Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Wee County Exile]

33 minutes ago, Zerouali lives said:

First hint of wintriness falling from the sky in Aberdeen city now

Same here in Culter - those lower temps maybe starting to kick in ?

[howham]

Yes, it's definitely turned back to persistent light-moderate snow here.  Temperature is falling as well, down to 0.9C.  Was 2.1C just a couple of hours ago.

[Wee County Exile]

11 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Comedy gold from the Met Office.

App forecast is for heavy snow until Midnight and beyond.

Yellow weather warning for rain.

Hopeless

 

I have been genuinely bamboozled by the differences and contradictions in the forecasts from both the met and bbc over the last few days - appreciate it’s maybe a hard one to call but they genuinely appear to be making it up as they go along

 

[jon_d1983]

3 minutes ago, Wee County Exile said:

Same here in Culter - those lower temps maybe starting to kick in ?

nothing up in Altens industrial estate apart from Wetness

[Highest EK]

Over the last couple of hours, rain turned to sleet, now moderate snow. Hopefully it'll reach lower elevations soon.

[Wee County Exile]

Just now, jon_d1983 said:

nothing up in Altens industrial estate apart from Wetness

In that movie the day after tomorrow it still didn’t snow in Allens

Seriously - probably just too close to the sea even though it’s up a hill ??

[drm]

4 minutes ago, jon_d1983 said:

nothing up in Altens industrial estate apart from Wetness

Uppers starting to creep down now after topping out last night -6 hpa indicated over Aberdeen now, it will be a slow process ,the sooner we see -10c uppers the better especially on the coast in the East 1.9c T 1.1 dp at present lowering 

Edited February 5, 2021 by drm

[howham]

The snow is pepping up here.  I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic...

[Wee County Exile]

2 minutes ago, Highest EK said:

Over the last couple of hours, rain turned to sleet, now moderate snow. Hopefully it'll reach lower elevations soon.

 

Just now, howham said:

The snow is pepping up here.  I'm starting to feel a little more optimistic...

Good sign for more lowland Aberdeenshire as the night progresses

[lorenzo]

Hello 528

 

 

[edo]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

Over in the model thread I don't normally pay any attention to the posters that go looking for breakdowns from cold spells that in many cases haven't even begun. However I did notice a post from John Holmes whose views I do respect saying that using all three of his methods including the 500, sfce and T charts the Atlantic breaks through the whole of the UK. by day 10 from the SW.  Any views on this?

I noticed this too, i have always taken a lot of notice of John's posts they are excellent and i have found the most accurate indication of pattern changes. I think it seems a good chance it can happen but with all the variables in the NH pattern right now there is perhaps more chance than normal of it moving. We have all seen how snow cover and the impact it can have on our island helping repel the first breakdown attempts but its not what i would want to see.

[asjmcguire]

2009/10 taught me to ignore the models when they try and break down the cold. They were doing it every single run, constantly trying to let the Atlantic back in, even before the snow was actually on the ground. And then run after run, just kept extending the cold by another few days, but still trying to let the Atlantic back in by the end of the run.

[drm]

4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Hello 528

 

 

May your stay be long

[jon_d1983]

7 minutes ago, Wee County Exile said:

In that movie the day after tomorrow it still didn’t snow in Allens

Seriously - probably just too close to the sea even though it’s up a hill ??

I am right up at the very top as well blowing a Gale but rain could be closeness to the sea but I think it’s just too mild. Was 4c here mid morning but dropped to 1.5 now 

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS a bit better than yesterday's 12Z with lower heights and a stronger flow:

UKMO still a bit 'limp' looking, for the reasons outlined previously I think (not enough on that low in the Channel on Sunday):

Quite interested in how it tried to carve out more of a Scandi high though, that might be something that could develop and create a bit of a longer lasting easterly:

Doesn't quite manage it on this go but you can see how, with a bit of a westward shift, we could end up with a longer easterly:

Edited February 5, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[jon_d1983]

1 minute ago, drm said:

May your stay be long

Do we not want that 520 to drop for “ideal” conditions?

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

GFS a bit better than yesterday's 12Z with lower heights and a stronger flow:

UKMO still a bit 'limp' looking, for the reasons outlined previously I think (not enough on that low in the Channel on Sunday):

Quite interested in how it tried to carve out more of a Scandi high though, that might be something that could develop and create a bit of a longer lasting easterly:

every model still has its take on the easterly next week.... quite irritating to see it change each run. 

[drm]

Just now, jon_d1983 said:

Do we not want that 520 to drop for “ideal” conditions?

Of course let his friends come too 512,504 are very welcome

[Sceptical]

24 minutes ago, Wee County Exile said:

I have been genuinely bamboozled by the differences and contradictions in the forecasts from both the met and bbc over the last few days - appreciate it’s maybe a hard one to call but they genuinely appear to be making it up as they go along

 

The Met Office pride themselves with being consistently ranked within the top two operational weather services in the world. How the mighty have fallen.....

Edited February 5, 2021 by Sceptical

[Puffy MacCloud]

5 hours ago, Quinach said:

What a dog's breakfast these warnings are in terms of clarity.

For here it appears that we are under a Yellow Rain Warning, Yellow Snow Warning and a Amber Snow Warning all at the same time!

And they wonder why people ignore these warnings.

I think you'll find that the "Yellow Snow Warning" is satisfyingly simple. Don't eat it. The Yellow Warnings for Snow, however, are a lot more complicated and therefore unreliable. Ignore them. If you can't ignore them, accept the consequences...

Temperature now 2.1deg.C, rain up to 6.8mm for the day and the dew point is at 1deg.C with not the slightest hint of snow.

[lorenzo]

It's a good watch LS in terms of the what happens next with the Scandi. evolution. Looking at the EC from last night's 12z that idea gaining some ground in comparison on the 12z, you can see the difference across the Atlantic UKMO dissipating with the GFS energetic as per usual.

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by lorenzo

[JamesM]

After rain on and off all day it’s back to driving sleet. Woo hoo (said no one ever!)

[blitzen]

30 minutes ago, Wee County Exile said:

I have been genuinely bamboozled by the differences and contradictions in the forecasts from both the met and bbc over the last few days - appreciate it’s maybe a hard one to call but they genuinely appear to be making it up as they go along

 

Told ya!

[Puffy MacCloud]

2 hours ago, Blitzen said:

Okay...

Couple of pics from last August which forced us to put in the pumping system.  Didn't take these pics until the weather broke a bit and the water was starting to recede.   It was actually almost up to the border at the fir tree (top right)   The garden is on a gradient, so the water/mud mark on the gazebo frame in front of the wall (bottom left) measured 4'3".  (deepest part.)

Off out now to take some pics of what we have today.

 

Right, get a Japanese style humpy wudden bridge and a water colour set - you'll make a fortune in reprints and tourist visits. Or at least it worked for auld Claude.

[Cheggers]

1 minute ago, JamesM said:

After rain on and off all day it’s back to driving sleet. Woo hoo (said no one ever!)

At least you have sleet lol