Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Benvironment]

It's a bit of a novelty having a slow thaw instead of the usual 'wash and go'....although looks like that might make a quick return tomorrow. Still have 11cm up here, which despite the drizzle 'n' snizzle 'n' sleet (try saying that ten times) is relatively unchanged from a few days ago. 2.5C today and very calm.

[pdiddy]

Interesting that the yellow warning seems to exclude Edinburgh, but the narrative detail includes the city?:

SW Scotland, Lothian Border

Dumfries and Galloway

East Lothian

Edinburgh

Midlothian Council

Scottish Borders

West Lothian

[Puffy MacCloud]

I see the Met Office have included me in their yellow box for tomorrow, just, but of more immediate interest is the current temperature of 7.8 degrees C! If it gets into double figures I'm getting the speedos on, the lounger out and I'll be grabbing me some rays. Except it's overcast. Still, there'll be Vit D out there somewhere.

Temp as above up from a minimum of 2.8deg.C at midnight, humidity 96%, dead calm, pressure 1011.7hPa steady and there's been 0.8mm of rain so far today.

[Ravelin]

Well we still seem to be in the cold corner of the country today by the sounds of it, with a 'high' of 1.4C so far today. Despite that there's a definite thaw going on, which is doubly noticeable given the covering of snow wasn't much more than superficial in most places anyway.

MetO have 'upgraded' me for tomorrow to First Class, but I'll believe this just about as much as XC Weather.....

It'll probably change again in an hour or two.

[101_North]

21 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

Interesting that the yellow warning seems to exclude Edinburgh, but the narrative detail includes the city?:

SW Scotland, Lothian Border

Dumfries and Galloway

East Lothian

Edinburgh

Midlothian Council

Scottish Borders

West Lothian

We've been surprised a few times this winter but tonight would be the biggest surprise of the lot to be honest. 

[jellybaby1969]

Took a walk down the beach with my 3 spaniels..felt almost early spring like. 8c no breeze and no need for a coat. Can only see a very wet day tomorrow for most...maybe some wet snow above 200m but I think even that's marginal.

[shuggee]

Temp dropped from 5.5C to 3.1C in last two hours - that cold from the north east is making a comeback in these parts.

[101_North]

GFS has the temp here dropping to 2c by 6pm and 1c by midnight. The Met Office have it sticking at 3c.

Temp has dropped to 2.6c on the garden sensor after being closer to 4c earlier. I'll be keeping an eye to see if it tracks down like the GFS or sticks to roughly what it is now as per the Met Office. Could make the difference to what happens overnight. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by 101_North

[asjmcguire]

Oh... I think the rain bucket is starting to thaw out....

[Penicuikblizzard]

4 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

There will be two fronts but I’m thinking sleet / freezing rain for most of us and a bit of snow for the high ground and mountains as the 528 dam is barely even in the NE when the first front is going through   dewpoints around 0 for some at that time especially further north and west with 850 temps around -2 to -4 so a bit too messy for me, after the second front moves through the flow goes east then north east getting the colder air back in which is likely to be on Friday. 
 me when I looked through the ensembles, full of many cold options some with split tropospheric PV, I’ll still say it’s not a forecast plenty more runs of the same kind before I call it but with favourable MJO and the recent / ongoing strat warming events it’s reasonable to see why these charts are coming out  

this was my favourite     

Here is another two for you I think you will like

[shuggee]

12z GFS a cold run for Scotland. Today's mild blip gone in the blink of an eye.

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

2 minutes ago, shuggee said:

12z GFS a cold run for Scotland. Today's mild blip gone in the blink of an eye.

 

It certainly looks like something is slowly brewing to our NE

[101_North]

1 hour ago, 101_North said:

GFS has the temp here dropping to 2c by 6pm and 1c by midnight. The Met Office have it sticking at 3c.

Temp has dropped to 2.6c on the garden sensor after being closer to 4c earlier. I'll be keeping an eye to see if it tracks down like the GFS or sticks to roughly what it is now as per the Met Office. Could make the difference to what happens overnight. 

OK so the GFS 12z have the temp a little higher at 2c by midnight - garden says 2.1c now so still dropping. Sadly accompanied by some awful drizzly pish! 

[Northernlights]

Fascinating break to the north across the Firth  early this afternoon as the mist and drizzle cleared off to the south over the Cairngorms. If you magnify the photo you can see a snow capped Morven in Caithness lit up by the sun and beyond are blue skies.

 

Not so  visible  on the far horizon are small  snow showers which came further south in the late afternoon and  became very pink in the setting sun . A really wintry sky to the north in the late afternoon. Currently clear and temperature falling   Now 0.5c with a ground frost very visible.

Several thousand seagulls have again landed in the neighbouring  stubble fields in the late afternoon to roost for the night very unique for my area. Still think real winter is coming in from the NE and maybe quickly.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Northernlights

[asjmcguire]

46 minutes ago, 101_North said:

OK so the GFS 12z have the temp a little higher at 2c by midnight - garden says 2.1c now so still dropping. Sadly accompanied by some awful drizzly pish! 

Ours was dropping, but has gone up again by nearly a degree in the last hour.

[Quinach]

Afternoon big improvement on the dreich morning with some breaks in the cloud around sunset allowing some rather decent cloudscapes.

Max today of 4.4c but temperature has plummeted since 4pm, already down to -1.7c.

Met Office still bullish on the snow tomorrow, marginal me thinks in reality...

[howham]

-0.4C.  Resigned to rain tomorrow if there us even any precipitation.  Not in warning area.

[JamesM]

I am sure it will rain but the warning area seems to have a sticky out bit to specifically cover my house! 
 

XC Weather bullish as ever

Today has been grey with a bit of drizzle. Felt mild.

 

[asjmcguire]

9 minutes ago, JamesM said:

I am sure it will rain but the warning area seems to have a sticky out bit to specifically cover my house! 
 

XC Weather bullish as ever

Today has been grey with a bit of drizzle. Felt mild.

 

Whereas the warning area specifically avoids me, AGAIN.

[101_North]

39 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

Ours was dropping, but has gone up again by nearly a degree in the last hour.

Still dropping slowly. 1.9c now. 

[asjmcguire]

2 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Still dropping slowly. 1.9c now. 

Up to 2.4C now. This is probably why the warning area stops before me.

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

Several thousand seagulls have again landed in the neighbouring  stubble fields in the late afternoon to roost for the night very unique for my area. Still think real winter is coming in from the NE and maybe quickly.

The latest output from the ECM would back up your Seagull weather model.....

      

A long way off yet though and not something I've seen from the ECM or any other model recently.

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Quote

Bit of moon balancing this evening

 

[jellybaby1969]

My opinion for tonight and going into Thurs \ Friday is that the spine of the country over 250m will see snow and away from coastal areas. Some will do very well I expect area east of Glasgow with plus 250m altitude will be ok.

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

Temperature back up to 2.5c here it’s definitely most likely a rain event,  I’m not expecting any surprises this time round.   Oh well plenty opportunities in the coming weeks by the looks of it.