Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[101_North]

2 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Everything is just decaying before it gets here (oragaphic effect over southern uplands or no grunt in the front!) .. to the point where we've had really light drizzle all morning and light grey skies

Edinburgh still seems to be under the influence of that easterly flow. Can see it on the radar. The heavier stuff does look to be slowly moving up but that easterly flow currently killing it.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Might be like a big horse race where would we place our money

06z gfs op going a bit high risk high reward  

the others take a slightly more relaxed route possibly longer lasting, I really am going to have to be like meditating homer

[101_North]

Pretty much stopped here for now but it looks like winter again outside. Garden says 0c but I really need to get that checked. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

4 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

Not guilty, sir. I never forget.  Year round, easterlies are unwelcome, the very occasional import of -10c 850s excepted.

Thanks as always for the informative post @LomondSnowstorm

4.1c here, wet and windy.

Of course, I was more meaning, uhm, some of us who for some reason happen to be temporarily displaced in the west and thought they were suddenly immune to that sort of thing

 

It is snowing here but pretty light and not settling yet, the radar is starting to pep up but I do think as Joe says we could end up with a bit of a precipitation shadow in central areas. In Innsbruck the equivalent setup would be called a 'Südstau', where the main precipitation is stuck at the ridge to the south and struggles to get over, but you'd think it could manage to get over the Pentlands a bit better than the 2000+m peaks there

[JoeShmoe]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Might be like a big horse race where would we place our money

06z gfs op going a bit high risk high reward  

the others take a slightly more relaxed route possibly longer lasting, I really am going to have to be like meditating homer

Either option looks broadly ok for many.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Paul

[Puffy MacCloud]

I was just typing a letter of complaint to the effect that I still haven't seen my first flipping flake of this so-called snow event when I did. One teeny tiny flake. Well, not even a flake really. Just a miniscule precipitate aspiring to snowdom. I've now seen three of the little blighters and I have to say that I'm less than impressed. Even Diablo has nothing to say on the subject.

Temperature 1.7deg.C up from 1.3deg.C minimum at 05:29, humidity is 89%, wind is 3 to 6mph east-southeasterly generally with a max gust of 16mph, pressure is 995.2hPa steady, there's been 0.8mm of drizzle so far today, cloud cover is 8/8 and the dew point is at 0deg.C.

[Penicuikblizzard]

Yellow warning for the snow at the weekend Up to 20cm possible even at low levels 

[Ravelin]

Wednesday weather warning expanded and extended into Thursday....

Warnings for Friday & Saturday have disappeared, but it's not unusual for them to do this then re-appear a bit later when they are doing updates.

Edit:

New warning out for Fri-Sun....

Edited February 2, 2021 by Ravelin

[Ross B]

Latest meto warning update extends the snow warning across nearly all of Scotland Friday through to Sunday, highest impact but low probability at the moment so expect amber warnings to be issued later in the week if everything stays the same...

 

"An area of heavy rain and snow over Scotland will slowly move south over the weekend, bringing further snow accumulations, firstly over high ground in the north, but increasingly to low levels through Saturday and into Sunday. A further 20 to 30 cm may fall above 200 m, with 5 to 10, perhaps locally 20 cm falling even to low levels as we move into the weekend. Strong winds could lead to significant drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions."

 

Also light snow here now which seems to slowly be getting heavier...

Edited February 2, 2021 by Ross B

[edo]

Rain here and snow in Bungleland so normal 20/21 service resumed seen a video of impressive looking snow falling in Glendevon near Dollar. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

41 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Might be like a big horse race where would we place our money

06z gfs op going a bit high risk high reward  

the others take a slightly more relaxed route possibly longer lasting, I really am going to have to be like meditating homer

I'm not sure I'd have any finger nails left if that narrow path was what we were waiting on The 6Z yesterday was not dissimilar to that though so I suppose it's not too bad, we do still seem to have a little wiggle room as far as paths to a good easterly go but we just don't want that low on Thursday getting any further north or west or there might be problems (god knows we've seen too many of these vanish).

 

The ECM ensembles continue to look very very solid:

I do think the bump Thursday/Friday in the operational may be more likely than not given how many of the higher resolution models are going for it at the moment but notable that the majority of runs don't go for it and instead put us straight into the freezer on Friday.

[Kayemill]

Snow flakes mixed in with the rain here in Prestwick at sea level. 

[101_North]

9 minutes ago, edo said:

Rain here and snow in Bungleland so normal 20/21 service resumed seen a video of impressive looking snow falling in Glendevon near Dollar. 

 

Looked nice for a while but it's stopped and the temp is up so it's all disappearing quickly! 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

I'm not sure I'd have any finger nails left if that narrow path was what we were waiting on The 6Z yesterday was not dissimilar to that though so I suppose it's not too bad, we do still seem to have a little wiggle room as far as paths to a good easterly go but we just don't want that low on Thursday getting any further north or west or there might be problems (god knows we've seen too many of these vanish).

 

The ECM ensembles continue to look very very solid:

I do think the bump Thursday/Friday in the operational may be more likely than not given how many of the higher resolution models are going for it at the moment but notable that the majority of runs don't go for it and instead put us straight into the freezer on Friday.

The gem ensemble mean from the 00z looks like one of the best outcomes can’t do a gif so here’s 60-120-180 

the last frame of the wrf nmm 0.05 does get the   

[Polar Gael]

Snow on and off overnight and this morning, but now more organised and has turned heavier. Settling readily. Currently 1.2°C/0°C.

And this is just the start of it...

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Light rain all morning in Glasgow. I see a lot of met office snow & ice warnings covering the Greater Glasgow area over the next week. Trying not to let my cynicism get the better of me, but part of me still thinks we’ll see the Clyde Valley be missed out.

Please tell me I’m wrong.

[Dundeeguy]

Don’t think I’ve ever seen such a stark early warnings for 3 consecutive days - 5-10 cm for lower levels possibly 20cm locally Amber and red warnings to be out in force by end of week me thinks

[Ravelin]

Brief shower of very fine snow here as the showers move in off the North Sea ahead of the front. Temp up to 1.2/-1.5C and although the frost has gone from the cars there's no sign of any thaw of the snow, in fact it's still virtually solid.

[Northernlights]

-3c this morning and clouding over. Watching a few  snow showers going onto the coast above Golspie on the other side of the Firth in the SE wind

[JoeShmoe]

39 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Latest meto warning update extends the snow warning across nearly all of Scotland Friday through to Sunday, highest impact but low probability at the moment so expect amber warnings to be issued later in the week if everything stays the same...

 

"An area of heavy rain and snow over Scotland will slowly move south over the weekend, bringing further snow accumulations, firstly over high ground in the north, but increasingly to low levels through Saturday and into Sunday. A further 20 to 30 cm may fall above 200 m, with 5 to 10, perhaps locally 20 cm falling even to low levels as we move into the weekend. Strong winds could lead to significant drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions."

Does that indicate that's a sinking low pressure as opposed to showers off the North Sea? Would seem to suggest that?

[Northern Strath]

We appear to be under a scatter of warnings and ever changing amounts of snow symbols here, classic ‘no one has a clue what will happen’ displays on the assorted apps. As ever, will be tuning in on here for  potential, analysis and updates. The met office warning system is just for sh*ts and giggles, yellow, amber, red, mauve, Trump’s complexion, they’re largely a nonsense. Have worked outside enough years to know the weather will do as the weather pleases and certainly won’t stick to wee coloured boundaries. Anyhoo, feel free to use my detailed warning map below for the coming days folks and good luck with yer snow

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

3 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Does that indicate that's a sinking low pressure as opposed to showers off the North Sea? Would seem to suggest that?

I'd think initially yeah, the occlusion sinking south as the cold air undercuts behind it is what they're suggesting, something like this:

You'd then see the showers coming in behind, but also fair to say the intensity of precipitation on the front would be significantly enhanced by North Sea convection too.

[scott125]

Snowing ever so slightly in East Kilbride

[LomondSnowstorm]

27 minutes ago, scott125 said:

Snowing ever so slightly in East Kilbride

I'm tracking that at the moment, looks like the heaviest pulse is about to move over you and, hopefully, keep going northwards a bit...

 

UKV for a couple of hours time:

Does suggest we will see some heavier precipitation (my guess is snow) in central areas this afternoon before it transfers north. Does look like a lot of snow potentially for Stirling northwards and maybe higher parts of Fife as that's where the intensity is likely to be strongest. Watch out for a second pulse moving through this evening too:

Marginal in places but the freezing level still looks fine enough certainly at around 300m:

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[SW Saltire]

Was snowing heavily earlier on. Even snow in the far South West according to people I know (Rhins of Galloway). 
Still a sludgy couple centimetres left here in the outskirts of Dumfries but sadly drip...drip...drip. 2c

Fingers crossed for some fierce cold next week, got another local hill booked in to climb Sunday so shall go find winter if it won’t come to me.  

Edited February 2, 2021 by SW Saltire