Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Penicuikblizzard]

No problems with marginality on this chart

I’d suggest a shovel would be required

[Ravelin]

Just been out and measured 6 to 7cm on the wall in the garden that was pretty much clear yesterday morning. Pretty wet stuff though, but what survives today should survive the weekend easily, especially after an overnight freeze tonight. We really have had at least patches of snow in the garden for nearly all of the last month to 6 weeks.

[Snowandrocks]

A reasonable covering of snow here too and still snowing - bit wet but more than I expected.

[Quinach]

After over 12 hours of moderate rain, we have actually had heavy wet snow for the last hour or so.

So, we have snow cover!

The worst possible quality mind, but this winter is so frustrating that anything is better than the cold rain that has normally been served up.

Now 0.5c, overnight low hovered around 1 to 2c.

Bird feeders mobbed by finches today.  Colourful mix of Chaffinches, Bramblings, Goldfinches and Greenfinches...

Edited January 29, 2021 by Quinach

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Grey, damp, windy and miserable about sums it up but the heavy rainfall never materialised here and the warning is now cancelled.

As others have mentioned some exciting model output this morning and I look forward to watching it all sink south in the coming runs.  That’s a joke (I hope) but veteran model watchers will confirm it’s happened more than once before now! Where is @Kirkcaldy Weather - he’s been predicting this for weeks!

In the more reliable timeframe I’m looking forward to another sunny and cold weekend. Many of us have really done well on that front lately!

[JoeShmoe]

This will do for Edinburgh 

[Northernlights]

Well we  eventually had a night of sleet at 1.5c.Now a clearence coming in from the NE across the Firth. Settling snow level about 150 metres just 50 metres above me all round the Firth.Top fields of neighbouring farm are white just a mile away. Lots of ice still left now covered in water. Still 1.5c .

[Ravelin]

45 minutes ago, Quinach said:

Bird feeders mobbed by finches today.  Colourful mix of Chaffinches, Bramblings, Goldfinches and Greenfinches...

Get counting, in my opinion it counts as 'home learning' too......

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[Quinach]

19 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Get counting, in my opinion it counts as 'home learning' too......

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Neighbour mentioned their kid got it as official schoolwork from the school this morning!

The truculent teenagers here would claim the end of the world if they got this, infinitely better than the algebra they are enjoying this morning though :-)

Sky clearing to light grey now, snow stopped and temperature up to 0.9c so the ever familiar drip, drip everywhere.

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

Just been out and measured 6 to 7cm on the wall in the garden that was pretty much clear yesterday morning. Pretty wet stuff though, but what survives today should survive the weekend easily, especially after an overnight freeze tonight. We really have had at least patches of snow in the garden for nearly all of the last month to 6 weeks.

I was just trying to summarise the winter so far for here, and reckon definitely colder than average by a good 3C, and slightly wetter, and slightly snowier (bearing in mind some winters here can be all but snow free).  The coldness and rain has meant there's been plenty of days when the local roads and pavements have been slippery (despite the council guys' efforts) and grassy ground has been largely frozen for a few weeks.

One aspect that has gone a bit unnoticed is the relative lack of wind, apart from the odd short spell.

The way the weather's going over the next couple of weeks seems favourable for some proper cold although as has been pointed out, this far north we can rather ironically miss any eastern cold and sit under Atlantic gloom instead.

[101_North]

50 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

This will do for Edinburgh 

If only this was nailed on and not fantasy for now! Just look at that snow machine revving up 

 

 

[Ravelin]

17 minutes ago, Quinach said:

Neighbour mentioned their kid got it as official schoolwork from the school this morning!

Got to be better than staring at a PC/Laptop/Tablet/Phone for an hour! Not everything can be learned through a small screen or a book, and feeds in to a very useful project.

Anyway, GFS 6Z delays the potential cold somewhat.....

  

With a bit of consistency showing in the models, if not always the exact pattern or timing, it's going to very very irritating if something along these lines doesn't come off. 

Oh, still snowing here but not sure how much it is accumulating. Definitely wet stuff on the ground even if the snow falling doesn't seem too bad.   Temp 0.6/0.5C currently, so climbed just a half a degree or so from the overnight values.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Ravelin

[metallikat34]

11 minutes ago, 101_North said:

If only this was nailed on and not fantasy for now! Just look at that snow machine revving up 

 

 

I was promised a true “Forther” event this winter!

[101_North]

43 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Get counting, in my opinion it counts as 'home learning' too......

Big Garden Birdwatch | Join the fun - The RSPB

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Got our pack in the post this morning - I almost feel guilty for tearing that tree down now 

[blitzen]

Morning.

I swear these stats have hardly moved over the last 24/36hrs other than the wind a little more northerly and a little stronger!   2.9c/2.6c/NNE/12mph/997.3.   The drizzle persists!

Loving the outlook charts everyone is posting though.   Fingers crossed!

 

This is a coloured pic!

Edited January 29, 2021 by Blitzen

[Benvironment]

2.2C and snowing here....which I wasn't expecting tbh. As everyone else has said, decidedly manky for the last couple of days but still holding on to about 5cm of snow cover up here.

[edo]

29 minutes ago, 101_North said:

If only this was nailed on and not fantasy for now! Just look at that snow machine revving up 

 

 

I love that chart, looks just like I picture the radar being when the beast arrives so I can watch all the showers go north and south of me  

In 2018 we only had about 2 big showers hit here but to highlight the luck factor in 2010 we were battered many times in convective set ups. 

Starting to get quietly optimistic, more so due to the SSW having happened seems like it could be plausible. 

[asjmcguire]

4.3C (already been up at 4.9C). Yuck.

Definitely no snow!

[Stormeh]

Good to see the charts have not backtracked this morning. Exciting model watching over the next few days to see where we end up. Hopefully a big juicy easterly with the North Sea snow machine firing up and bringing plenty of heavy snow showers and streamers pushing across all of Scotland

Before all that we should keep an eye on Tuesday with the possibility of a snow event. Obviously it will be marginal again and thats if the precipitation gets this far north but at least the possibility is there and something to keep an eye on.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Hawesy  I’m just doing my best to stay calm, looks like the models will be trying to figure out if it will be a solo scandi high, solo Greenland high or like BFTE with a retrogressive scandi - Greenland high but maybe with that pacific linkup which is what I would lean toward currently. Wrf nmms have shown a streamer to develop tonight for the last few days and can see signs of streamers looking at the radar currently in the north east. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@Hawesy  I’m just doing my best to stay calm, looks like the models will be trying to figure out if it will be a solo scandi high, solo Greenland high or like BFTE with a retrogressive scandi - Greenland high but maybe with that pacific linkup which is what I would lean toward currently. Wrf nmms have shown a streamer to develop tonight for the last few days and can see signs of streamers looking at the radar currently in the north east. 

Always nice to see the Forth/Clyde streamers setting up

[Benvironment]

The persistence of the cold is remarkable, given what we've had to endure in recent years. January currently has a mean of 1.4C up here, which easily makes it the coldest January I've recorded since moving here in 2010. The next coldest was Jan 2011 with 1.9C. But also the coldest month since March 2013 and its 0.7C. A few days left to go, which means it could still edge up a tad and possibly match Feb 18 with its 1.6C.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Benvironment

[Ruzzi]

I presume going by the MetO weather warnings for Tueaday/Wednesday that they're expecting the front to stall before reaching Scotland. Be intriguing to see the faxes as the raw output still has snow reaching Central Scotland 

[101_North]

This talk of beasts and charts etc has brought back some great memories 

28th Feb 2018!

Red Warning for Central Belt valid from 3pm! 

Shortly after 3pm this arrived 

(please forgive the idiot who was so excited he shot it in portrait)

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by 101_North

[Northern Strath]

Feasgar math guys. Haven’t managed to post for a few days but can report winter is still strapped to stilts. Have managed snow fall each day this week, though it didn’t accumulate a great deal more. It picked up in the last 24rs though, snowing through the early hours and all morning accumulating 10cms, total snow depth now around 34cms

Plenty tree and branch debris visible over the last few weeks from snow weight

 

Cairngorms from roadside Loch Morlich the other day were just a wall of winter 

 

 
Would echo comments regarding the impressive/ relentless cold. The vast majority of days have been at or below zero. Although snow depth and temps are nowhere near 2009/10 levels it’s been up there as the most impressive January since then. Apologies for the mega-post. Hope everyone is grand