Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Bullseye]

5 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

I stand corrected. I am completely wrong. GFS (purple line) has outperformed every model over the past few days. I don't ever remember seeing that before. 

 

Isn't that new GFS (GFS//) in Purple? 

Over the course of above graph looks to be ECM still comes out on top but as you say GFS looks best over last few days but of course different pattern involved now with how this low is handled next 72/96 hrs. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Bullseye

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

I stand corrected. I am completely wrong. GFS (purple line) has outperformed every model over the past few days. I don't ever remember seeing that before. 

 

That's the new GFS p at the top if I am reading that correctly, we wait to see its 12z but it was better than the op on the 06z though the 12z op isn't complete awful just more on the risky side but as @LomondSnowstorm pointed out the GEM and UKMO get the cleaner easterly in 

[Penicuikblizzard]

49 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

The UKMO is still solid

GFS is a bit frustrating and nail biting but just about alright for here from Sunday on:

I am a bit concerned certainly because we aren't too many changes away from a significantly worse outcome but we should hopefully get a resolution on the pesky low by this time tomorrow.

 

What I would say is I think a 'clean' transition to an easterly is less likely, not that most of us could really describe the current conditions as clear cut, but I'd think the low will at least hang around enough on Thursday and early Friday to cause continued marginality but also potentially significant snowfall, most likely but not exclusively for Aberdeenshire.

 

The GEM (which I unfairly overlook sometimes relative to its performance) looks solid too

It’s definitely backtracking though as it was originally Thursday night the real cold was kicking in and it’s now looking like Sunday,,,,I did say a few days ago with the frigid cold in the USA that could have a knock on affect for us after the east coast winter storm is sending all the lows streaming over the Atlantic. The cold uppers seem to be becoming less cold with each run too

Edited February 2, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Quote

Bitterly cold east-north east wind here fresh light covering on top of existing several inches this morning, light hail/ snow grains in the wind real continental type snow. Currrently 1.2c with windchill of minus 4 

 

[Klippie]

I hate when I'am right about the weather...all we've had today is horrible manky grey sleety pish, try as it might it couldn't bring itself to snaw, what makes it worse is its bloody freezing out there and hardly a white flake to be seen...I did get excited for a minute but it was a short lived burst of wet snow which instantly turned back to rain.

Then I found the cause...Mossmorran and that bloody flame warming the air up and melting aw the snaw..!!!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Klippie

[metallikat34]

4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

That's the new GFS p at the top if I am reading that correctly, we wait to see its 12z but it was better than the op on the 06z though the 12z op isn't complete awful just more on the risky side but as @LomondSnowstorm pointed out the GEM and UKMO get the cleaner easterly in 

Correct. New GFS at the top and this if for a 5 day forecast lead. So it was leading as of a few days ago. Let's see what it looks like after the lemon storm pattern of this week!

[Ross B]

Somebody's messing with me, it's dark, snowing heavily and everything is turning white but the street lights aren't working!!  The worst week for it

[blitzen]

2 minutes ago, Klippie said:

I hate when I'am right about the weather...all we've had today is horrible manky grey sleety pish, try as it might it couldn't bring itself to snaw, what makes it worse is its bloody freezing out there and hardly a white flake to be seen...I did get excited for a minute but it was a short lived burst of wet snow which instantly turned back to rain.

Then I found the cause...Mossmorran and that bloody flame warming the air up and melting aw the snaw..!!!

If that is current, then it looks like they are having a problem? (again)   Read somewhere lately that a black cloud usually means they have suffered 'an event'  The disclosure of which usually appears in a discreet column in the press  about a fortnight afterwards!!

[jellybaby1969]

Rain continues in killie .. i expect more wet pish in Irvine when i get home. So difficult in this location  to get snow !!

[Geedawg]

Really getting somehwere now. I just hope it keeps up! 

[Richard Taylor]

Minimum sna here... bit of hail now rain (Temp +3/Dew +1). No snow or minimal at best... again! What an underwhelming winter. 

[Big Innes Madori]

7 hours ago, Big Innes Madori said:

Stated Snawing here noo after earlier sporadic bits of rain!

Let's see if it brings anything worth talking aboot

Big Innes 

News jist in!

EH,Naw

It has mostly been wet Snaw or sleety pish a' day, with the white Snaw covering from aboot the 800 ft asl oan the Hills here

Big Innes 

[101_North]

Snow back on here and settling again after the last decent burst disappeared as quickly as it appeared. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by 101_North

[Allyw12]

Still rain here last time I checked, hope the models don’t backtrack too much  

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Continuous rain/sleet/wet snow here. Every time I check my weather app on my phone the snow has been pushed back by an hour.

[Sceptical]

Light rain with 1.5C.

[Zerouali lives]

18 minutes ago, Richard Taylor said:

Minimum sna here... bit of hail now rain (Temp +3/Dew +1). No snow or minimal at best... again! What an underwhelming winter. 

It's snowing just west of the city centre now - not really lying but leaving it slushy in places. I thought we'd get nothing but rain until the weekend

[Klippie]

Here is our snow gauge...at 350m Benarty Hill looking great with a nice ice top, Kelty cross is 142m up and the motorway fly-over is 180m so the snow is not that far away just a wee bit colder and the freezing level will drop and the snaw will come...that's what I keep telling myself anyway.

[101_North]

All white here again. The type of snow that is best enjoyed from the window  

[Polar Side]

Decent wee cover building here.

 

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

40 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It’s definitely backtracking though as it was originally Thursday night the real cold was kicking in and it’s now looking like Sunday,,,,I did say a few days ago with the frigid cold in the USA that could have a knock on affect for us after the east coast winter storm is sending all the lows streaming over the Atlantic. The cold uppers seem to be becoming less cold with each run too

I think that's possible, and it's true that we often find the flow gets a bit less 'clean' closer to the time, particularly talking about the initial onset of the easterly.

I would say though, the ECM was absolutely not having it at all with an easterly as recently as Sunday morning, for example:

And even the 12Z on Sunday only had the -8C line cross Scotland once. It's been a weird one in that the GFS up to now has outperformed the ECM (as metallikat said!) but now the GFS, at least based on the output so far today, has been a bit slower on the cold.

[Quinach]

Dreich afternoon with a max of 3.1c; now 1.7c with showers of rain.  Stiff easterly breeze, that at least getting rid of the rotting calabrese smell coming from the rapeseed fields!

The various weather apps still undecided what is going to happen here over the next few days, though seem trending back to a sleety mess.  No doubt all changed again in a few hours.

[LomondSnowstorm]

It has tried very hard to settle here but alas it just doesn't seem to be happening for now, the heavy pulses on the radar haven't really materialised on the ground here to the extent you'd expect (I wonder if topography has anything to do with it with the wind so strong) but we'll see if that changes overnight.

I'm going to assume it'll be largely dry until morning and avoid posting until morning after the ECMWF - got a (virtual) exam in the morning, ironically on weather modelling, and I think there's only so far you can argue to yourself that this is revision without taking the Swearing AGAIN

Edited February 2, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

I think that's possible, and it's true that we often find the flow gets a bit less 'clean' closer to the time, particularly talking about the initial onset of the easterly.

I would say though, the ECM was absolutely not having it at all with an easterly as recently as Sunday morning, for example:

And even the 12Z on Sunday only had the -8C line cross Scotland once. It's been a weird one in that the GFS up to now has outperformed the ECM (as metallikat said!) but now the GFS, at least based on the output so far today, has been a bit slower on the cold.

I'm wondering if it could be a bit 2010 esque I'm not talking about the snow depths so to speak but who knows, we could still get those really cold 850 temperatures but back in 2010 it was majority between - 8 to -10 which we may be looking at this time and to go with @shuggee omen the forecast from that date popped up on my YouTube homepage the other day

[101_North]

Temp down to -0.2c in this heavier pulse. But.....still not convinced my garden sensor is functioning optimally! Been a few readings last few days that don't feel quite right.