Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[A Winter's Tale]

The cold spells of mid Dec 2009-mid Jan 2010 and late Nov-early Dec 2010 remain the benchmark for cold spells as far as I’m concerned. Snow depths more 10cm, lying snow and below average temps for over two weeks, ice days, -10C minima in the cities with -20c in the highlands. Since then there have been 10 snowfalls of 2 inches plus, 4 with depths 3 inches +. There have been only 4 occasions with 2cm+ on the ground for 5 days (Jan 2015 (2), Jan 2018, Feb/Mar 2018). Jan and Mar 2013 and Jan 2021 have been the only prolonged cold spells of note. January 2021 has been the only occasion temps have dropped below -10C at Glasgow whilst -15C has been pretty rare in Scotland over the last decade. 

This winter has certainly been closest to 2010 (09/10 in particular) in terms of how cold it has been in general. Hopefully this cold spell will rank alongside those in 2010 which would put  2020/21 as a winter up there with category as 09/10 and 10/11. 

[JamesM]

A pleasant sunny winters day although a biting north east wind. A few flakes blowing in the wind occasionally but that has been it here. 
 

Is that a more substantial line of showers lining up to head for the Forth later? Seems a bit of an ENE flow so if it lines up favourably, they might make it through to give me a dusting. 

[jellybaby1969]

Just checked the traffic cameras..looks like a shower has made it across to port glasgow

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Just had some Demon intensity graupel a minute or 2 ago. Brought a instant light covering.

[jon_d1983]

Not sure if it’s just my eyes but the heavier showers on the radar seem to become less i year as they close in on the land. Any know why this is?? 

[Ruzzi]

18 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm not convinced you'll be measuring in inches or describing drifts as mini once this is over. Here's the 12 hour precip charts from the latest Euro4. The 1st is up to 6am tomorrow and the 2nd up to 6pm tomorrow:

Well worth a wee zoom in, if the Euro4 is even half right on the precip totals then some lucky folk are getting way more than a foot of snow in 24 hours. If it's right then some lucky punters are on for 2+ feet of snow:

The Euro4 does usually overestimate a bit but we'll see....

I'm on the very southern edge of what the euro4 is showing as the really heavy stuff. 

If it had to pan out as per that graphic then I think the prime spots will be Larbert, Denny, Falkirk, Kilsyth, Slamannan, Grangemouth.... With that being said, the graphic will not be spot on so I'll take my chance being at the very southern edge of the heaviest stuff shown on the graphic. 

Falkirk could get absolutely smashed tomorrow! 

I really can't see the MetO avoiding a red warning for the areas I just mentioned, so long as nothing changes between now and tomorrow morning. 

Also, I have to say, for this locale, it's starting to feel like a very similar scenario to the feb/march 2018 event, we got a good few inches on the Tuesday night, a brief lull and then Wednesday morning lead to the red weather warning being issued followed by an utter pasting!

Has the same sort of feel about it, if I get a few inches tonight, and wake up to a red weather warning in the morning I'll be getting peeled off the ceiling by the Mrs

She's already had it in for me today for playing frozen songs and 'let it snow' on alexa

..... And she thought I was pulling her leg when I told her we really needed to get this... 

 

[Klippie]

I've been watching the radar on and off all day I couldn't believe what I was watching...north to south of the UK has been packed with streamers and a guess where the gap in them was...Fife...you couldn't write it an east wind blows and we get hee haw snaw.

Devistated would be an understatment...so much for the forecast saying Fife would be buried today...only with them slavering pish that is.

I hope most have had better luck than us.

[Benvironment]

Waiting for the AA this morning

[aggy]

34 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm not convinced you'll be measuring in inches or describing drifts as mini once this is over. Here's the 12 hour precip charts from the latest Euro4. The 1st is up to 6am tomorrow and the 2nd up to 6pm tomorrow:

Well worth a wee zoom in, if the Euro4 is even half right on the precip totals then some lucky folk are getting way more than a foot of snow in 24 hours. If it's right then some lucky punters are on for 2+ feet of snow:

The Euro4 does usually overestimate a bit but we'll see....

I don’t believe I’ve mentioned this today so far but that pink splodfe is Cumbernauld

[drm]

7 minutes ago, jon_d1983 said:

Not sure if it’s just my eyes but the heavier showers on the radar seem to become less i year as they close in on the land. Any know why this is?? 

Think it will die off quickly and we may see a flake fluttering in the wind ,while the main action gets going further south areas in the central belt near the Forth Clyde streamer will see good depths over the next day or two 

[TinyTim]

6 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

I'm on the very southern edge of what the euro4 is showing as the really heavy stuff. 

If it had to pan out as per that graphic then I think the prime spots will be Larbert, Denny, Falkirk, Kilsyth, Slamannan, Grangemouth.... With that being said, the graphic will not be spot on so I'll take my chance being at the very southern edge of the heaviest stuff shown on the graphic. 

Falkirk could get absolutely smashed tomorrow! 

I really can't see the MetO avoiding a red warning for the areas I just mentioned, so long as nothing changes between now and tomorrow morning. 

Also, I have to say, for this locale, it's starting to feel like a very similar scenario to the feb/march 2018 event, we got a good few inches on the Tuesday night, a brief lull and then Wednesday morning lead to the red weather warning being issued followed by an utter pasting!

Has the same sort of feel about it, if I get a few inches tonight, and wake up to a red weather warning in the morning I'll be getting peeled off the ceiling by the Mrs

She's already had it in for me today for playing frozen songs and 'let it snow' on alexa

..... And she thought I was pulling her leg when I told her we really needed to get this... 

 

I was going to say... you'll need that to dig out your dug

[aggy]

7 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

I'm on the very southern edge of what the euro4 is showing as the really heavy stuff. 

If it had to pan out as per that graphic then I think the prime spots will be Larbert, Denny, Falkirk, Kilsyth, Slamannan, Grangemouth.... With that being said, the graphic will not be spot on so I'll take my chance being at the very southern edge of the heaviest stuff shown on the graphic. 

Falkirk could get absolutely smashed tomorrow! 

I really can't see the MetO avoiding a red warning for the areas I just mentioned, so long as nothing changes between now and tomorrow morning. 

Also, I have to say, for this locale, it's starting to feel like a very similar scenario to the feb/march 2018 event, we got a good few inches on the Tuesday night, a brief lull and then Wednesday morning lead to the red weather warning being issued followed by an utter pasting!

Has the same sort of feel about it, if I get a few inches tonight, and wake up to a red weather warning in the morning I'll be getting peeled off the ceiling by the Mrs

She's already had it in for me today for playing frozen songs and 'let it snow' on alexa

..... And she thought I was pulling her leg when I told her we really needed to get this... 

 

Your just down the road from me 

[Hairy Celt]

28 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Sure it's not dandruff? 

Yeah. It lasted about 5 mins. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Nice flakes with this shower

[Zerouali lives]

17 minutes ago, jon_d1983 said:

Not sure if it’s just my eyes but the heavier showers on the radar seem to become less i year as they close in on the land. Any know why this is?? 

I thought this earlier too.

 

Anyway, it looks like we could be in for a longer period of light snow this evening - large area of light blue heading our way soon

[Cheggers]

9 minutes ago, aggy said:

I don’t believe I’ve mentioned this today so far but that pink splodfe is Cumbernauld

And Denny

[thebigyin]

8 minutes ago, drm said:

Think it will die off quickly and we may see a flake fluttering in the wind ,while the main action gets going further south areas in the central belt near the Forth Clyde streamer will see good depths over the next day or two 

While you may be right, it has got quite dark and snowy outside?  Sun is going down right enough which may account for the dark bit!  They definitely seem to be evaporating as they near the coast to an extent (would love to understand why if someone can elaborate?), and the strength of the showers on the return is noticeably less than the stuff going on the the south now, but it's snowing so I'll take it! EDIT Getting a lot heavier actually  

[aggy]

1 minute ago, Cheggers said:

And Denny

Absolutely

[Sunny Leith]

31 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

is this the convergence line or start of it? .. somewhere getting hit by that later this afternoon anyway!

If its needing any help with directions to here then let me suggest it moves west-south-west. 

[shuggee]

Just glancing at the radar - that'll be the start of the central belt snow train?

[Sunny Leith]

1 minute ago, shuggee said:

Just glancing at the radar - that'll be the start of the central belt snow train?

Aye. And the train is late. 

[drm]

3 minutes ago, thebigyin said:

While you may be right, it has got quite dark and snowy outside?  Sun is going down right enough which may account for the dark bit!  They definitely seem to be evaporating as they near the coast to an extent (would love to understand why if someone can elaborate?), and the strength of the showers on the return is noticeably less than the stuff going on the the south now, but it's snowing so I'll take it! EDIT Getting a lot heavier actually  

I'm not sure maybe it's energy gets lost to the convergence line to the south only a guess would be great if it did the opposite

[jon_d1983]

8 minutes ago, Zerouali lives said:

I thought this earlier too.

 

Anyway, it looks like we could be in for a longer period of light snow this evening - large area of light blue heading our way soon

Fingers crossed. I realise it’s greedy wanting more when other haven’t had any....but...fingers crossed we get some top up 

[JoeShmoe]

Just now, drm said:

I'm not sure maybe it's energy gets lost to the convergence line to the south only a guess would be great if it did the opposite

I'm sure back in 2010/2018 the showers hit the coast and then intensified (orographic lift?) but today does seem the opposite - so far at least

[Klippie]

Twenty minutes ago I moaned aboot nae snaw...noo its lashing doon...ye canny win..!!!