Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[edo]

i have been so glued to charts and here i never even knew Scotland were playing  tremendous result.... im guessing a lot of years since a win at twickers ..... maybe a help having no crowd.

[Polar Gael]

Christmas has come early: first win at Twickenham in 38 years and Beast from the East incoming! Doesnae get any better than this! 

 

Back on topic: odd sleety blobs now and currently 1.3C/1C. 

[doctormog]

12 minutes ago, Frazzled said:

Sleet and rain finally turned to snow in East Aberdeenshire. Measured 30mm of rain in last 24hrs. The Coy Burn (a tributary of the Dee) has burst it’s banks. It’s now 1c here and will be treacherous with the freezing temps from tonight ⛸

Nice to see the photo on the BBC forecast.

[scottishandy]

44 minutes ago, edo said:

Oh and big flakes starting to be mixed in at mcdonalds broxden roundabout 

Cornflakes Mcflurry?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Oh flooer ae Scotland, when wull we see, yer like again....

Moderate wet snaw here noo; T dropping pretty quickly.

T = 1.6 °C/ DP = -0.7 °C.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The UKV seems to be starting to pick up on these convergence lines and, bloody hell some of these 3 hourly totals are impressive:

 

[lorenzo]

[snowlessayr]

if I can get any snow I will be pleased, looks more likely next weekend. ECM has some decent snow as a front struggles to get here. 

not expecting any showers here so I can hopefully get a nice suprise. Anyone wanna make a bold prediction that I will see snow? 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Scottish-Irish Skier said:

Oh flooer ae Scotland, when wull we see, yer like again....

Moderate wet snaw here noo; T dropping pretty quickly.

T = 1.6 °C/ DP = -0.7 °C.

Don't say you didn't ask for it!   Well played, Scotland!

[LomondSnowstorm]

3 minutes ago, snowlessayr said:

if I can get any snow I will be pleased, looks more likely next weekend. ECM has some decent snow as a front struggles to get here. 

not expecting any showers here so I can hopefully get a nice suprise. Anyone wanna make a bold prediction that I will see snow? 

I reckon you'll see, at least a few flakes

Seriously though I do think the models might be underestimating the westward extent of the showers. Take the current radar for example - the UKV initialised 6 hours ago has this:

And yet the radar shows:

a) much more extensive precipitation up the east coast than modelled and b) there's a moderate shower already past the M74.

Once you factor in the low dewpoints and I don't think you can really rule out a covering anywhere over the next 4 days. Not promising anything, but if you can get a shower through on this flow:

I wouldn't rule anything out

[Hairy Celt]

A few flakes getting blown about in the wind now. More than I expect (deserve?) so all good so far.

NW forecast is just plain silly. At every iteration, it shows a little ppn at the first time frame, but none for any later. As if it's looking (uselessly) at the radar and saying, we don't expect ppn but I can see there is some, so I'll put it in anyway. Someone should train it to ignore the radar.

[aggy]

So I could change work to Wednesday and stay home Monday @LomondSnowstorm do u think

inwouod get more snow on Monday esp looking at those UKV maps 

[Penicuikblizzard]

16 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

The UKV seems to be starting to pick up on these convergence lines and, bloody hell some of these 3 hourly totals are impressive:

 

Fife and Tayside are going to be buried

The ECM snow depth chart from 4 days ago could be real for those areas,,,don’t see there being a foot in Edinburgh though

Edited February 6, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[Hairy Celt]

3 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

I reckon you'll see, at least a few flakes

Seriously though I do think the models might be underestimating the westward extent of the showers. Take the current radar for example - the UKV initialised 6 hours ago has this:

And yet the radar shows:

a) much more extensive precipitation up the east coast than modelled and b) there's a moderate shower already past the M74.

Once you factor in the low dewpoints and I don't think you can really rule out a covering anywhere over the next 4 days. Not promising anything, but if you can get a shower through on this flow:

I wouldn't rule anything out

You're ignoring the fact that the radar is claptrap for many places.

[Sawel]

30 minutes ago, Polar Gael said:

Christmas has come early: first win at Twickenham in 38 years and Beast from the East incoming! Doesnae get any better than this! 

 

Back on topic: odd sleety blobs now and currently 1.3C/1C. 

Wanna bet? There could be 2 Beasts from the East if the models are to be believed. 

[Hairy Celt]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Don't say you didn't ask for it!   Well played, Scotland!

Oh put them away 

[AFC Snow]

Just been out for a walk. Tractor has been along most of the local streets leaving big piles.

[LomondSnowstorm]

10 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

You're ignoring the fact that the radar is claptrap for many places.

True, it hasn't exactly been the best over the last few days for a lot of us, but whatever it is did at least move in a vaguely coherent way so you never know

The road surface at Uddingston and Sanquhar are 'moist' (oo-er?) which is the closest I can get to a proper on the ground verification

Edited February 6, 2021 by LomondSnowstorm

[snowidea]

Bit grey and damp here today. Husband frantically Facebook trolling our English rugby loving friends. Fingers crossed for some white stuff for all

[blitzen]

1.5c/0.9c... are we at last starting to move in the right direction maybe?

Phoned Electricity emergency number, who were very helpful and confirmed that the lighting hadn't been reported.  They asked hubby to go and count the number which were out which turned out to be eight.   They are sending someone to have a look.  Damn sure they are not going to do me out of my OCD!

So...That's 2 out of 3 utilities having had to be dealt with so far this weekend!   They say these things come in 3s.  The other one is...eek!!

 

 

[Zerouali lives]

Sporadic light snow all day in Aberdeen but nothing lying - precipitation too light and the ground too wet. Due points are tumbling now although the light snow it tending to break up leaving dry conditions and just the odd flurry of graupel which will lie now in any heavier, more persistent bursts

Edited February 6, 2021 by Zerouali lives

[Northern Strath]

Few cms overnights and some showers today. With max temps of -4 and -5c in the week ahead we were digging paths today before it goes solid. A mere dusting compared to the cracking images coming out of Aberdeenshire 

These guys are also making use of the paths. All roads lead to.. eh nuts 

Beasterly probably won’t bring much more than further cold here but will enjoy the collective joy and despair on here. Currently -1.5c and snowing, celebrating Scotland’s effort with a dram  

[Quinach]

Temperature has dropped to 0c and a nice crunchy sound starting to come from the slush.

Stopped snowing about an hour ago and can actually see some stars for the first time in ages.

Now to wait for the showers.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

@edo..... that is making me absolutely speechless! , i just wanna like faint. 

[Ruzzi]

My nerves are still shattered at the thought of missing out on the streamers, I'm not worried about westward extent, but I can't help but think I'll miss the worst of the convective snow due to being just that wee bit too far south. I think the northern most parts of lanarkshire will fair ok, Kilsyth for example and then it looks a given that Angus, Perth and parts of Fife will be dumped on. 

Reasons to remain hopeful but with the cracking updates from @LomondSnowstorm

I reckon Tuesday evening into Wednesday will be my best chance but we shall see. Stranger things have happened I guess. 

The thing that is letting me keep the faith is the synoptic chart for the day of the Red weather warning in 2018.... A clear south of east draw from the continent albeit with a stronger flow, so many a surprise may materialise but my nerves would be far reduced if that flow just crept a bit more north of east to raise the prospects for the central belt a bit more. 

Here is the synoptic chart for the day of the red weather warning for anyone else that's jittery