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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards


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Ladies and gentlemen you are not going to believe it. After a wait of almost 3 years... 😮  

I don't suppose I have anything to complain about this winter...      .      

I've waited years to get a picture of the house covered with snow.  Finally!  

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Is there going to be heavy snow and Arctic Air

    If we compare this with 1987 as a Beast from the East Year and what the Charts were like before. 

    1987 has a high into Southern England with in between in Scotland before it gets squashed and by day eight The Beast is most definilty strong. 

    archives-1987-1-4-0-0.thumb.png.4c6590643c86fc024144c302178549dd.pngarchives-1987-1-9-0-0.thumb.png.3f2709916517a0495b870efa52715a0b.png

    459211430_archives-1987-1-12-0-0(1).thumb.png.c767b05bbf01183657e8cd31ebdfcbc5.png

    Almost exactly the same at the moment predicted. 

    1368774572_gfs-0-6(1).thumb.png.bbdd28477eeefffbc24d3b90d1fb38f4.pnggfs-0-66.thumb.png.cf06fc6073958e34127d0dfa78fa759b.pnggfs-0-192.thumb.png.3d605d5792c4302e506294f301275fd9.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: 6 miles SE of Perth ( 40m asl )
  • Location: 6 miles SE of Perth ( 40m asl )
    4 minutes ago, Norrance said:

    Lovely frosty and sunny winters day here today.

    May start tomorrow evening here with a bit of wet snow or sleet but as the wind starts coming in off the sea I fear it will just be heavy cold rain for most of the time. Inland with only a little altitude (+100mtrs asl perhaps) could be a pretty good event especially just North of the central belt. Maybe a little higher further South?

    will have a good detail look at the models later when i do my Snow watch forecast. I see some snow falling in the central belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh, possibly a couple of cm i believe. Though the best risk is areas more towards Fife and areas to the N and W where 2-5cm could accumulate to near sea level inland, and up to around 15cm above 150-200m. Somewhere Like Auchterarder could see 5-10cm quite easily i believe. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, and lots of it
  • Location: Morningside, Edinburgh (98m ASL)
    1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

    Evening all

    3C here today, plenty of sunshine and frost/ice hanging on in the shade.
    Sadly all the snow has gone from the hills in the distance after the blowtorch/rain yesterday!

    5C5FCE2F-4700-49BF-8E6A-A283AF1E16E8.thumb.jpeg.664ec04d67aa432e6966b73ca32c6444.jpeg
     

    @CatchMyDrift @Kirkcaldy Weather great posts.

    Predicted state of play for 15:00 tomorrow - higher ground snowfall with god knows what to low levels. (rain/freezing rain/sleet? 😃

    Met Office/UKV

    29E32B77-FDE3-4138-81DF-62725FBB6B47.thumb.png.967e5270bd70c4697e2f261d62153fa0.png88CB3462-392E-4E17-8CFD-99395A938597.thumb.png.c856c4a751136a7f104ad2ef49095c15.png
     

    Fast forward to midnight and here is the (just for fun) lying snow depth chart.

    9BC73061-4B08-4F9C-8A48-8F275CEBABE4.thumb.png.6647d53716e7718f61d00b0a13544e91.png
     

    Issues for the West (other low level parts of Scotland) already discussed in previous posts and by others - few charts below for same timeframe.

    Thickness (dam)

    6C058424-4574-48DE-8DD4-20B38E1CC11B.thumb.png.cd17a02e284c47747adc70c6687afbed.png
     

    Dewpoint temperature (C)

    B9C473CB-5A53-4CA8-B8C0-E09A2BAC6D73.thumb.png.d152bf3c83f617477369e2f019dffda0.png
     

    Wet bulb freezing height (m)

    80346238-CD5C-48B3-B5D9-609715B1804A.thumb.png.8557694c722cd64c90ed017637e0d259.png
     

    850-1000hpa thickness (m)

    BD2C03FE-7005-4DEC-B42E-44634F95AC05.thumb.png.7406e068d552d755eb64a69e83b99fc2.png
     

    850HPA temp and sea level pressure

    18647E1F-98B6-41FA-ABC3-09B950605872.thumb.png.541eea885f6dc90204645c1f80c8a43b.png
     

    Temperature 

    062907AB-B395-42A2-B8E4-8180B8507178.thumb.png.6291aad3b8a57d9a8ee87b8fad0a8ae0.png


    It is such a marginal event for many - higher ground the better! 

    It would only take the slightest tweaks here and there to deliver significant snowfall to modest levels! Especially Perthshire, parts of Stirlingshire, Tayside, Fife, Borders and North Lanarkshire.

    North of the Central belt in general could do very well. 

    On the flip side it could be a total washout for everyone below 200 meters - no fun in discussing that in detail though! 😁

    We have already seen this Winter deliver decent depths of snowfall...that was not even forecast for many areas. 
    More of the same tomorrow/Thursday please! ☃️❄️🌨️

    Bring on the snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain! 😆

    All the best!

    Yuck on those 850 temps tomorrow afternoon!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)

    A Facebook memory reminds me I had a bit of thundersnow this time 4 years ago, and plenty snow for a snowman. 

    Nice and frosty at the moment and the car is reading -2. 

    Met office video forecast suggests snow restricted to the Highlands and Pennines only. Also looks much further east. Fax chart suggests it is further west. Confused? Yup?

    Still expect nothing but rain here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

    Definitely looks like rain in East Lothian! Maybe a few flakes mixed in .

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
    1 hour ago, metallikat34 said:

    Yuck on those 850 temps tomorrow afternoon!

    850 Shmifty...I know what you mean but the best snowfalls come from 850 temps which look way too high for snow. If it's not marginal it's not going to snow much 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Glasgow Southside 30m ASL.
    4 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

    Fully expect cold rain here too, any faking snow will be a nice winter bonus. Please no more freezing rain though!

    Meant falling snow. Don’t know how the fake that happened.

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    Posted
  • Location: 6 miles SE of Perth ( 40m asl )
  • Location: 6 miles SE of Perth ( 40m asl )
    2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    850 Shmifty...I know what you mean but the best snowfalls come from 850 temps which look way too high for snow. If it's not marginal it's not going to snow much 😀

    This reminds me off Storm Deirdre. I did manage some settling snow to near sea level inland at slightly worse parameters than tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
    37 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    850 Shmifty...I know what you mean but the best snowfalls come from 850 temps which look way too high for snow. If it's not marginal it's not going to snow much 😀

    Also there's the small matter of getting some of the damned stuff not to evaporate before landing, which is a recurring problem on anything westerly here.  (I'll not go into the -8C 850 temps usually needed and seeing were only supposed to get -1C....) It's not going to snow, with a bit of luck it won't rain either 😐

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

    I feel out of synch with everyone suddenly, having enjoyed a lovely snowy, sunny walk with camera this morning then been out in the frosty and very icy village this afternoon - yet all the talk is of tomorrow's potential! 

    Anyway, for the avoidance of prosecution, I went no more than 5 miles from home and all on foot.

    sheep.thumb.jpg.30be858d1f98283c6044beda5115c29f.jpg  1133178085_sheep3.thumb.jpg.f34577320a582cc13e999f407658a71c.jpg

     cow.thumb.jpg.35d1c8654622574586fade6936b2d822.jpg  I tried to get some more interesting pictures of cows but they weren't having it. Kept running away!  And as for the sheep, less said the better.

    hogweed.thumb.jpg.c15f4f17bb13423653a354bb7b6a4d1e.jpg 

    fields.thumb.jpg.c1158918edd1e0339b7a4ec803549f0c.jpg  992094275_snowytrees.thumb.jpg.24d175044af870b196e9f753391144c3.jpg

     

    Rain tomorrow night.

     

     

    Magnificent captures mate. Love it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    3 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

    As the other northies are reporting, a stunner up here today. -2c max. Hope tomo is a snow-show and not a sh*t-show for people 

    0EB17367-8515-47F1-988E-6F5BE445BFB6.thumb.jpeg.d16b376b73dddc800381542543758cba.jpeg

    24D2C766-066D-41D3-B4A1-73A43B37E28F.thumb.jpeg.1ddd6b68df4a3cac89aa4a69d6c26fd4.jpeg

     

    I will tell you what, not only is this thee best regional for balanced weather opinions and predictions, but from an optical viewpoint it is nothing short of spectacular.  Should maybe put this post in the Ramps thread 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    Quick bit of Anti Scottish scatter cushion in the mad house... apparently they want a wall to keep us out of there snaw feast.. 😂😂😂.. 

    By snaw feast im guessing they mean 2cm of slushy pish that would melt as soon as its looked at..😂😂😂

    Things starting to look good and the colder uppers look like they could be heading for us to start with and i would wven think that @Hawesy could have the measuring stick out..

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    @Mair Snaw any talk of measuring sticks and I'm Private Frasered so steady on 🤪

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
    1 minute ago, Mair Snaw said:

    Quick bit of Anti Scottish scatter cushion in the mad house... apparently they want a wall to keep us out of there snaw feast.. 😂😂😂.. 

    By snaw feast im guessing they mean 2cm of slushy pish that would melt as soon as its looked at..😂😂😂

    Things starting to look good and the colder uppers look like they could be heading for us to start with and i would wven think that @Hawesy could have the measuring stick out..

    you been drinking more than the 18z 🙂

    a promising run, continues to look good for short term marginal chances and less marginal from 20thish..... no longer at day 10 we are counting down but as corinthian has said (an excellent MT poster) if the fax is correct about how west the low corrects then all models are probably wrong about day 4.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m
    4 minutes ago, edo said:

    you been drinking more than the 18z 🙂

    a promising run, continues to look good for short term marginal chances and less marginal from 20thish..... no longer at day 10 we are counting down but as corinthian has said (an excellent MT poster) if the fax is correct about how west the low corrects then all models are probably wrong about day 4.

    Not touched a drop since the last time...👍👍

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