Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[EastLothianSnow]

4 minutes ago, Serac said:

Hhhhmmm : both BBC and Metoffice show near enough 24 hours of heavy snow here starting late afternoon / evening. That’s a ramp from them 

Similar here, but we aren’t in the amber warning area, interesting one. 

[cragonmore]

13 minutes ago, Zerouali lives said:

A potential streamer to hit Aberdeen just before midday perhaps...

Not sure as it’s already about level with Aberdeen now and there is still quite a southwards drift which can be seen when you run animation. May end up with most of that line of showers coming in just south between Aberdeen and Stonehaven.

[Ravelin]

Snow shower on again at the moment but they have been getting less frequent as the morning has gone on. I think that after today, for us in the NE the story is going to be more about temperature, and potentially at the end of the week the wind. There's a hell of a lot of snow lying, the most recent of which has been pretty dry and powdery, so even if it doesn't snow again drifting could become a problem.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Ravelin

[Zerouali lives]

Just now, cragonmore said:

Not sure as it’s already about level with Aberdeen now and there is still quite a southwards drift which can be seen when you run animation. May end up with most of that line of showers coming in just south between Aberdeen and Stonehaven.

Yeah possibly although that line is generally north of Aberdeen at the moment and the southerly drift is only very subtle - anyway, that's it on now...

[LomondSnowstorm]

10 minutes ago, EastLothianSnow said:

How’s it looking to the east of Edinburgh @LomondSnowstorm? Are we likely to be in the firing line at some stage in my neck of the woods? 
 

MetOffice app showing heavy snow/heavy snow showers here from this evening and most of tomorrow, but we aren’t in the amber warning area so not expecting too much. 

I do think you guys should do pretty well, theres no particular reason the showers would avoid East Lothian, certainly compared to the issues Edinburgh faces where we need a bit more of a northerly tilt, and you'll still be getting heavy stuff well into Wednesday as well even if it's not quite as good today for whatever reasons 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Latest Euro 4 got 10-15cm very widely, some spots got 20-30cm, locally 40cm+ Though i wouldn't quite take it literally yet as a streamer or something could be 10-20 miles either way. Though there are increasing signs of a forth streamer too.

[sn0wman]

06z EURO4 run gives a little pocket of 70cm+ snow around Falkirk...  And 15cm+ widely through the Central Belt. One comment I have is that the showers so far appear to be more widespread and less oriented in convergence lines than modelled. Will be interesting to see if this holds through tomorrow. 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Latest Euro 4 got 10-15cm very widely, some spots got 20-30cm, locally 40cm+ Though i wouldn't quite take it literally yet as a streamer or something could be 10-20 miles either way. Though there are increasing signs of a forth streamer too.

UKV is also in agreement. quite widely 10cm. locally 20-30cm.

[JoeShmoe]

Snowing heavily here now !

[Cheggers]

6 minutes ago, sn0wman said:

06z EURO4 run gives a little pocket of 70cm+ snow around Falkirk...  

 

I do hope it verifies

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Cheggers

[LomondSnowstorm]

4 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

UKV is also in agreement. quite widely 10cm. locally 20-30cm.

Fascinating to see such differences between the two, not in distribution (although the euro4 does go a bit further south west with it) but in totals. I did think the Euro4 was a 'snowier' model but moreso because it seems to have a bit of a cold bias, and I assumed the precipitation modelling was pretty similar (although it could be that the UKV models a little melt during daytime for whatever reason). 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Fascinating to see such differences between the two, not in distribution (although the euro4 does go a bit further south west with it) but in totals. I did think the Euro4 was a 'snowier' model but moreso because it seems to have a bit of a cold bias, and I assumed the precipitation modelling was pretty similar (although it could be that the UKV models a little melt during daytime for whatever reason). 

Ukv often under does snow depths in these showery set ups? Gave nothing for here and dundee and stuff last night, thinking it will be a combo of the 2

[thebigyin]

15 minutes ago, Zerouali lives said:

Yeah possibly although that line is generally north of Aberdeen at the moment and the southerly drift is only very subtle - anyway, that's it on now...

yeah, looking good I think for a top up - fairly heavy at the moment.  There is a track south but based on the pressure for the moment closer to land in the NE there is still a wee "drag" north towards the end to keep it true and straight...though that changes later on in the day as it undoubtedly shifts to a more have southerly tilt.  I will stick my neck out and say we have a good few hours of on/off heavy showers here...

[Penicuikblizzard]

There are a lot of showers coming off the North Sea only just to the north and south of Edinburgh you couldn’t make this up lol 

The best snow shield going in Edinburgh

Edited February 8, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[Dundeeguy]

Both models have between 10-15cm of snow here in dundee by end of tomorrow . 5cm here just now on the ground 

 

missing out on the amber zone by about 5/10 miles that shouldn’t have too much of an effect should it?

[Quinach]

18 minutes ago, sn0wman said:

06z EURO4 run gives a little pocket of 70cm+ snow around Falkirk...  And 15cm+ widely through the Central Belt. One comment I have is that the showers so far appear to be more widespread and less oriented in convergence lines than modelled. Will be interesting to see if this holds through tomorrow. 

Impressive alignment of Aberdeen with the area of least snowfall!

I wonder if they take into account large urban areas (heat island = less snow) as there is also an alignment of low snow totals with Newcastle and Stockton-on-Tees/Hartlepool.  Even Edinburgh/Dundee seem to be influencing the displayed totals.

[JoeShmoe]

15 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

There are a lot of showers coming off the North Sea only just to the north and south of Edinburgh you couldn’t make this up lol 

The best snow shield going in Edinburgh

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:

Both models have between 10-15cm of snow here in dundee by end of tomorrow . 5cm here just now on the ground 

 

missing out on the amber zone by about 5/10 miles that shouldn’t have too much of an effect should it?

Have a zoom in on Kirkcaldy even in an easterly they still refuse to include me totally cool we have seen weather events in the past exceed what the warnings have said / perform better for those outside the warnings 

[A Winter's Tale]

If the euro4 snow predictions turn out to be fairly close to the mark then I suspect we’ll see the amber warning cover a wider area and I’d be shocked if we don’t see a red warning in the areas projected to have 30cm+. The met office are currently going for 25cm at best in the amber area which could turn out to be a massive underestimate. I hope members in the amber warning area have their cameras and metre sticks at the ready (I don’t think a ruler will be big enough in some places!).

Euro4 suggests widespread 10-30cm in central Scotland. I think Bearsden in is in the 20-25cm zone which is close to the Beast from the East. I’d be more than happy to have half of what’s being modelled which would be an excellent event. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

26 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Ukv often under does snow depths in these showery set ups? Gave nothing for here and dundee and stuff last night, thinking it will be a combo of the 2

Hard to tell, we haven't had the UKV publicly available for previous big easterlies, but I don't remember the Euro4 overestimating totals particularly in non-marginal setups. 

[blitzen]

1 hour ago, edo said:

We can still catch showers just frequency will likely be less and more intense further south... We are in the warning area for the latest Amber so that's good.... Or bad on recent met success

Met yellow warnings didn't materialise for me, so I am NOT confident!!

[101_North]

26 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

There are a lot of showers coming off the North Sea only just to the north and south of Edinburgh you couldn’t make this up lol 

The best snow shield going in Edinburgh

It's quite impressive! In the last 20mins I've had one pass Currie to the north and now one to the south 

[Ross B]

40 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Latest Euro 4 got 10-15cm very widely, some spots got 20-30cm, locally 40cm+ Though i wouldn't quite take it literally yet as a streamer or something could be 10-20 miles either way. Though there are increasing signs of a forth streamer too.

A foot of snow into the Glasgow area, interesting...  It looks as if its more towards Southern Glasgow too, which would be the opposite of the BFTE where North West Glasgow got the worst(best) snow.

[blitzen]

1.6c/-3.1c/E/ ...and boring!

 

[aggy]

Shall we take a sweepstake of the sweet spot totals ?