Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[aggy]

1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Is that for the frontal event or the Easterly at the end of the week

Frontal event could

all change though 

[Klippie]

Chilly day today it topped out around 3deg/C...the temperatures dropped pretty rapid when the sun went down currently sitting at -0.6deg/C.

I'am still not sure about Tuesday and Wednesday even this close it all seems to be up in the air...someone is going to get a decent snowfall I'am just not sure it will be here.

I was in the shed this afternoon and this was sitting there...I couldn't bring myself to take it out as it's a bloody jinx for cold and snaw...could this be the source of the Fife snaw shield..???

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEM ensemble mean at +180 

The mean always flattens things slightly and that's still a good flow. 

[Mr Frost]

Evening all

Few snapshots from the UKV and ECM.

Tuesday 12:00

 

 

Wednesday 12:00

 

 

Thursday 12:00

 

 

Friday 12:00

 

 

Snowfall risk before and after those timeframes - inland (higher) parts of the NE get absolutely buried on the latest UKV...especially later in the week.

Looking further ahead check out that cold pool to our NE/E on the ECM - 08/02 and 09/02. 

Not bad for us either!

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Norrance]

BBC weekly weather on Countryfile not that impressive unless you live up on a hill. High ground buried though. Fronts get further North and no Beast at least until next wekend. Hope that they are wrong! 
A cold day here today with just a flurry of something wintry first thing. Yesterdays skiff surviving in shaded bits. Hopefully a couple of snow showers this evening!

[Bullseye]

Just now, Norrance said:

BBC weekly weather on Countryfile not that impressive unless you live up on a hill. High ground buried though. Fronts get further North and no Beast at least until next wekend. Hope that they are wrong! 
A cold day here today with just a flurry of something wintry first thing. Yesterdays skiff surviving in shaded bits. Hopefully a couple of snow showers this evening!

Not sure how the BBC countryfile forecast works but certainly the BBC evening weather after news seems to be running off the ECM 0z, at least that is what I could gather from reading MOD thread this week. Sure someone can correct me on this if not. 

[snawbaw]

Nowt but dry cauld for us in Lochaber me thinks

[Snowandrocks]

Higher inland parts of Aberdeenshire are already buried so could be some serious depths if any of that comes off.

[Gogoslo]

Took a walk down to the beach today.  It had been very icy over the last couple of weeks but ice now melting quickly. It certainly wasn’t as cold today as it has been.   Managed to see a loan Dolphin though.  
Looks like we are right on the marginal line for any snow this week.  

[Norrance]

5 hours ago, A Winter's Tale said:

It looks like the mean temperature for Glasgow airport will be around 1.3C. Since 1973 only 1979, 1985, 1987 and 2010 had lower values and this month is tied with December 2009 and February 2010 as the fourth coldest since 1988 with only December 1995 and January and December 2010 being colder. So a notably cold month but more so for the lack of above average temperatures rather than severe low temperatures. The maximum has reached or exceeded 7C on 5 occasions and lows have been 2C or higher only 6 times this month - both totals fewer than 2010. 

January 2021 reminds me a little of February 2010 which was statistically notably cold but the weather was mostly quiet and unexciting. In the past milder months with a more active Atlantic have seen more potent episodes of cold and snow. Numerous  other months had lower highs than the 1C recorded this month and January 2015 and 2019 both had two snowfalls of more than 2 inches compared to one fall of 4cm this year. On the other hand some parts of the south east of Scotland and places with height have had a more than decent January for snowfall. 
Overall it has been a very respectable if unremarkable month with the first half in particular seeing lots of fine winter sunshine, some very cold nights including -11C and  a number of snowfalls leaving a covering. The second half has been generally below average but cloudier and less cold at night with a few attempts at frontal snowfalls being to marginal to deliver more than a brief cover of slush.

Certainly a helluva lot better than recent years (especially the last couple) but we’ve lacked established blocking injecting proper cold air and delivering more widespread, heavier and less marginal snowfalls and longer lasting and deeper snow cover. Hopefully the next couple of weeks we’ll be rewarded with something special. The past few weeks have seen the models promise tantalising Synoptics only for it to be watered down leaving us on the margins of significant cold - sadly this hasn’t been too uncommon in the last nine years. For once it would be great if we could finally see the promise of proper high latitude blocking coming to fruition. If it does, then we could be looking at the most significant cold spell in the heart of winter (mid Jan-mid Feb) since 1991. A more watered down version could still be fairly notable like February 2009 but there’s still the chance things go pear shaped like Feb 2012. At the very least early February is looking cold with some chances for snow.

I’m keeping an eye on the potential frontal snowfall next week which could  be impressive in some areas. I’m hoping we all end up with a good dumping of snow but I always keep expectations low in set ups like this. More often than not we see frontal snow end up further south than originally forecast, or too marginal or light for accumulations. Here’s hoping we end up with an all snow event which settles. 

Though the CET will be relatively cold most of Southern and Central England has had several intrusions of warm air this month giving a likely average of between 3 and 3.5C there most likely compared with a probable 1 to 1.5C north of the border. Even here near the coast my last double figure temperature was on 18th December and since the 21st December only 3 days have maxed over 6C and only one of them over 7C. There is no sign of anything above average in the forecast so no wonder the hills are buried in snow now and likely to remain so. Hopefully the ski areas can open this month to take advantage after missing out so far both this Winter and the snowy on the hills end to last winter and Spring.

Further North and in the isles the difference has been even more noticeable. Ice pancakes on the Creed near Stornoway and frozen inlets on Shetland. Very unusual.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Norrance

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Quote

Another stunning day here -8 last night ,-5.6 at noon and back down to -5.7 now.  Dead calm too that looks like changing soon....

 

[Bullseye]

Thankfully the ECM looks to have backtracked somewhat towards the GFS and UKMO (although UKMO not the 10/10 run like this morning but still great). JMA has nudged uppers of around -10 into Scotland by next weekend. All that after the midweek snow chances! 

[Klippie]

I noticed some light cloud has floated over so I took a temperature reading a frigid -36.4deg/C that's bloody cold in anyone's book.

The ground is only -3.4deg/C and air holding steady at -0.6deg/C.

Shame there are no showers forecast overnight...just being snaw greedy again.

[Penicuikblizzard]

It’s now looking less likely to be a beast from the east,,,but still cold chances yes! snow chances yes! particularly high ground and North of the Central belt

Edited January 31, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

2 hours ago, Klippie said:

Chilly day today it topped out around 3deg/C...the temperatures dropped pretty rapid when the sun went down currently sitting at -0.6deg/C.

I'am still not sure about Tuesday and Wednesday even this close it all seems to be up in the air...someone is going to get a decent snowfall I'am just not sure it will be here.

I was in the shed this afternoon and this was sitting there...I couldn't bring myself to take it out as it's a bloody jinx for cold and snaw...could this be the source of the Fife snaw shield..???

Is that like the GTI version? Aluminum chassis, full soft foam grips, reinforced scoop finished in French burgundy red?

That baby deserves tae shovel deep snaw. Truly born fir it.

 

EDIT

Snaw symbols for fort SS fae the morn's nicht through tae friday early doors. Cannae complain. Bring it oan.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Scottish-Irish Skier

[Mr Frost]

2 hours ago, Bullseye said:

Not sure how the BBC countryfile forecast works but certainly the BBC evening weather after news seems to be running off the ECM 0z, at least that is what I could gather from reading MOD thread this week. Sure someone can correct me on this if not. 

Yes - spot on.

Pretty shocking but has been mentioned/charts matched up by numerous members on this forum over the last few weeks.

You will see them use the morning ECM run right through until the evening for every forecast! Solely ECM/Meteogroup data/charts.

As we all know on 6 February 2018, BBC Weather changed supplier from the government Met Office to MeteoGroup, after being required to put its weather services out to tender. (Source Wikipedia)

Current example below.

ECM run from this morning...

BBC look ahead forecast earlier this evening...

 

Here is the current chart for that same day from the latest ECM run.

Their forecasts will catch up eventually.

They only use the Met Office nowadays for weather warnings.

The BBC are basically on the day ten rollercoaster with the model thread! 

I can’t take the Countryfile forecast or any others seriously anymore - only because we are weather enthusiasts who check the ECM charts daily. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Mr Frost

[edo]

loving the @Mr Frostregular updates, its awesome and much appreciated

expecting some in depth analysis of the week ahead from @LomondSnowstormand @Kirkcaldy Weather soon 

good walk with the whole family today.... 4 kids loving walking around the woods ..... well with the promise of a starbucks if dont moan. Was only a few miles from here at Kinclaven and amazing they had clearly had  quite a bit more snow over the last while.

Walk was a treacherous ice fest and at one point i effectively sledged down a hill without a sledge whilst trying to rescue one of the kids 

keeping a close eye on Tue to see if can make it 2-2 in marginal events here this winter with 2 busts and 1 win.

[Allyw12]

6 minutes ago, edo said:

loving the @Mr Frostregular updates, its awesome and much appreciated

expecting some in depth analysis of the week ahead from @LomondSnowstormand @Kirkcaldy Weather soon 

good walk with the whole family today.... 4 kids loving walking around the woods ..... well with the promise of a starbucks if dont moan. Was only a few miles from here at Kinclaven and amazing they had clearly had  quite a bit more snow over the last while.

Walk was a treacherous ice fest and at one point i effectively sledged down a hill without a sledge whilst trying to rescue one of the kids 

keeping a close eye on Tue to see if can make it 2-2 in marginal events here this winter with 2 busts and 1 win.

@edo I really hope it’s not marginal again getting the impressing it going to be a rain event for us in Perth.

[GoldenJackel]

It’s snowing moderately and started to lie immediately. Our first lying snow since Christmas Eve, wonderful!

[Quinach]

The briefest of snow showers earlier has covered everything in a dusting of icing sugar, lovely stuff.

Currently -1.0c, so temperature not dropping quickly like the last few nights.

Still none the wiser about the snow prospects for later this week, the various sites have us down for rain/sleet/snow.  So, the word marginal again with improving chances as the week progresses.

Interesting and smelly side effect of the cold weather this month.

We're surrounded by fields of rapeseed (going to be murder for hayfever in the spring but that is another story).   In the last few days the calm conditions have made you all too aware of a malodorous brassica smell.   Opinion of the neighbours and one of the farm workers is that some of the rapeseed leaves have been frost damaged and are now releasing VOC's as a consequence.  Consequently a light breeze is going to be appreciated in the next few days!  

[snowidea]

5 hours ago, Stormeh said:

Just back from a beautiful walk around the local countryside. I hope to see this area covered in snow over the next week or so 

 

 

 

 

Oooh you've got a border. Our little guy is 18 weeks old. 

Chilly and crisp here today. 

[Dundeeguy]

Light snow again here in dundee, all nice and white

[Sanserit]

Have thoroughly enjoyed lamppost watching this evening, around 2cm of sna fallen so far and hopeful of a wee bit mair before morning.  Just realised that my snow shovel (the very same gti model that @Klippiepossesses) is still in my shed...do I get son to retrieve it in morning or will that jinx everything?

Currently -0.4c / -1.3c / 1005.08hPa, feels a lot colder tho when standing at the back door trying to get two dogs to leave their playground.

[edo]

46 minutes ago, Allyw12 said:

@edo I really hope it’s not marginal again getting the impressing it going to be a rain event for us in Perth.

If not this tue I'm confident about next weekend not being marginal.... First time this has happened but my phone pinged snow alert and looked out and a nice little surprise covering and lying very easily. 

[Hairy Celt]

More brilliant weather pics here today, people are getting pretty good at this!  Just one from me - a lot of the time on our afternoon walk I was too busy not falling on ice over to be thinking about taking photos, but this view couldn't be ignored - Wyvis seen over the Raddery farms.

We did the garden bird watch yesterday and scored a big 0 . Couple of pigeons flew over so the don't count. And I heard a blackbird in the neighbour's patch.