Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, Sanserit said:

I'm fairly sure someone's transplanted Banchory to the coast because all I'm seeing is wet sleety p*sh coming down when all around us has proper sna!

Currently 3.3c/1.3c and wind coming from SE.  Is it too much to ask to give us a decent dump of sna?!

I can see the Ellon snaw shield in all its glory right enough.

[NUT]

VILE! Cold and wet (it's not stopped) UGH

[Sceptical]

Lying snow seems to be thawing now as the snow turns increasingly wet.

[jellybaby1969]

Certainly a note worthy spell for many north of the central belt...accumulations could be huge. Doesn't look great for those of us in the west..i am ready to throw the towel in for my location. 

[JoeShmoe]

31 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Very similar GFS chart to that of Feb 2018,,,,Interesting

I remember the MetO released the red warning sometime in the morning IIRC to start at 12pm and it was chaos everyone trying to get home from the town centre - moral of the story being they obv can't forecast these convective events until they've almost started ...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[blitzen]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

This winter the Met haven't covered themselves in glory. Today however, they've been bang on with their forecast/warning.

Its meant to go mad here about 3pm.

I think they only do certainties!!

[chemikal]

It is great to see so many snaw photos but here in Glasgow it has pretty much been three days of heavy rain/sleet. I got soaked going to the post office so thought I may as well continue walking down to Linn Park to take some photos of the waterfall. I've seen it worse and faster flowing but I think it will look quite different by tomorrow.

My boss & sister in law is taking part in the Commons Petition Commitee  with other music industry people at 2:30 this afternoon. It has been triggered by the petition to “Seek Europe-wide Visa-free work permit for Touring professionals and Artists”. I hope the MP's involved actually listen and act on it rather than giving excuses, blame the EU and lies. Not holding my breath...

[Norrance]

Feeling a bit fragile today as we raised a glass or two online  last night for my big cousin the "bodach"from Stornoway who passed last week. Not helped by a miserable day again. Temps up a degree or two so most of the wintriness from yesterday has gone. Currently windy and wet at 3.3C

Got my snow fix by picking up some pics from my old area in Highland Perthshire where above 200 mtrs the snow has been almost constant for over two days. Maybe not quite as much as further NE but getting there.

[blitzen]

Another copy and paste job!   I think this may go on and on and on and...

[Northern Strath]

Quieter today with less showers so far and some dripping at 1.2c. Wee top up overnight. Overall cover (including the original stuff that fell in Victorian times) around 38cms, with some towering drift-work around 

It’s nice to some areas getting walloped. Hopefully anyone getting rain/snizzle/pishle will see it turn to snow as we move on

The 1978 blizzard was just before my time but the local accounts when you speak to people are incredible. They had 5 feet level snow fall up the Glen from here 

[blitzen]

1 hour ago, Puffy MacCloud said:

Snow chains have arrived. Snow hasn't. Bugger. Still, the advert said they are great in mud, which is good. Ish.

Temperature 2.3deg.C up from 1.4deg.C min. at midnight, humidity 91%, wind 5 to 10mph easterly generally with a 15mph gust a couple of hours ago, pressure 1007.1hPa steady, there's been 5.2mm of rain so far today, cloud cover is 8/8 and the dew point is at 1deg.C.

Diablo, he say snow, but he's obviously heard about the snow chains and he's taking the pish.

Oh, and I received my letter from Oor Nicola this morning inviting me, as a special person, for my vaccination on the 13th of this month, which is unfortunately a day late for me to be able to attend the funerals of my aunt and father. Bugger. Again.

I have this snowblower........Interested??? I think you may have bought yourself 10years of ridicule!!

[snowlessayr]

I am not expecting anything from this easterly, so to not get my hopes up. If I get some then I will be super happy. Easterlies usually don't deliver for here. 

Looking forward to all the snow pics though, enjoy 

[Ross B]

Cracking photos from everyone as usual. Some places are going to be cut off by the weekend as the heaviest snow hasn't even moved in yet! 

 More heavy sleet here today, it looks to be trending towards snow here but it'll probably turn back to rain soon

 

This webcam pic from the M77 probably sums it up for most lowlanders... 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ross B

[Methuselah]

Just now, Blitzen said:

I have this snowblower........Interested??? I think you may have bought yourself 10years of ridicule!!

Just watched the latest MetO forecast, on YouTube, Blitzen... It must be a wee bit draughty around the bealachs up there?

[A Winter's Tale]

In the Beast from the east the red warning covered much of the central belt with Dumbarton on the western edge of the warning. 26cm fell here just to the north of Glasgow. If I remember correctly less snow fell in the south side of Glasgow whilst some places further west around such as Greenock and Balloch got a lot of snow - up to 2 feet in some places.

The Beast from the East exceeded my expectations - an absolutely unforgettable experience - though it was a very uneven event in terms of snow depths. I remember having concerns about the convective potential given the lower SSTs so late in the season but that didn’t turn out to be an issue. I think initially it started as an ENEly on the 27th with a stream of showers from the Tay towards Glasgow and once the first couple of inches had fallen I felt much more relaxed about the easterly delivering. A few weeks later there was another easterly which also produced 5cm. There haven’t been too many easterlies in recent years - prior to 2018, March 2013 had frequent snow showers but accumulations were no better than 2-3cm. Nov 2010 was phenomenal with 25cm and 2nd Feb 2009 also produced an inch or two. 

During easterlies most places to the east of the M74, Cumbernauld, Loch Earn and the Cairngorms tend to do well depending on where streamers set up and the track of showers. Usually some should reach Renfrewshire, the Erskine Bridge and Loch Lomond. It’s a struggle for areas further west, in particular Ayrshire and parts of the Western Highlands and Islands, though 2018 is an example of how easterlies can deliver to areas west of Glasgow. 

I’m keeping expectations low and hoping for at least a couple of inches snow here - which should be more than achievable but not inevitable looking at the charts. Once that threshold is hopefully reached then it becomes a case of how much snow will fall rather than if. Given the potential in the charts it would be great if the western central Belt can get 10-30cm to rival 2018 and other memorable snowfalls - anything more than 30cm is almost too much! Areas in the eastern half of Scotland could see widely 15-40cm with the worst hit areas seeing more than half a metre which would rank among the best events in the past few decades.

It will also be nice to have a few ice days which is rarer in February compared to earlier in the winter. Despite a very cold January Glasgow is yet to a record a maximum of 0C or lower. Looking at the models from this morning it appears the cold might be extended by a day or two with much of Scotland under uppers below -10C which is remarkable. Hopefully the blocking is more robust than the models are showing and we end up extending the cold further into February. If not then perhaps we could see a snowy breakdown on top of the snow from the easterly. An interesting 10 days are ahead of us and it will be fascinating to see how this event compares to 2018 and other events .

 

[scott125]

17 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

In the Beast from the east the red warning covered much of the central belt with Dumbarton on the western edge of the warning. 26cm fell here just to the north of Glasgow. If I remember correctly less snow fell in the south side of Glasgow whilst some places further west around such as Greenock and Balloch got a lot of snow - up to 2 feet in some places.

The Beast from the East exceeded my expectations - an absolutely unforgettable experience - though it was a very uneven event in terms of snow depths. I remember having concerns about the convective potential given the lower SSTs so late in the season but that didn’t turn out to be an issue. I think initially it started as an ENEly on the 27th with a stream of showers from the Tay towards Glasgow and once the first couple of inches had fallen I felt much more relaxed about the easterly delivering. A few weeks later there was another easterly which also produced 5cm. There haven’t been too many easterlies in recent years - prior to 2018, March 2013 had frequent snow showers but accumulations were no better than 2-3cm. Nov 2010 was phenomenal with 25cm and 2nd Feb 2009 also produced an inch or two. 

During easterlies most places to the east of the M74, Cumbernauld, Loch Earn and the Cairngorms tend to do well depending on where streamers set up and the track of showers. Usually some should reach Renfrewshire, the Erskine Bridge and Loch Lomond. It’s a struggle for areas further west, in particular Ayrshire and parts of the Western Highlands and Islands, though 2018 is an example of how easterlies can deliver to areas west of Glasgow. 

I’m keeping expectations low and hoping for at least a couple of inches snow here - which should be more than achievable but not inevitable looking at the charts. Once that threshold is hopefully reached then it becomes a case of how much snow will fall rather than if. Given the potential in the charts it would be great if the western central Belt can get 10-30cm to rival 2018 and other memorable snowfalls - anything more than 30cm is almost too much! Areas in the eastern half of Scotland could see widely 15-40cm with the worst hit areas seeing more than half a metre which would rank among the best events in the past few decades.

It will also be nice to have a few ice days which is rarer in February compared to earlier in the winter. Despite a very cold January Glasgow is yet to a record a maximum of 0C or lower. Looking at the models from this morning it appears the cold might be extended by a day or two with much of Scotland under uppers below -10C which is remarkable. Hopefully the blocking is more robust than the models are showing and we end up extending the cold further into February. If not then perhaps we could see a snowy breakdown on top of the snow from the easterly. An interesting 10 days are ahead of us and it will be fascinating to see how this event compares to 2018 and other events .

 

2010 was colder and had more snow than the beast from the east for East Kilbride. And was much shorter lived.

[Quinach]

The subtle shift in wind direction from the overnight easterly to the current south-easterly is definitely making things more marginal here.

Temperature now up to 2.9c and a rapid melt on exposed surfaces, things also getting a bit slushy underfoot as well.

To cap it all, the last shower was of rain.

It's going to be interesting to see what actually happens in this Amber event as the Norwegians have always marked it down as a sleet affair compared to the more bullish Met Office - based on temperatures today, the form horse are the Norwegians as they were right in their 3c max compared to the others maxim of 1c.

[asjmcguire]

3C

Apart from some still frozen ground in the garden, all the snow has gone.

I'm not going to get excited about the warnings for my area until we get closer, because I won't be terribly surprised if I wake up to torrential rain and 16C temperatures tomorrow the way things are going....

Anyway here is yesterdays timelapse.....

 

[Highest EK]

Yes BFTE not as great south of Glasgow, probably around 15cm here - not quite the right wind direction for the Forth/Clyde streamers, the wind coming over more of the land.

Still snowing here - 3 days almost continuous but varying between spells of proper snow that builds up and the wet variety with slow melt. Currently very wet and flakes hanging on by the skin of their teeth. Snow on ground very slushy and consolidated especially on the roads where gritters have come through the estate. Hope it survives the current less cold period!

 

[Puffy MacCloud]

23 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

I have this snowblower........Interested??? I think you may have bought yourself 10years of ridicule!!

Em, naw.

I fear ten years may prove to be an underestimate. Just got an e-mail to say the delivery of my new snow shoes, handmade in Aviemore from locally sourced materials by a chap called Reginald, will be delayed until, yes, you guessed it, the weather improves. Reginald should have invested in snow chains.

Anyway, the snow chains are dual purpose and are being stored in my dressing up box for use in photo sessions that I upload to certain speciality websites...

[Norrance]

31 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

Quieter today with less showers so far and some dripping at 1.2c. Wee top up overnight. Overall cover (including the original stuff that fell in Victorian times) around 38cms, with some towering drift-work around 

It’s nice to some areas getting walloped. Hopefully anyone getting rain/snizzle/pishle will see it turn to snow as we move on

The 1978 blizzard was just before my time but the local accounts when you speak to people are incredible. They had 5 feet level snow fall up the Glen from here 

My brother decided to go skiing that weekend travelling up from Aberfeldy and staying at Glenmore. He didn't get home until the Wednesday evening.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

49 minutes ago, edo said:

@Mr Frostthat third picture is incredible, i was in Dunoon last year and was in Gourock....hard to imagine it like that 

@Kirkcaldy Weatherpromises Thundersnow we will take that.....good stuff mate

is there any danger at all i will wake up to any snow tomorrow, im thinking not but from a work perspective i need to make an accurate call  

Snow looks quite unlikely to settle in perth, the risk really looks like towards Crieff, Pitlochry and Dunblane Northwards generally.

[Sceptical]

4 minutes ago, Puffy MacCloud said:

Em, naw.

I fear ten years may prove to be an underestimate. Just got an e-mail to say the delivery of my new snow shoes, handmade in Aviemore from locally sourced materials by a chap called Reginald, will be delayed until, yes, you guessed it, the weather improves. Reginald should have invested in snow chains.

Anyway, the snow chains are dual purpose and are being stored in my dressing up box for use in photo sessions that I upload to certain speciality websites...

Make sure your snow chains are properly fitted. Years ago, I had the pleasure of watching a guy wreck the rear of his Range Rover after the drivers rear chain broke lose.

Eventually I started flashing my lights and gestured for him to pull over. Suffice to say he was fuming and blamed his wife as she had fitted them

[Ravelin]

5 minutes ago, Quinach said:

The subtle shift in wind direction from the overnight easterly to the current south-easterly is definitely making things more marginal here.

Temperature now up to 2.9c and a rapid melt on exposed surfaces, things also getting a bit slushy underfoot as well.

To cap it all, the last shower was of rain.

It's going to be interesting to see what actually happens in this Amber event as the Norwegians have always marked it down as a sleet affair compared to the more bullish Met Office - based on temperatures today, the form horse are the Norwegians as they were right in their 3c max compared to the others maxim of 1c.

Temp creeping up here too but still only 0.6/0.2C, but even here the snow is definitely a bit wetter than earlier. The road past the house was easily turning white during showers earlier but is staying black at the moment. MetoO has the temp dropping a degree in the next hour or two, which combined with heavier snow, maybe? , might make the difference. I must say though that as the Amber warning time approaches the snow seems to be easing off, lol.