isn't bad given how light it's been so far. 

Same here. Been light snow all night, but starting to pile up. Another 3-6 hours at this rate should squeeze out an inch or two more. 

[Big Innes Madori]

Aye, Ok then!

It turned tae Snaw here at aboot 9.30pm ish and there now looks to be a couple O' cms covering on all surfaces and still falling

Big Innes

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Running the radar sequence, I can't see any 'pulling away'?  If you run the sequence back several hours and run it forward again, it actually shows the area of precip increasing across parts of Scotland. This morning's UKV 06Z chart for 11pm is almost identical to the current radar.

It also shows a pivot, with more snow moving back in to Scotland from the East.

The main heavy stuff is, can you honestly see >20CM from this? Areas which will see worst will not be in SE Scotland. There will be some decent snow I’m sure 5-10cm for some? But these depths of 20-40cm teased ain’t happening I’m quite confident. 
 

the English is leaving before the pitchforks come out 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Daniel*

[edo]

aye same "snow" as here last night.... its more pellets than flakes leading to the lack of accumulation.....its like groundhog day

[101_North]

1 minute ago, edo said:

its like groundhog day

It really is mate even discounting the snow! I don't know what day it is most of the time anymore

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

But these depths of 20-40cm teased ain’t happening I’m quite confident. 

The UKV has real observations put in at the beginning of each run. I don't know exactly how it works with snowfall, but if you look at the beginning of the run (03Z in this case) it already has significant snow depth across those hills/glens/mountains etc. In this instance, it's not saying that those totals are beginning at zero...

Edited January 20, 2021 by Mapantz

[metallikat34]

29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

With respect you’re wrong you can easily tell it’s pulling away from Scotland. If I’m wrong hands up but I don’t think I am.

 

Don't pay so much attention to the current motion, but rather the expected motion of the bands from 12-6am. Remember, the last and strongest wave of low pressure hasn't fully formed yet. And I keep going back to just how "spun up" the atmosphere is around the British Isles right now. Look at this digging piece of energy north of Ireland, moving in a completely opposite direction as the storm and frontal system less than 50 miles to the east. 

The reach back or pivot will happen. But yeah, some of those crazy GFS totals aren't going to happen. 

[Cheggers]

A little late to the party, but wet snaw now falling here.