Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[LomondSnowstorm]

One thing to watch - if we do manage to keep things going through to Wednesday night, the -40C (threshold for polar low formation and the like) 500hPa temperatures start coming into the North Sea:

[Snow Monster]

Been snowing here all day on and off but not lying. Snow now lying so I guess the colder air has eventually reached here just north of Dundee.

[shuggee]

1.8°C and miserable all day. Sleety rain in the heaviest drizzle. Snowline at 300m

 

And for all these piddly snowblowers - meet Daddy

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

41 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

The GEM puts the convergence line a bit further north and buries Perth - not easy to pin down exactly where this will end up even by looking at the isobars but I do think we're starting to see the signs of more substantial organised snow through Monday and Tuesday:

Wednesday again looking nice, this time with a proper ENErly flow:

No sign of an end on the GEM either really, snow still piling in from the North Sea on Friday morning:

Looking snowy

Anyone having a go at predicting some totals

Edited February 6, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[edo]

scandi high anyone

would lead to throwing snow at us surely

[Norrance]

37 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:

Heavy wet snow here for past 30 mins in dundee . Just under 100 metre altitude though looking great here for week ahead 

Just a little altitude making quite a difference. Sleety down by Riverside but a graupel / wet snow mix 50 mtrs higher up and trying to lie.

[edo]

5 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Looking snowy

Anyone having a go at predicting some totals

@Hawesydid it but he was a bit imby and only did it for fife 

not like there is many people on here these days to total up for 

Edited February 6, 2021 by edo

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

    Chance for something pretty special  

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

I've noticed a bit of a northward trend on the isobars in the North Sea since last night on the UKV:

from:

to:

 

Hard to compare because there aren't like for like precipitation total charts (it goes from 3 hour to one hour resolution the further out you go) but likely a positive trend as far as convection and the angle of attack goes for more central areas through Monday e.g.:

I had previously noticed a general 'sagging' of the flow up to now which, while not uniformly terrible, probably wasn't the best thing, but good to see that trend being reversed.

It’s looking more like a due easterly now rather than the SE element which brings more people into the game particularly through the central belt, probably more showers through towards the Glasgow area now

[blitzen]

32 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

One thing to watch - if we do manage to keep things going through to Wednesday night, the -40C (threshold for polar low formation and the like) 500hPa temperatures start coming into the North Sea:

Stop it!!

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It’s looking more like a due easterly now rather than the SE element which brings more people into the game particularly through the central belt, probably more showers through towards the Glasgow area now

Most models are wanting the biggest snow streamers to develop across Fife and Tayside. 

[edo]

1 minute ago, Blitzen said:

Stop it!!

 frosty from the MT has stolen LS login details

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

Reasonable consensus now between the GFS and UKMO on Monday - some nice relatively parallel isobars with 1020hPa running Aberdeen to Skye and 1015hPa near the Galloway coast:

As a result we see this convergence line moving in later on Monday across central Scotland:

ICON flags up that sort of idea too(bear in mind this is hourly precipitation):

The next bit is dependent on the timing of the low undercutting but I'm happy with how things are looking this afternoon.

We can see the GFS does move it a bit further north but basically has this convergence line sitting around the latitude of Loch Tay to South Lanarkshire (and all the way down the east coast), from Monday morning through to Tuesday lunchtime:

Will that enhance shower activity right down the east coast

[GrrClark]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Chance for something pretty special  

I'm on the southeast side of East Lomond and if that happens it is going to make for some spectacular weather watching.

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, edo said:

looking at all charts we would be ridiculously unlucky to not see something decent with a week of non marginal chances but i understand the nerves. i count decent these days as 3 inches

Fnaar. And what does Mrs Edo say to that?

[blitzen]

3 minutes ago, edo said:

 frosty from the MT has stolen LS login details

If I remember correctly (and I do) then Burnt Fish Trousers and CatchmyDrift were (at times) let's say a tad overly enthusiastic about Polar Lows!!

[Penicuikblizzard]

12 minutes ago, MAXcrazystorm said:

Most models are wanting the biggest snow streamers to develop across Fife and Tayside. 

Yeah it’s been like that for a few days now,,I mentioned a few times the heavier stuff looks to be forecast north of the central belt,,,but in reality it’s only a forecast and streamers can crop up out of nowhere once the snow machine gets going 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Penicuikblizzard

[blitzen]

Nooooooo!...Would you bloody (oops, swear filter!) believe it!!  The street lights haven't been fixed!!   It's inky black out there.

101's tree would be better than this!   Someone's got it infamy!!

[edo]

10 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Fnaar. And what does Mrs Edo say to that?

 she thanks me for my service and the 4 kids

[LomondSnowstorm]

28 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

@LomondSnowstorm you're on a full-scale rampede today it's good to see, if I was still in Scotland I'd be very excited.

Do you think any possible convergence zones just happen at random due to the weather pattern or will they be defined by the convergence zones which the landmass dictates? As we know in this type of flow the Forth will create its own convergence so does this then dictate all the other streamers up and down the east coast? I remember at the BFTE that I had my own fairly consistent streamer making landfall just south of Berwick and it seemed to coincide with a much stronger Forth streamer.

I guess it's a bit of both, you can end up briefly with these convergence zones in places you wouldn't expect but if it's near to a topographical line it'll probably end up there anyway because of where the showers die out/ keep going due to the topography, if that makes sense. The Tay-Clyde streamer that we saw once or twice (I think that was 2009/10, maybe?) isn't really an obvious streamer but equally if the wind direction is ENE or a bit north of that you will probably get one then.

I can't say I'm that familiar with behaviour like this (where it's like a wave propagating perpendicular to the flow) but it is very aethestically pleasing to see:

 

 

[blitzen]

12 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Fnaar. And what does Mrs Edo say to that?

At least he's not scratching?!

[edo]

2 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Nooooooo!...Would you bloody (oops, swear filter!) believe it!!  The street lights haven't been fixed!!   It's inky black out there.

101's tree would be better than this!   Someone's got it infamy!!

get a magnetic rechargeable light from amazon and stick it on the lampost

i have them in the kitchen they are brilliant but not sure do a waterproof one 

[blitzen]

9 minutes ago, edo said:

get a magnetic rechargeable light from amazon and stick it on the lampost

i have them in the kitchen they are brilliant but not sure do a waterproof one 

You rotter!!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Blitzen

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Quote

Whiteout conditions here now, swirling blowing snow with drifting snow barrelling across the fields.  Radar has had no snow falling here today but it has snowed all day.  Hard to measure depth because of the swirling winds but I would guess at least another 10-12 cms today.  Freezing hard now too.

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

The NMM seems to be modelling the current situation pretty well as far as dewpoints go (freezing north of Dundee and on higher ground, 1-2C elsewhere). Find the freezing level, subtract an hour for Central European Time and this is when, roughly, you should expect the 'easterly proper' to begin: