Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[scottishandy]

1 hour ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

@edo..... that is making me absolutely speechless! , i just wanna like faint. 

You do realise the depths are mm not cm? 

Snow is on here, currently at flakes per minute but it's a start.

Edited February 6, 2021 by scottishandy

[Glaswegianblizzard]

4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Some inspiration from the Netherlands...

 

I bet they don’t bother with marginal set ups.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Just now, scottishandy said:

You do realise the depths are mm not cm? 

yes i do know that Lol. Still 30-40cm of snow in many areas on that! 

[Penicuikblizzard]

30 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Not sure if this is a consolation or not, but I did dig up the EURO4 for the day before the red warning:

 

and the reality (well for the day after that, although most of the snow did fall on the red warning day further west from what I recall):

It wasn't too bad to be honest in distribution, but certainly underestimated depths and extent too (the map doesn't have depths for Cumbernauld for example which was completely buried).

 

 

The red warning day was a SSE flow I take it there must’ve been convergence troughs in the forth that day/night as even Edinburgh had a lot of snow ???

Maybe due to the uppers being lower during the bfte

[asjmcguire]

1 minute ago, scottishandy said:

You do realise the depths are mm not cm? 

I should hope so 

I want some snow, I don't want 2 metres of snow!

And I'm fairly certain there are places that don't want 30m of the stuff. Imagine the damage!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Blob, incoming:

UKV has a bit of a wider net for snow showers up to +54, still incredibly good for Fife and Perthshire but a few more showers heading on the southern stream too:

 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Just now, Penicuikblizzard said:

The red warning day was a SSE flow I take it there must’ve been convergence troughs in the forth that day/night as even Edinburgh had a lot of snow ???

Maybe due to the uppers being lower during the bfte

flow was actually ESE. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I bet they don’t bother with marginal set ups.

It's very boom or bust there from what my Dutch friend says, basically no hills of any note so you either get buried from something like this or just nothing at all for the winter

[Allyw12]

12 minutes ago, edo said:

 we might lose Tim to a heart attack

nearly had one myself looking at the charts tonight

[scottishandy]

Arpege worth seeing for the faint hearted.

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The red warning day was a SSE flow I take it there must’ve been convergence troughs in the forth that day/night as even Edinburgh had a lot of snow ???

Maybe due to the uppers being lower during the bfte

From what I recall there were a few troughs coming through, and the intensity was so strong that it didn't really matter about the topography so much:

- this is from 1.30pm on the 28th February

[Penicuikblizzard]

3 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

From what I recall there were a few troughs coming through, and the intensity was so strong that it didn't really matter about the topography so much:

- this is from 1.30pm on the 28th February

The forth estuary was certainly the sweet spot that day for sure

[Penicuikblizzard]

10 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Blob, incoming:

UKV has a bit of a wider net for snow showers up to +54, still incredibly good for Fife and Perthshire but a few more showers heading on the southern stream too:

 

Much better track

[Ruzzi]

38 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Not sure if this is a consolation or not, but I did dig up the EURO4 for the day before the red warning:

 

and the reality (well for the day after that, although most of the snow did fall on the red warning day further west from what I recall):

It wasn't too bad to be honest in distribution, but certainly underestimated depths and extent too (the map doesn't have depths for Cumbernauld for example which was completely buried).

 

 

It is all very intriguing to see how it lands now, obviously the exact same synoptic could lead to a totally different ground situation so there will absolutely be surprises that crop up, it's just where. 

And btw, that exact euro4 whilst looking a bit uninspiring for where I lived at the time (Allanton, just outside Shotts), lead to this... 

(about 14 inch level depth and drifts galore) 

 

 

[lorenzo]

A good few blobs and that soon to be convergence zone setting up like a firehose of snow..

[Allyw12]

8 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

yes i do know that Lol. Still 30-40cm of snow in many areas on that! 

@MAXcrazystorm @edo @TinyTim can you remember how much snow we got back in 2010 in perth?  I thought 20cm+ but I’m sure it was more than that

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, Allyw12 said:

@MAXcrazystorm @edo @TinyTim can you remember how much snow we got back in 2010 in perth?  I thought 20cm+ but I’m sure it was more than that

i got around 20cm i think to the SE of Perth, not as much as Fife and the central belt though....

[scottishandy]

1 minute ago, Allyw12 said:

@MAXcrazystorm @edo @TinyTim can you remember how much snow we got back in 2010 in perth?  I thought 20cm+ but I’m sure it was more than that

I got 46cm in Dunblane and I was under the impression that most of this had come over Perth on the way. ENErly? 

[TinyTim]

2 minutes ago, scottishandy said:

I got 46cm in Dunblane and I was under the impression that most of this had come over Perth on the way. ENErly? 

Maybe my memory is faulty, but I thought we had 60cm +!

[A Winter's Tale]

A lot of the charts appear to show Glasgow being on the south western extent of the showers. I’m hopeful of seeing some snow but how much remains to be seen. It looks like most of the action will be to the north of the Forth and especially north of the Tay. I think some parts of Fife, Angus, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire could see up to at least a foot of snow. 

It’ll also be interesting to see how cold it will get under such a cold airmass. The met office are going for nights of 2C and lows of -2C. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with colder values than current projections - perhaps later next week we could see some very low minimum temperatures especially in areas with snow cover. 

Looking further ahead the models are suggesting an extension of the cold spell into next weekend and possibly into the following week. We could end up with cold, anticyclonic conditions or perhaps another easterly. I’m in two minds about the potential breakdown. There’s a part of me that would like to see a proper snowy breakdown (especially if the easterly struggles to deliver for central and western areas) but it would also be great to have a more prolonged cold spell. We could potentially be looking at the coldest February since 1986 and maybe even a subzero mean temperature for the month if the cold persists beyond mid month - that would make for a notably cold winter if not an especially snowy one. Ideally, we end up with a big battleground snow event to conclude a memorable week for cold and snow with the cold winning out with further easterlies followed by high pressure retrogressing to Greenland. 

 

 

[JamesM]

5 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

From what I recall there were a few troughs coming through, and the intensity was so strong that it didn't really matter about the topography so much:

- this is from 1.30pm on the 28th February

The flow must have changed after the 28th. We got showers right through the day on the 28th but nothing after that as the showers funnelled continuously through the central belt about 10 to 15 miles north. Remember trying to get to work in Greenock on the 1st and having to turn back half way when I reached the limit of the ability of the old car to be a snowplough!

[Mair Snaw]

Im going to go back to the 2018 thread and read it for the BFTE just for fun...

[Allyw12]

1 minute ago, TinyTim said:

Maybe my memory is faulty, but I thought we had 60cm +!

@TinyTim I think you are right, I remember climbing over a walls of snow after gritters ploughed our street

[edo]

12 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

@MAXcrazystorm @edo @TinyTim can you remember how much snow we got back in 2010 in perth?  I thought 20cm+ but I’m sure it was more than that

This much that pic was Sunday night after about 20 hours of snow. 

 

The largest I measured was 18 inches.... It was crazy though so many top ups and mini thaws at times.... It pretty snowed here from midnight on the Saturday until 3 am Monday Morning... 

[Michael Kaii]

Could anyone help me. Was wondering with the model charts for what does it mean for Bo'ness I’m on the fourth and the last time we got an beast from the east we done well. So how does this one upcoming do for us