Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[LomondSnowstorm 12,303]

Bit of a tricky forecast this one - I do feel the dewpoints are a bit high through the day tomorrow but it does get a bit better over the next few days. Currently sitting at 0C here and pretty stable for the last couple of hours.

As the showers come in tomorrow (around midday or so) the upper air temperatures are at least not prohibitively high, although generally you would want at least -8C from an easterly:

Temperatures at the surface though are, on the face of it, a bit high:

I would say that the NMM certainly has a tendency to overdo the coastal modification, and as it has something similar I guess I wouldn't be that surprised if it was maybe a degree or so cooler:

The modelled sounding for midday tomorrow for here is not entirely discouraging, with the freezing level at 950hPa, but with it being saturated at lower levels the dewpoint and wet bulb temperature are certainly on the high side at lower levels:

By midnight the situation is marginally better, with dewpoints certainly lower at the surface, and I think it's not inconceivable that, if the modification is indeed a bit overegged by the models we could well end up with sleety/wet snow during the day turning to lying snow by nightfall, at least if you're not at the immediate coast and have a little bit of altitude on your side:

We can see more generally that the modelled dewpoints aren't especially far off 0C, and if you're looking at heavy precipitation (which the modelling seems to suggest) it's possible that we can end up with a situation not dissimilar to the other night where it was marginal but many areas saw lying snow:

Part of the issue is the wind direction and speed - inland it's a bit more northerly and very weak but near the coast we can see a relatively fresh ENErly wind:

 

This is decent for the shower track, but will cause a fair bit of modification, potentially more than the previous brief easterly snowfall.  However, when showers do get further west this should be less of an issue there:

(I should say I started this post before the 15Z UKV came out but it looks pretty similar up to this point!)

I think our best shot of some lying snow more widely to lower levels is Monday morning - temperatures will be relatively low as winds drop a bit but there'll still be fairly widespread precipitation around:

Beyond this, dewpoints are likely to continue dropping but as we move closer to the centre of the high it'll be very dependent on the angle of the flow - really you need to be fairly near the coast later Monday into Tuesday for precipitation as it won't move so far inland. But certainly there's a lot of opportunities there as the flow gets slacker and surface temperatures lower.

I do think the heavier precipitation may help us, as KW says - if you hit a streamer it's possible we can nudge temperatures enough in our favour to get the snow to settle and then progress from there, but it might be a bit of a losing battle at points.

Midweek certainly looks interesting as well - a lot depends on the angle of attack from the next low but there's a real possibility of a frontal snowfall without marginality concerns:

 

The ECMWF similarly flags up this risk from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night :

In summary, lots to keep an eye on over the next few days. As we saw this morning small scale features can pop up at short range, and we already have some snowfall on the models on every day from tomorrow right out to Friday and Saturday. The medium term picture is getting a little more complex with the possibility of the block toppling a bit, but I do think the big picture still seems very promising with the continued forecast of a SSW and some signs of a quick reaction in the troposphere. While we know this doesn't guarantee cold and snow, it's certainly a major help as far as creating the conditions necessary for high latitude blocking to continue to dominate.

On a personal note, I should also say that from tomorrow I'm (temporarily) moving to Coatbridge to stay with my girlfriend, so my weather reports may be a bit confounding if you're looking to see what the showers are falling as in Fife😂

 

Edited January 2 by LomondSnowstorm

[Spindrift2017 994]

Proper winter's day today - don't think the temperature ever looked like getting above freezing - seemed to stay quite a bit colder than forecast, so the cold air must've firmly entrenched itself in the Clyde valley.

Belatedly made it out for a wander:

 

 

Edited January 2 by Spindrift2017

[Mair Snaw 6,450]

Well its raining again... 😂😂😂😂

[101_North 11,514]

I suspect it's been a while since Edinburgh Airport hit -5c two nights running. Managed -6c last night but I suspect the temp will rise later tonight instead of dropping further. Home thermometer is around -3c. Not sure how accurate it is but not unusual for the airport to be colder!

[Benvironment 5,522]

WHAT

A

DAY!!!

🙂 🙂 🙂 

Gawd I love this country 🙂

Oh, plus 0.5cm of new powdery snow this morning...which no doubt stopped various paths in the Lomonds from being death traps for a few hours this morning at least 😉

[101_North 11,514]

4 minutes ago, Benvironment said:

WHAT

A

DAY!!!

🙂 🙂 🙂 

Gawd I love this country 🙂

Oh, plus 0.5cm of new powdery snow this morning...which no doubt stopped various paths in the Lomonds from being death traps for a few hours this morning at least 😉

Thought that myself up the Pentlands today too. The snow this morning was the difference between several hours walking and turning back at the first hill! Still went on my hoop a few times and saw plenty of others do likewise 🤣😂

[Cheggers 5,805]

Seen this reported today on the river Carron. 

 

[Zerouali lives 339]

1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:

Well its raining again... 😂😂😂😂

I was out walking in Aberdeen last night and tonight and is does feel marginal for wintry precipitation but showers continue to fall as rain. Plenty ice and frosted car windows but it just refuses to snow here!

[LomondSnowstorm 12,303]

49 minutes ago, Benvironment said:

WHAT

A

DAY!!!

🙂 🙂 🙂 

Gawd I love this country 🙂

Oh, plus 0.5cm of new powdery snow this morning...which no doubt stopped various paths in the Lomonds from being death traps for a few hours this morning at least 😉

Lovely!

I can certainly attest to the paths on the Lomonds being deathtraps - had to avoid the paths entirely on the way back down East Lomond yesterday and trample down the grassier parts (which were fortunately not too bad). Also a bit of a hairy drive back down to Falkland from Craigmead with the yellow ski warning light on the whole time😳😂

[Benvironment 5,522]

43 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Thought that myself up the Pentlands today too. The snow this morning was the difference between several hours walking and turning back at the first hill! Still went on my hoop a few times and saw plenty of others do likewise 🤣😂

It’s remarkable isn’t it, how big an effect even a dusting can have. Makes it nice and grippy if it’s dry. 

I have to say I was surprised how much snow there was in the Ochils today. I had a trawl of Instagram and Twitter yesterday to see what folk were posting and to gauge how much snow there was....and there really didn’t seem to be as much as south of the Forth. A pleasant surprise but wish I had taken my snowshoes as it was perfect conditions for them. Quite a few people ski touring too. So nice to see. Might try to get back for a bigger outing on Friday after the Ochils have been topped up a bit 🙂

[Benvironment 5,522]

3 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Lovely!

I can certainly attest to the paths on the Lomonds being deathtraps - had to avoid the paths entirely on the way back down East Lomond yesterday and trample down the grassier parts (which were fortunately not too bad). Also a bit of a hairy drive back down to Falkland from Craigmead with the yellow ski warning light on the whole time😳😂

Ochils MR were apparently called out to attend an accident at Craigmead today.

[101_North 11,514]

-4c here now. Coldest for a while! 

[NUT 3,058]

BRICK COLD!!!!! no idea of the temperature but really is frozen solid 

[Mair Snaw 6,450]

Raining still.. 😂😂😂 not even a hint of sleet. 

[Polar Side 1,547]

Just looked out and it’s snowing quite heavily at the moment. 👍❄️

[AFC Snow 457]

Woke up to a covering of snow! Difficult to tell exactly how much has fallen from here but it looks like it was very wet and has now frozen.

[mistyqueen 2,806]

Morning all! Snaw shields intact here, calm, cold and dry. I'll take that over horizontal rain any day! Looks like there's a * possibility* of white stuff here Thursday. I won't look out the snaw shovel though, that would just mega jinx the whole set up! My bedroom weather station tells me it's 53c outside. Hhhhmm. Something not quite right there! In reality it's around the 2c mark. 

[101_North 11,514]

Been some heavy snow showers already this morning! Wasn't expecting that 😀

[snowidea 2,285]

8 hours ago, Mair Snaw said:

Raining still.. 😂😂😂 not even a hint of sleet. 

Maybe you're turning into Rob Mckenna 😜 (see So Long & Thanks For All The Fish). 

[snowidea 2,285]

10 hours ago, Cheggers said:

Seen this reported today on the river Carron. 

 

What is it @Cheggers? 

[Mr Frost 12,555]

Morning all!

Coldest morning so far here this Winter! -5c!

Glorious Winter day ahead.

🥶

 

 

Edited January 3 by Mr Frost

[Mair Snaw 6,450]

Still nothing here.. its wet and that has a very slight icy hint to it but once again no Snaw...

[edo 7,080]

45 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Been some heavy snow showers already this morning! Wasn't expecting that 😀

The rest of us were...... Quite tedious these constant snow reports from you 🥱

Frosty and now cloudy in Luncarty, I will be on for a sleet report later and to look at pictures of sledging in the 101 ski resort. 😁

Can't believe bad luck @Mair Snawis having, at least we have been dry and cold here rain in this set up is a bit depressing. 

[Mair Snaw 6,450]

Cold rain now... somebody in the south east thread is selling up to move to Scotland, i feel i should warn her to stay away from Ellon 😂😂😂. Its just rubbish really.. keep the snaw pictures and videos coming guys and girls..

[Hawesy 5,812]

Morning all, fear not @Mair Snaw you’re in good company. Still not a trace of snow sighted here in winter 20/21. 😁 Currently 2.4c/1.7c and raining in Pittenweem.